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Interest Rate Hikes & Bank Collapse: How to Protect Your TradingThe Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates for the past 9 months, causing a ripple effect throughout the financial world. In recent week, we have seen 3 major banks collapse as a direct result of the interest rate hikes, which has caused trouble in the financial world as well. As a trader, it's essential to understand how these events can affect your trading decisions and how to navigate the current situation. The Impact of Interest Rate Hikes on the Financial World Interest rate hikes have a direct impact on the financial world, including the stock market, bond market, and the housing market. As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive, which can lead to a slowdown in economic growth. It can also lead to increased volatility in the stock market, as investors react to the news and make changes to their portfolios. The Collapse of Banks and the IT Sector The recent collapse of two banks has caused trouble in the stock market specially IT sector, as many IT companies & startups have provided services to these banks. The collapse of these banks has caused a ripple effect throughout the financial world, leading to concerns about the stability of the financial system. Navigating Trading During the Current Situation As a trader, it's important to stay informed about the current situation and how it can affect your trading decisions. Here are some tips for navigating trading during the current situation: Stay informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and developments related to the interest rate hikes and the banking collapse. This can help you make informed decisions about your trades. Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is always important in trading, but it's especially crucial during times of economic uncertainty. Consider spreading your investments across different sectors to minimize your risk. Monitor volatility: As interest rates continue to rise, volatility in the markets may increase. Keep an eye on market volatility and adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Be patient: It's important to be patient and avoid making impulsive trading decisions based on emotions. Take the time to analyze the market and make informed decisions based on your trading plan. Use stop-loss orders: Consider using stop-loss orders to minimize your risk and protect your investments. Stop-loss orders automatically trigger a sale when a stock falls to a certain price, which can prevent you from incurring significant losses. Stay disciplined: It's important to stay disciplined and stick to your trading plan, even during times of economic uncertainty. Avoid making impulsive decisions based on emotions, and focus on your long-term trading goals. Take advantage of opportunities: While economic turbulence can be challenging for traders, it can also create opportunities for profit. Keep an eye out for undervalued stocks or assets that may be poised for growth in the future, and consider taking advantage of these opportunities if they align with your trading goals and strategy. Avoid overtrading: During times of economic uncertainty, it's important to avoid overtrading and taking on too much risk. Stick to your trading plan and avoid making impulsive decisions based on emotions or short-term market movements. In conclusion, the current situation of interest rate hikes and banking collapse can have a significant impact on the financial world and your trading decisions. By staying informed, diversifying your portfolio, monitoring volatility, and being patient, you can navigate this challenging environment and make informed trading decisions. Remember to always prioritize risk management and stay focused on your long-term trading goals.
SP:SPXEducation
by AfnanTAjuddin
1929 styled Bank Run Starting Tomorrow !!!SIVB SVB Financial Group Buyout or Bail Out, the only options! SVB was the second-largest banking failure in the history of the United States! Only 2.7% of Silicon Valley Bank deposits are less than $250,000. Meaning, 97.3% aren't FDIC insured, resulting in over $160 billion of uninsured customer deposits. Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB, potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors. SVB did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies. With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits. SVB held $91 billion in bond portfolio, classified as “held-to-maturity” securities, with an yield of 1.78! SVB CEO Greg Becker explained that the bank was selling its available-for-sale bond portfolio for $21 billion due to anticipated sustained higher interest rates, challenging conditions in both public and private markets, and elevated cash burn levels from its clients. This move resulted in a total loss of $1.8 billion for the bank. I think we are going to see a government take over of SIVB SVB Financial Group on Monday. In case they don’t do that, a 1929 styled bank run starting tomorrow! So i don’t think they have a choice other than bail out SVB Financial. In case of a Takeover, the buyout area should be $12.75 - $32. This is my Price Target for SIVB. 2020 Covid Lockdown level was $128 so the stock is Still expensive right now! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
What impact will there be after bankruptcy for SVB? The main reason for SVB's problem this time is liquidity. The banking industry is different from other industries, where the importance of liquidity is far greater than profitability. In the past few decades, there have been too many banks that have experienced extreme risks due to liquidity issues, and SVB has fallen into the same trap. The management was aware of the bankruptcy, as the CEO cashed out $3.6 million in stocks two weeks before disclosing the losses. The exaggeration was that a few hours before the announcement of bankruptcy, the company still distributed bonuses for 2022 to its employees. It is a stark contrast between those who received the bonus and thinking about how to spend it, and those who cannot withdraw their deposits and are worried about the situation. The market is concerned about the possibility of systemic risk and a Lehman-like crisis. As discussed earlier, based on the data, the liquidity risk of large banks is manageable, and the Federal Reserve is providing a backstop. However, there are around 5,000 banks in the United States, and more than just SVB may face liquidity risks in a high-interest rate environment. (Based on the data, there is a significant amount of unrealized losses for the four largest banks in the United States. The risk depends on the ratio of "hold-to-maturity investments/total liabilities." The ratios for the four banks are 22%, 12%, 12%, and 17%, while SVB's ratio is as high as 47%. Overall, the risk appears manageable.) The bankruptcy of SVB has the deepest impact on technology companies, as Silicon Valley Bank was set up to provide financing to technology companies, so many technology companies also keep their cash in SVB. Many companies have already disclosed the amount of their deposits in SVB over the weekend, and the impact on the technology industry is indeed significant. In theory, the money in SVB is safe because the asset problem is not significant, but due to the mismatch of terms, it takes six months or even a year to pay, which is a huge pressure for some technology startups. Those who have started a business know that every day they wake up, they have to pay rent and salaries, and liquidity is the core support for company operations. Hedge funds in the United States have already begun to look for opportunities to enter this time-limited money-making opportunity. Today, a hedge fund proposed to buy the startup company's deposits in SVB at a price as low as 60% of face value. It is indeed taking advantage of the situation to buy at this price, and if the asset confirmation is no problem, the portion due in a year, which is a 5% discount rate, is highly likely to be recovered by more than 90%. The bankruptcy of SVB has had a significant impact on financial assets, and the US stock market has fallen for two consecutive days mostly because of this. The US bond yield has also fallen for two consecutive days, and the flight to safety sentiment is beginning to spread. In the final analysis, the reason for SVB's bankruptcy this time is the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hike. Many contradictions will be highlighted in a high-interest-rate environment. The United States may still be relatively stable, and the greatest volatility may be in Europe and emerging markets. The follow-up is to pay attention to whether there will be further impacts and the Federal Reserve's further actions. The Federal Reserve has confirmed that it will hold an emergency closed meeting of the Federal Reserve System Board of Directors at 11:30 am local time on Monday, and we await the outcome of the meeting. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
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by EagleEyeStrategy