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Deutsche Bank (DBK): Earnings beat but loan losses double We missed the optimal entry for Deutsche Bank (DBK), but the analysis was accurate overall. The earnings report showed some resilience with a revenue increase of 5.2% year-over-year, reaching €7.50 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of €7.30 billion. The stock reacted with a modest dip, but nothing significant. However, Deutsche Bank reported a notable rise in loan losses, which doubled to €494 million in Q3 2024 compared to €245 million a year ago, aligning closely with the €482 million forecasted by analysts. From a technical standpoint, our primary count still appears valid, though it’s a bit on the lower side. This could indicate that wave 3 might not be the longest wave in this count, which is atypical but possible as long as it’s not the shortest. We’re targeting a potential endpoint for wave 5 within the HTF resistance zone, aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci extension level, where we could look for a long position if the setup confirms. We will continue to monitor DBK closely as this potential target level nears and adjust accordingly.
XETR:DBK
by freeguy_by_wmc
Tesla (TSLA): Positioning for growth as Musk eyes record salesAs we anticipated in our last update, Tesla bounced right at the expected level following its earnings call. After posting better-than-expected earnings, TSLA shares surged up 20% on market opening. Tesla reported a 17% increase in net income for the September quarter, reaching $2.2 billion, which beat analyst expectations. Additionally, revenue grew by 8%, reaching $25.2 billion, just shy of the consensus estimate of $25.4 billion. Most noteworthy, Elon Musk hinted at a promising future outlook. He stated Tesla aims for a record-breaking quarter in vehicle sales, with potential growth of 20% to 30% in 2025. However, there is still cautious sentiment about whether this will follow the pattern of past announcements, where major news led to temporary rallies, followed by dips if expectations weren’t met. As we highlighted previously, a bounce here suggests a likely revisit to the range high. If the current trend continues, the next high could align with the trendline, potentially forming another lower high. For sustained upside, breaking this trendline with a solid push is critical. We’re closely watching these developments and will keep you updated on any relevant changes.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
3M (MMM): Building a Bullish Case Despite HeadwindsWith 3M's earnings yesterday, it’s the perfect moment to analyze the stock and assess the upcoming opportunities. The company is expected to have benefited from its restructuring actions, such as headcount reduction, likely lowering costs and improving margins this quarter. Its disciplined spending and restructuring savings could also boost profitability. Despite these positive factors, challenges in 3M’s packaging and expression, along with home and auto care divisions, may drag down its performance. Lower consumer retail spending on durable goods is expected to impact its Consumer segment's results. From a technical standpoint, 3M’s surge from the support zone recently was strong enough to shift the weekly trend from bearish to bullish. Such a structural change on the weekly chart is significant, as it's not common to see such a clean trend reversal. However, as often happens with sharp upward movements, we are now seeing a bearish divergence on the RSI. This divergence doesn’t mean a pullback is imminent but suggests that one could happen eventually. Looking at the daily chart, there may be potential for 3M to move higher if wave 1 isn’t complete. Even if earnings were positive, we should still witness a pullback. We are looking to build a position by layering bids at key levels. Our first target entry is the gap high, followed by the gap low, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level. If the price continues to drop, we’ll continue adding bids down to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Our stop loss will be set below wave (2) to safeguard the trade. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and could result in a drop to $56, though this scenario seems less probable for the near future.
NYSE:MMMLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Coinbase (COIN): Strong push ahead after Bitcoin surge!After our last analysis on NASDAQ:COIN two months ago, we saw another leg down into the golden pocket and the imbalances we were watching. These got partially filled, reaching around 50%, which provided the necessary strength for a push higher. This recent jump is largely due to Bitcoin's rise over the past weeks, as Coinbase, being a major holder of Bitcoin, has directly benefited from this positive development. This surge was strong enough to invalidate the bearish trend on the higher time frame, confirming that a bullish sequence is now in play. The biggest and closest resistance ahead is the VAH (Volume Area High) traded since November 2023. With the RSI currently overbought and showing a bearish divergence, a pullback could be on the horizon. However, we aren't too concerned about this unless the price drops below $160.50. The bullish outlook will only be invalidated if it dips under $145. One thing to note about NASDAQ:COIN is its heavy correlation with Bitcoin, which introduces more volatility. The crypto market is also playing a key role in the U.S. elections, with both Trump and Harris addressing the sector. This could provide some tailwinds for Coinbase in the future. In terms of the broader outlook, the potential wave ((iii)) could see a rise toward $263-$323, though this will take time to unfold. Given the market dynamics, it's better to remain cautious, but the setup looks promising. Overall, we continue to monitor NASDAQ:COIN closely, but we are more inclined to invest in Bitcoin itself due to the inherent correlation and volatility with the stock.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Uber (UBER): Missed the Rally? Here comes new opportunitiesIt's been a while since we last looked at Uber, and the stock has moved perfectly since then. Uber reacted exactly as expected to our desired area, but unfortunately, we didn’t buy any shares at the time. If you did, congratulations – this position is now up 60.8%! Shares of rideshare companies Uber Technologies and Lyft surged on Friday, following Tesla's underwhelming Robotaxi reveal. Uber has shifted its focus away from developing autonomous vehicles and is instead concentrating on expanding its marketplace for riders and drivers. This shift has created a robust network effect, making it increasingly difficult for competitors to match Uber's scale, according to a recent report by Business Insider. Uber’s asset-light business model, which doesn't involve owning or maintaining vehicles, has been financially successful, generating $1.7 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter. Now, Uber has reached a new all-time high, and if we look back at the chart, it's easy to see a clear and powerful pattern. After entering our desired area, Uber made a sharp V-shaped correction, followed by a key level retest. In a short period, NYSE:UBER turned bullish, marking a complete turnaround. We will be closely watching Uber Technologies' upcoming earnings report, scheduled for October 31, 2024. After this event, we’ll update our chart and look for possible new opportunities.
Editors' picks
NYSE:UBERLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
15
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Pattern Still Intact—What’s the Plan?Let’s quickly review our open position in $GILD. We’ve managed to turn the whole chart around, and I hope everyone who bought in had the strength to sit it out. It was a close call with the stop loss, but now we’re up significantly, and we’ve moved our stop loss closer to $65.46. So far, we’re up 17%, and we don’t want to dictate when to take profits. If you’re in, do your own research and take profits whenever you feel comfortable—it's all up to you 👍. If you take a closer look, you’ll see that NASDAQ:GILD has been following a nice upward pattern: a surge, then three candles down, then another surge. I’m not sure how long this pattern will hold, but as long as we don’t retrace too much, we should be fine. I also like that we’re respecting all the key levels. The RSI is about to be overbought, so we might see another three candles down, but this time it could be a deeper pullback. We’ll see how it plays out, but we’re very pleased with this swing trade so far. Congratulations to everyone who’s been riding this wave 🍾.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Gilead Sciences (GILD): First Take Profit in a High RangeGilead Sciences is now back trading at the high end of its range, and we’ve decided to take our first profit here. It’s crucial to respect range-bound trading, and there is a strong possibility of a pullback at this point. However, we don’t expect this pullback to reach the lower end of the range again but rather settle in the middle. If NASDAQ:GILD reclaims this range high, it could provide even more upside and new opportunities. We are also raising our stop loss to $65.80 to lock in gains. Gilead serves as our "natural hedge" against broader risk-on market conditions, and with a 40% bounce from the range low at the same time the S&P 500 is hitting new all-time highs, it’s clear that Gilead can benefit as well. We’re keeping a close eye on this stock, and if another opportunity arises, we’ll be ready to act.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
JD.com (JD): Massive 97% Rally—What's Next?We mentioned Chinese stocks a while ago, and finally, they're starting to pay off—big time. We bought shares of JD.com back in July, and after a small dip, the stock soared an impressive 97% in just 65 days. Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies are gaining momentum, fueled by continued stimulus efforts. September's PMI data beat expectations despite a decline in factory activity, which has further bolstered hopes for increased stimulus. Over the past week, JD.com's stock surged following the People’s Bank of China's aggressive monetary easing measures. The central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 9.5%. This move will inject around 1 trillion yuan (approximately $140 billion) into the financial system. The increased liquidity gives banks more capital to lend, easing financial pressures on businesses like JD.com that rely heavily on consumer spending and economic confidence. JD.com, often considered a barometer for China’s domestic consumption, has benefited significantly from this shift in sentiment, with investors betting that further stimulus measures could lead to increased consumer spending on e-commerce platforms. From a technical perspective, there's not much left to say—we took some profits on JD.com, as this parabolic rise could either continue or see a pullback before another leg higher. All indications point towards further gains for JD.com, as it has smashed through all resistance and trend channels with remarkable strength. Our stop loss is set at break even, and we’re letting this trade continue to run.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
3
Xiaomi (1810): Major Gains, Next Targets and Updated StrategyThe Hang Seng Index and its constituent stocks have been surging higher, with Xiaomi leading the charge 🚀. The setup we had on Xiaomi was quite similar to the one for Alibaba, featuring a tight stop-loss and a high risk-to-reward ratio, which, just like NYSE:BABA , worked out perfectly. Although we aimed to catch the end of wave (ii), we missed the entry by just a few HKD. Despite this, the position is now up an impressive 85% since we initially sent out the entry back in March. We have taken our first round of profits as we haven't locked in any gains yet, and we have moved our stop-loss to the break-even point. However, we are confident that Xiaomi will not revisit this level for a long time. We took profits upon reaching a key wave 3 extension level. While we expect further gains on the lower time frame, we must also respect what the higher time frame indicates. Whether it's longing wave (iv) or wave 4, the choice depends on whether we are right about the higher or also the lower time frame. On the higher time frame, we anticipate a maximum rise to 30 HKD before we see a significant correction. We believe there is still substantial upside potential for Xiaomi – it's only a matter of time. We'll keep monitoring both scenarios closely and act accordingly 📈.
HKEX:1810Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Light Crude Oil Futures: Mid East Tensions Fuel Price Surge!Light Crude Oil Futures (CL): NYMEX:CL1! As mentioned in our morning briefing, oil is currently extremely interesting, partly due to increasing tensions in the Middle East and the destruction of oil reserves there as well as in Russia. Consequently, oil prices have surged significantly. We are currently at a level of $85, but we still consider it quite likely that the Wave Y and the overarching Wave II have not yet concluded. We expect a three-part movement towards Y, with this Y anticipated to be in the range between 127.2% and 161.8% of a Wave C. This would place it between $63.2 and $57.4, nearly forming a double bottom with Wave ((b)) at $63.64. We would invalidate this scenario and consider a bullish outlook if we surpass the $90 mark in Crude Oil Futures. Should the price fall from here, we would then expect a five-wave structure downwards. However, caution is advised with oil due to the significant political and geopolitical influences on its price. The upcoming elections at the end of the year are particularly noteworthy, as a lower gasoline price in America is hugely important for electoral success, ensuring wins. With rising oil prices and the depletion of reserves, with hardly any reserves left in America, it will likely be necessary to purchase a large amount of oil. Considering the current economic stance of America, this task appears challenging. There is only one option if the goal is to lower oil prices for repurchasing. Even a $20 difference is substantial when buying as much oil as a country the size of America needs. Therefore, we still expect prices to fall further before we see a reversal.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by freeguy_by_wmc
NVIDIA (NVDA): Wave 1 Nearly Complete – New Entry Opportunity?After a break, we’re taking another look at NVIDIA, which is now around $100 — which sounds like a much more attractive level compared to $1100. But it isn't, as in the meantime we witnessed a stock split. We still see more upside for NVIDIA as we believe we are in Wave (5) of the current cycle, if our count is correct. Zooming in, the past surge doesn't need much commentary as it was mostly upward movement without significant corrections. Now, it looks like we’re getting into the intra-wave structure. We expect Wave 1 to finish after one last leg up to complete the five-wave cycle for Wave 1. Afterward, we could look for entry points at the end of Wave 2. If this scenario plays out with the bearish divergence on the RSI, we will update you on how we plan to position ourselves.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Gold (XAUUSD): New All-Time High - Double Top or Further Surge?Gold has reached a new all-time high, creating either a double top or peaking at a maximum of $2,487. The price turned within a very narrow range between $2,472 and $2,487, which was remarkably precise. The precise turnaround within the small range indicates significant resistance at this level. Our primary scenario anticipates a pullback towards $2,200 before the trend resumes upward. This level is crucial for confirming a long-term bullish trend. Alternatively, if the price does not pull back and instead rejects at the Point-of-Control, we may see a continued upward movement. Should the price break above $2,487, we will cancel our long limit order as the bearish pullback scenario would be invalidated.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Tesla (TSLA): Trend Reversal or Just a Blip?Today, we are analyzing Tesla on the daily chart. After surviving the stronger sell-off at the 78.6% retracement level and avoiding the stop loss, we have witnessed a bullish divergence, which led to a significant upward push. Starting from the end of Wave (1), Tesla left this wave with a breakout gap downward. This breakout gap has not been closed yet, and we continuously saw lower lows and lower highs, indicating a clear downtrend. Recently, the first higher high has formed, which is a strong indication of a trend reversal. We believe Tesla might trade back towards the breakout gap, potentially testing it briefly before moving upwards towards the Point of Control. Between the levels of $190 and $230, trading volume has been low, and we don't expect this to change significantly. Therefore, a quick rise to around $260 is possible. The key question now is whether the breakout gap will be tested. We maintain our view that Wave (2) concluded at approximately $139, and we should be on the way up. If the price falls below $139, a quick retrace to around $100 is likely.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
PAAL AI (PAAL): Potentially next x10 Low-Cap Gem identifiedOn the 4-hour chart for PAAL-AI (PAALAI), there is a noticeable 4H Order Block Cluster that has been touched twice, each time showing a strong reaction. However, the overall trend is weakening, which is apparent from the recent price action. Currently, there is a resistance zone between $0.50 and $0.60. This zone will likely be tested again in the future, and whether it can be flipped into support remains to be seen. The present trendline is holding, but several key points need to be watched closely. If the Order Block Cluster fails, the price could potentially fall towards the $0.20 and $0.13 levels, where the Point-of-Control is located. These levels would be attractive for longer-term entries, especially for a "moon bag" strategy, as they offer the potential for excellent returns in the next bull run. If the price dips again, the Order Block Cluster will be crucial to watch. Successfully defending this cluster could set the stage for another attempt to reach the recent high around $0.90.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Meta Platforms (META): Ready for a Correction?We initially set our maximum target at $510, and the price climbed to $531—a difference of only about 4%, which is quite close given the magnitude. We're satisfied with our analysis so far and want to stay within this timeframe. While it's possible that Waves 3 and 4 haven't fully played out yet, we need to consider that Wave 5 in Meta often tends to be longer. This historical pattern suggests that the current Wave 5 might have extended similarly. If Waves 5 and (1) are not yet complete, we would need to see the price rise significantly, surpassing $575. Such a move would indicate that the bullish cycle isn't finished, and we might see a further upward spike before a deeper correction. However, the RSI shows a bearish divergence: lower lows on the RSI while the price chart shows higher lows. This divergence is typically a bearish signal and shouldn't be ignored, as it often leads to price corrections. Even though we have closed the gap, we believe that a further decline is possible, potentially down to around $384 to complete Wave A. An ideal entry zone for us would be around $306, with a worst-case scenario down to $181. This analysis takes into account both historical price patterns and current indicators to inform our strategy moving forward. Keep in mind even though META seems to be a huge organisation we have seen some bigger pullbacks in the past.
NASDAQ:METALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Kraft Heinz Company (KHC): The Beginning of a Massive MovementSince its IPO in 2015, the Kraft Heinz Company chart reveals a clear downward trend. From a high of $97.77 in 2017, the stock has fallen to $19.99. This could be considered Wave (1). While the exact bottom is uncertain, we anticipate a further decline below the $19.99 mark over the coming years. After hitting $19.99, the stock formed a three-wave structure upwards, typical of a corrective wave. This suggests that Waves A and B have been completed, and we are now entering Wave C or Wave (2). This wave is expected to reach between 50% and 78.6% retracement levels, translating to a price range between $58.64 and $80.81. Currently, the stock is trading within a high-volume node between $25 and $41, with the Point-of-Control (POC) at approximately $35.50, indicating the highest traded volume at this price level. This POC can act as a pivot point, potentially leading to a breakout in either direction. Given the high-volume node and the potential completion of the corrective wave, we might soon see an upward breakout. However, monitoring these levels closely is crucial to anticipate the stock's next move. Examining the 4-hour chart of the Kraft Heinz Company, we can see a bullish structure emerging since Wave B, which was established at $30.68. This bullish trend is characterized by a five-wave structure leading to Wave (i), followed by a correction to Wave (ii). Currently, we are developing the sub-waves (1) and (2). The chart shows that we are still adhering to a wedge pattern. Recently, liquidations above Wave 1 have been collected, and support was perfectly respected at the end of last week. This support level is crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. Looking ahead, if this support holds, we expect Wave (iii) to potentially reach the $45 mark. This provides an opportunity to plan entries. However, caution is advised since entering bullish trades within a generally bearish trend can be risky. It's imperative that this support level holds. A drop below it would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario. Furthermore, we should not fall below the $30.68 level of Wave B. If this level is breached, we will need to reassess and re-evaluate the entire structure.
NASDAQ:KHCLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Shopify (SHOP): Preparing for a Long-Term Entry at $49.62Considering Shopify, the situation is unfolding as we anticipated. We expected the beginning of 2024 to potentially mark the peak for Shopify with the completion of Wave (1), indicating a Wave 2 correction. This correction is likely to find support between the 63.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. Currently, the pattern is showing lower lows and lower highs, suggesting that further price declines may occur, potentially closing existing gaps. Our strategy is still developing, but we plan to place a long-term entry at $49.62 with a stop-loss at $31.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Polkadot (DOT): Are we done yet?We had to reassess the situation with DOT on the daily chart and have concluded that we are still not seeing the completion of Wave (2). Why is this the case? Because the correction downward following what we assume to be Wave (2) is too brief in duration to be considered a Wave 2. However, the upward movement towards Wave B was surprisingly strong. Since we have now fallen below the level of Wave A, and we make no exceptions for Wave 2 as we might for a Wave 4, we believe this represents an overshooting Wave B, which respected the 161.8% level almost to the cent. We now expect a downward movement that should reach between the 78.6% and 100% levels. Upon closer inspection, we also assume that what we overshoot upward, we'll compensate for downward, a typical characteristic of an Expanded Flat. Therefore, the 78.6% to 100% range is seen as crucial and robust. The low of $3.56 must not be breached, which would be far from ideal. On the daily chart, we also note a Fair Value Gap above, which remains the only gap on this chart. Eventually, all such gaps get filled. The question remains: will we move towards $4.85 or $9.50 first? Upon closer examination on the 4-hour chart, we've observed a four-wave structure since Wave B. Currently, we are respecting the 38.2% to 50% zone for Wave ((iv)) and remain below it. The scenario we believe in indicates a potential drop to $4.85. The timing is uncertain, and we may see some sideways movement for a while before experiencing a sharper decline. We've reached the 2.618 Fibonacci time zone, indicating a perfect setup for Wave (2). We've missed this by a day, but still anticipate a further decline, remaining within this golden zone. Additional Fibonacci clusters lend further confirmation, therefore, we expect significant buying volume in the range of $4.85 to $3.56. This would be an intriguing entry point as we are at the end of Wave (2), predicting that the subsequent Wave (3) will surpass Wave (1). The peak of Wave B at $11.88 offers a solid target, potentially making this a very interesting long-term swing trade.
BINANCE:DOTUSD
by freeguy_by_wmc
Silver (XAGUSD): Surge Beyond $28 or Pullback?The entire precious metals sector, including Silver, is currently of great interest, not just gold. For silver, we currently assume that we are probably nearing the end of Wave (iii), which can reach a maximum of 28.51 dollars. We are currently within our target zone for the Wave 5s, so it will likely be challenging to break through and invalidate the 461.8% extension level. If that were to happen, we would need to make adjustments. Otherwise, we believe we might see another drop to between 38.2% and 61.8%, i.e., between 25.75 dollars and 24.30 dollars. We will not place a limit order just yet. We first want to see some sell-off in this market before placing a limit order, to avoid having to adjust it frequently if it gets invalidated. So, wait until we send out the limit order.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Chainlink (LINK): Oversold and Undervalued. Surge to $37+Finally, after a long wait, we got filled on Chainlink, and we entered at $12.93. This is our entry point. The entry is holding up quite well and solid so far. We still see strength in Chainlink and we do not believe that our large stop-loss will be triggered. Also, for the first time since May 2022, the RSI has fallen into the oversold area, which is another sign of how strongly Chainlink has been sold off. We are holding on to this and still expect an increase to at least $37.45, probably even to $47.45.
CRYPTO:LINKUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
NVIDIA (NVDA): Why $1,077 Could Be Just the Beginning!NVIDIA (NVDA): NASDAQ:NVDA In our last analysis of NVIDIA, we presented an alternative scenario. However, given NVIDIA's relentless momentum, we find ourselves needing to adjust this scenario once more. We are now inclined to believe that we are still within a subordinate Wave 3 of the overarching Wave (3), anticipating that the price must reach at least the $1,030 mark, particularly considering the subordinate Wave ((iii)) precisely hit the 461.8% level. Following a rapid sell-off to Wave (a), we've observed the formation of Wave (b) with a three-wave structure right at the 100% mark. This leads us to position an entry for Wave (c) or Wave ((iv)), as we theoretically should achieve the 100% mark here too, aligning with the minimum 23.6% level for a Wave 4 around the 100% mark, thus establishing our entry point. Moreover, the gap present, along with the underlying support zone, could be crucial. Hence, we're setting our stop-loss just below this zone. For the upward movement, we anticipate that the subordinate Wave ((v)) of Wave 3 could reach at least up to $1,077, fitting within our minimum target range for Wave 3 and aligning well with our expectations. Should the price drop below this level, other zones could potentially accommodate a Wave ((iv)), but such a scenario would not be as rule-compliant, making this current scenario more likely than others. Considering NVIDIA's recent performance, this setup presents a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for a short-term trade. R:R - 6.3 Risk: max. 1%
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by freeguy_by_wmc