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Suppyanddemand

JICPT| Crude oil penetrated key zone with room downside!Hello everyone. The recent weak China weighed on crude oil and commodity currencies, e.g. AUD, NZD. On the daily, the key zone failed to serve as a firm holder after two tests. The below 57.33- 59.50 is the refine of the weekly demand zone. On the weekly, we can see price retreated from the bearish structure around 77. With the slowed China's economy in the 2nd half of the year, crude oil lacked fundamental support. I think the oil related stocks would also be under pressure as well. So bullish buyers should be cautious.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by JICPT
US30 SHORTPrice has entered new highs but so far has been respecting resistance. Im sure price will try to test resistance 1 more time at the 618 fib mark which is the green highlighted square below my resistance level (if not 618 then at least my 382). I feel like price will be here for the next week or so or maybe even consolidate in this area until we see a retest then back to an uptrend. I really find it hard to believe to enter for a buy considering were are in new highs. My 20 MA is also above price which is a sign of a downtrend. But man I hope my analysis is solid and entered my green area for a solid sell! Let me know what you guys think! Entry : 35500 Exit : 35150(-27 extension)
OANDA:US30USDShort
by KairosTrades
XAUUSD | Market outlook US Fed matched wide market forecasts of keeping the monetary policy intact but the quarterly economic projections were the key. The policymakers not only revised up the near-term GDP and inflation forecasts but also pumped the rate-hike expectations, mostly known as dot-plot. As per the latest update, US GDP may grow 7.0% in 2021 versus 6.5% previous whereas the PCE figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is now seen at 3.4% for 2021 and 2.1% for the next year. US dollar index (DXY) jumped the most in over a year. US 10-year Treasury yields rallied the most since early March to 1.58% Best to sell on rallies around 1846-56
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by DCFX-TA
NZD JPY - Ready and waitingHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour NZD JPY Monthly imbalances Using the monthly time frame, it is clear to identify the buying imbalance and selling imbalance here. At this moment in time, there is no opportunity to sell as price has not yet reacted to the zones in place. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 81.30- 84 JPY established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance low, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The low of 59.3 NZD to JPY was a structural low point where price indicated two key criteria; 1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. 2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural low using the three month chart* what is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow. The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 59.30-59.50 NZD JPY. Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Three month chart* Monthly chart Weekly imbalance plan From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to buy in for the positional buyers and within the 68.00 - 69.80 zone. There reason for this zones important is due to two reasons; 1. Price aligns with the weekly low referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. 2. When forming a rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bullish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 71.96-72.00. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle . Screenshot two - Fractal completion. This shows the clear pattern that price will be 'broken' to create a new high here. I. The low has been confirmed by the previous weekly touch of the candle wick high. - this nets off. II. The body low has been netted by the wick high. Fibonacci pathway Using the daily timeframe, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. The outcome from the Fibonacci extension tool. This has been used for demonstration purposes for the analysis, however the technique in place here is how the top down analysis is predicted and executed. Daily imbalance levels The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances. The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle* Cross pair Analysis Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. The second chart provides key data for the weekly and monthly using the major pair currencies* GBP JPY is considered a minor pair - but with the correlation of XAU and commodity pairs the GBP also is a major pair so in this case with considered, it is analysed for the performance. Using the cross asset of NZD JPY vs XAU USD, while cross referencing VIX and US 10 year yields. The basis behind this, is to use the risk based approach of the NZD being a commodity currency where a produce of Gold and the correlation between the strength of the NZD and XAU in a 'risk on' approach. Particularly for the NZD using the imbalances as reference points. The use of variable instruments of the VIX and 10 year US yields are due to the 'risk off' scenario plan. Note; I VIX and 10 year - spikes in session Fundamental decisions do not necessarily result in a 'jolt' in the price on every occasion. This opens the door to a strong positional buying opportunity and openness to credit risk take on. II. The capitulation waters here on the economic cycle is ever present where buyers and sellers in the short term are profit taking and engineering liquidity from the transfer from the impatient to patient traders. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
AUDCAD Opportunity 1:6RRPrice has been in a big range since 3rd June which means there will be a lot of retail activity trading these movements. We've seen 3 strong rejections off the marked resistance so we'd like to expect this is becoming weak. Price is currently sat at a 4hr Demand Zone which is also a 'Key Institutional Level' (meaning the market makers will have orders placed waiting around this level) . A fake out has already happened so i would be on the look out for a bullish movement followed by a retracement back into the zone before we see a big bullish move, breaking the Retail Resistance and onto the strong marked 4hr Supply Zone. This is a 1:6rr set up so if all goes to plan would be a nice trade towards the back end of the week. Note - This analysis is for educational purposes and is not to be taken as a signal or financial advice. Safe & Happy Trading Guys & Girls
Long
by Danparkin