Important Volatility Period: August 2nd - 5th
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(BTCUSDT 1M Chart)
Let's take a moment to check the trend before the new month begins.
There have been two major declines so far, and a third major decline is expected next year.
For the reason, please refer to the "3-Year Bull Market, 1-Year Bear Market Pattern" section below.
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My target point for 2025 is around the Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 (133889.92).
However, if the price surges further, it could touch the Fibonacci range of 3 (151018.77) to 3.14 (157296.36).
If it rises above 133K, it's expected that prices will never fall below 43823.59 again.
Since the HA-Low indicator hasn't yet been created on the 1M chart, we need to monitor whether it appears when a downtrend begins.
Based on the current trend, the HA-Low indicator is expected to form around 73499.86.
More details will likely be available once the movement begins.
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The basic trading strategy involves buying in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and selling in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
However, if the price rises above the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a step-up trend is likely, while if the price falls below the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a step-down trend is likely.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading approach.
The further away from the HA-High indicator, the more likely it is that the DOM(60) indicator will act as a strong resistance when it forms.
Therefore, if the current price and the HA-High indicator are trading far apart, and the DOM(60) indicator forms, it is expected to face significant resistance.
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Looking at the current trend formation, the high trend line is drawn correctly, but the low trend line is not.
This is because the StochRSI indicator failed to enter the oversold zone.
Therefore, the low trend line is marked with a dotted line, not a solid line.
Therefore, what we should pay attention to is the high trend line.
We need to see if the uptrend can continue along the high trend line.
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(1D chart)
If we use the trend lines drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts to predict periods of volatility, the periods around August 5th and August 13th are significant periods of volatility.
By breaking this down further, the volatility periods are around July 31st, August 2nd-5th, and August 13th.
Therefore, trading strategies should be developed based on the assumption that the volatility period extends from July 30th to August 14th.
The current price is moving sideways in the 115,854.56-119,177.56 range.
This range, the HA-High ~ DOM (60), is a crucial area to consider for support.
This will determine whether the price will continue its upward trend by rising above 119,177.56, or whether it will turn downward by falling below 115,854.56.
If the price falls below 115854.56, it is expected to meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and reestablish the trend.
The HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is forming at 99705.62, and the DOM (60) indicator on the 1W chart is forming at 119086.64.
Therefore, when the price declines, it is important to check where the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart forms and determine whether there is support near that point.
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The On-Board Value (OBV) indicator within the Low Line ~ High Line channel is showing a downward trend.
If the OBV falls below the Low Line, the price is expected to plummet.
Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor the movements of the OBV indicator.
The Trend Check indicator is a comprehensive evaluation of the StochRSI, PVT-MACD Oscillator, and On-Board Value (OBV) indicator.
The TC (Trend Check) indicator interprets a rise from the 0 point as a buying trend, while a decline indicates a selling trend.
In other words, a rise from the 0 point is likely to indicate an uptrend, while a decline is likely to indicate a downtrend.
Currently, the TC (Trend Check) indicator is below the 0 point, suggesting a high probability of a downtrend.
However, if the TC (Trend Check) indicator touches a high or low, the trend may reverse.
In other words, touching a high increases the likelihood of a reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, while touching a low increases the likelihood of a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
When such movements occur, it's important to consider the support and resistance levels formed around the price level to determine a response.
In other words, consider the support and resistance levels formed at the current price level.
As a significant period of volatility approaches, prepare to transition from box trading to trend trading.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
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