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SVXY

UVXY the VIXX following ETF ShortUVXY the fear and volatility ETF ran up nearly 10% on the past trading day before retracing a bit all due to the quick about-face in the market at about 1PM New York time. It moved from the lows at the opening bell and let up with after hours profit taking. The relative volatility indicator shows the volatility pump and then dump. The dual signal RSI indicator shows the low time frame in blue dropping faster than the higher time frame in black. I see this as a good setup for a short trade that could yield half of the run-up over the next two trading days or 5% by next Tuesday, August 1. The stop loss set at the top wicking at 17.25 while the target the pivot low from which price began at 15.55. I have contemplated a put option on this but have not yet reviewed the options chain. Price action down may begin slow until price crosses under the POC line of the volume profile and then accelerate as price drops below the high volume area into relative volume voids.
AMEX:UVXYShort
by AwesomeAvani
14
SVXY short VIX model green arrow Sell red arrow BuyThe chart posted is that of SVXY the SHORT VIX as you can see we have been a rather clear channel at each of the red arrows we had high VIX and they also match up with high put buying each was a LOW .The Green arrows we had Low Vix at each we had high call buying each was TOP or high . But you see the double arrows both green and red they were at every high extremes were we saw move of over 400 to 700 sp 500 moves . . best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:SVXY
by wavetimer
2
SVXY rises on returning greed or trader confidence LONGSVXY runs inverse to UVXY- it was trending up for weeks but fell off the cliff with the VIXX spike on the fed news of the debt rating downgraded ( like the US posting an earnings miss) a 7% adjustment in almost no time. The analysis now is the red candlestick pattern is that of inside bars, a Doji then a green bar and a red. The zero-lag MACD has had a line cross under the histogram showing bullish divergence coming into that indicator. Price has come to rest for support on the one standard deviation line below the mean VWAP. From this analysis I will take a long trade targeting the POC line of the volume profile 87.5 as the final target for 66% of the trade after taking 33% off at the mean anchored vwap at 85.85 The stop loss today's pivot low of 82.85. This offers a very favorable risk to reward as trader positive sentiment recovers.
AMEX:SVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
SVXY a volatility ETF play LONGSVXY is the ETF shorting the VIXX ( and UVXY) which pumped hard this past trading session. It goes up when volatility goes down and vice-vera. VIXX is expected to drop after the trama in the market starting at 1PM when the Treasuries auctions were duds with little transactions occurring and the financial data reported in the late morning. SVXY dropped to its near term lows as the VIXX too off. SVXY bounced above the long term anchored mean black VWAP line which provides a logical stop loss at 85.65. The relative trend indicator shows the dip and early recovery while the RS indicator shows low and high time frame lines bottoming and reversing with the low blue line above the higher black time frame line. I see this as a long trade setup targeting the pivot highs in the near left of the price trend or about 90.5, A similar trade would be to short UVXY in a trend down.
AMEX:SVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet. Instead, you want a correction. A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold. The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts. And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5. And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation. However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice. Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party. There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX. 1. VIX will not print GFC highs 2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs 3. VIX will not print 50-handles Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle. One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money. A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS. So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly. The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot. LT short seller funds: they dead. But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value. UVIX trades under $1 pre-split. You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity. Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat. It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split. You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation. What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions. People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down. So why not hedge with volatility? That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA? Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late. What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future. For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
TVC:VIXLong
by LordWrymouth
4
UVXY Volatility Index ETFUVXY as shown in the 15 minute chart is slightly above the basis line on the Bollinger Bands as shown also on the BB indicator or Luxalgo. Price is slightly below the mean VWAP of the anchored VWAP situated in the fair value area as also confirmed by the volume profile and its POC line confluent with the VWAP bands. Given impending federal data reports and news, I expect volatility will rise. UVXY could have positive price action in the range of 10% in tomorrow's trading day which can be day traded or scalped.
AMEX:UVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
VIX - Miss Mess left for Dead / Call Prems are quite Large The VX Complex comes under duress during Wall Streets Summer Fun Run. Buying is an unprofitable game. UVXY / VXX / SVXY is an assured loss. When UVXY was trading over 11, I warned one trader off the Calls prior to the plunge, suggesting it would trade to 9.09 and likely knife right through it. Tis the season for the Crims to run the table - even collaring the Markets bleeds it out. Buying into Roll from AUG to SEP (M1 to M2) is a loser 86.3% of the time on Any and ALL Rolls, it's quite simple. Don't buy ahead of Settlement on the third Tuesday @ 4 PM EST of every Month unless the VIX is in an uptrend. Even then - it's a lower probability as IF there is Roll Yield the Continuous Contract will need to close the Gap left below... it is basic VIX 101 Trading. We can see that the Roll Yield is significant @ 240 Bips you are giving away on the VIG. Why in the f_ck would you do that? The sane thing to do is this - Look out the Curve on the Term Structure and begin buying out the Curve then moving inward as Contango begins to move into far lower PREM. In SUM you are gambling on 13.3% odds in your favor... Unimpressive at best. It gets worse, the structured POS Products - SVXY UVXY VXX - get train wrecked by the Contango as 100% of SEP is 96% of the VXX on Wednesday... and it is bled out to OCT every day at a little less than 4%... with a Gap Below.... which normally fills this time of year. Here's the exclamation point: Trust VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) - 13.44 -0.17 / Another total POS ETF where traders are subjective to Theft. It IS SOH Time. Here is VX Term Structure and Curve - you may follow it yourselves @ VixCentral.com __________________________________________________________________________ % Contango: M1 11.35% - AUG M2 7.01% - SEP M3 3.61% - OCT M4 0.92% - NOV M5 4.36% - DEC M6 0.44% - JAN M7 0.11% - FEB ___________________________________________________________________________ Wall Street and Money Center Banks know the Equity Rally SLOMO/MOMO and now FOMO off June 16th Lows is a complete fraud. We see this in the Curves Optionally for the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) @ 19.53 -0.67 (-3.32%) Now, pay close attention to what those in know... know. ___________________________________________________________________________ 12/21/2022 VIX Calls - 131 Days to expiration on 2022-12-21 20 @ 7.10 21 @ 6.40 22 @ 6.00 23 @ 5.50 24 @ 5.10 25 @ 4.70 26 @ 4.35 27 @ 4.00 28 @ 3.80 29 @ 3.50 You are buying a $20 VIX Call for $27.00... if yer dumb enough to do so. No, you are not, you buy the Micro VIX VXM out the curve spreading your Risk on TIME. No need to pay a Wall Street Goon huge cheddar for VX participation, ever. Never, ever do this... cuz UVXY SVXY VXX do. Let the ETFs bag hold toxic spreads. YOU DO NOT. This is precisely why these ETFs spend 86% of their lives in a downtrend reverse split after reverse Split. Had you bought 1 Share of UVXY Reverse Split adjusted when it began trading... you would have paid $1,000,000. It is the same with SOXS SDOW and all the rest of these underperforming and Very Toxic Inverse ETFs. The Markets can trade sideways for weeks... they will continue lower due to their Derivative components. VTS - Brent Osachoff on YouTube has a great deal of educational videos to bring you up to speed, feel free to ask questions here after you've done yourself the EDU - is vital to your success. Knowing when to strike and when to do absolutely nothing. I hate to see people robbed by the House who has it entirely rigged against you.
TVC:VIX
by HK_L61
15
VIX ETPs, The Ticking Time Bomb That Could Unleash VolatilityThese fairly new ETPs, such as UVXY, VXX, SVXY, etc. will likely lead to volatility buying in which we've never seen before. People will be using these ETFs to hedge the risk of a larger stock market correction happening, leading to a continuation of the exponential increase in volume that these products have seen since their inception. This exponential increase in volume will lead to these ETFs holding the majority of VIX short-term futures. When these funds are forced to rebalance blindly to follow their prospectus, it will lead to them placing orders at settlement for a number of VIX contracts that may be higher than the daily volume of contracts traded that day. This will lead to massive slippage in the futures market, causing incredible price swings in both directions. Because these ETPs are forced to buy when price of VIX futures goes up, and sell when the price of VIX futures goes down, to maintain a balanced portfolio of 2x, 1x, or -1x respectively. It will lead to a positive AND negative feedback loop as these funds buy or sell futures based on their NAV readjusting and push the price of futures up or down because of lack of liquidity, which makes their NAV readjust higher or lower, which forces the funds to buy or sell more futures, which pushes the price of futures up or down, which pushes their NAV up or down, which forces the funds to buy or sell more futures etc. Once the liquidity risk of the long volatility ETPs becomes extremely significant, like we have just recently saw with the short volatility products (XIV, SVXY, etc.), then the liquidity in the futures market will not be able to support these products and it will cause massive and insane slippage like we've never seen before. These products did not exist during the last recession, and nobody is really sure how they will act in a real recession like 2008, especially now that their volume is exponentially higher than it was at inception, and could likely continue that trend of increasing for quite sometime, especially if a larger stock market correction occurs, and more investors look to these long volatility products to hedge their risk or make a profit while almost everything else is red. Many are claiming that because some of these ETPs had been shorting volatility on this run up, they had been helping to suppress volatility, which helped to boost the stock market. Now many are quick to blame these products for being the "cause" of the crash this week by increasing volatility. I think that the real truth here is that they did help suppress volatility on the way up, because they sell volatility when volatility goes down, and we've had the lowest volatility in the US since 1964, and as volatility increases, whether it happens now or in the future, these ETPs will help volatility to be unleashed like we've never seen before, because they will buying volatility en masse as volatility increases. These ETPs are not the only cause of volatility, but they will likely be a major factor in helping to create more massive price swings in the VIX than we've ever seen before, which will either unleash or suppress volatility, depending on which way the trend is going. The most important part is that the long volatility ETPs such as UVXY and VXX, could experience an "acceleration event" like XIV did, but because they are long VIX instead of short, like XIV, this could lead to a massive increase in the NAV of these Long VIX ETPs, potentially overnight, as these Long VIX ETPs become larger and the liquidity risk in the VIX futures market becomes far more significant. While it's not quite clear that these ETPs have reached critical mass, they will likely continue to increase in volume very quickly, particularly if this stock market correction becomes larger and more investors look to VIX ETPs as a way to hedge their risk or make a quick profit. This means there is a ticking time bomb in the volatility market waiting to explode.
AMEX:UVXYLong
by Intuit
8
Hang Seng Bear Market, Dollar Break Out, Vix Up, Welcome to OpexGood morning, folks, and happy Friday! Welcome to Opex; let's get right into our analysis. It was another shakey overnight session with Asian stocks leading global futures lower after China said it would pass a strict privacy law by Nov 1st, directly affecting tech and ecommerce companies and their collection and use of certain types of data from their customers. The Hang Seng is now officially in a bear market (>20% drop from the ATH). As of 8:15AM the Dow is down -0.52% to 34,711, the S&P is down -0.40% to 4,388, the Nasdaq is down -0.14% to 14,913, and the Russell is down -0.55% to 2,117. The Vix is sitting at 22.93 after rallying earlier this morning around 3:00AM toward 23.90. We've just retested the descending trendline once again, and we saw a light rejection. We have solid momo in vol this week, and today's Opex could really escalate the risk off move we've been seeing across global markets. I'm expecting another leg higher in Vix as early as next week, so my plan is to prepare for some potentially ugly month end selling, then reassess our short to medium term outlook. The US10Y yield continues to sink as investors flood into USTs in search of a safe haven. We're sitting on top the 50MA (w) at 1.23% and although we appear to have found support here, this is the 3rd test of support, and if it goes, it could trigger aggressive bond buying/risk off behaviour. The Dollar (DXY) is in the process of breaking out into the wedge. We're up again this morning and we just saw a new HOD at 93.708. If we end the week at the high's, let's say a 94 handle, this could set us up for a massive breakout toward the 95/96 area as early as next week. Let's see how the cookie crumbles on this beautiful Friday. Good luck out there today, my friends, and see you all at 9:30AM for our live analysis and weekly wrap up. Cheers! Michael. * I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
Fed Sparks Global Market Meltdown, Vixplosion Next?Good morning, folks! Well, well, well, the Fed decides to taper this year, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose in global markets. If you're thinking this entire "recovery" was just one big magic trick of coordinated monetary debasement, you're absolutely right, and the market's reaction to the Fed minutes yesterday (and today) is a perfect demonstration of the farce. It was an ugly overnight session across global markets, and as of 8:40AM, the Dow is down -0.91% to 34,645, the S&P is down -0.77% to 4,366, the Nasdaq is down -0.60% to 14,769, and the Russell is getting monkey hammered, we're down -1.65% to 2,128 (after losing long term ascending trendline support yesterday). Vix is up a whopping 52% this week and sitting at a 23 handle. We're in the process of testing the descending trendline from the March 2020 high around 85. If this resistance crumbles, imo Vix is going to a 40 handle, and possibly a 50 handle by EOM. Don't forget, we have Jackson Hole at the end of August as well, and if the sentiment at the event is negative after the Fed's hawkish minutes, Vix could have a multi-week breakout, sending it back toward last year's high's. We all know valuations are at nose bleed levels, and speculation is at ATH's. The Fed was the only thing standing in the way of a return of price discovery/fundamentals, and now they've folded their hand to inflation. You know what comes next. The dollar is scorching higher this morning - we actually tested the lower band of the wedge around 93.50 moments ago, before cooling back to 93.37. If we see a notable shift in the US Equity Put/Call, we're likely going to see a dollar breakout to our previous target around 95. This would imply a major correction across the asset classes. Simultaneously, USTs are being bid here which is sending rates tumbling also. The last time we saw a divergence this large against the S&P was in February 2020, just before the market crashed. In other words, the bond market clearly knows something stocks don't, and bond investors have been positioning for a crash since the US10Y yield peaked in March 2021. In Crypto, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) slipped back to a 43k handle before recovering some of the losses. We're sitting at 44,486 and looking brittle. Having said that we have the 21EMA just below us at 43,359, as well as the 21EMA (w) around 40,867. These supports are likely to hold in the interim, but if we do get a multi-week repricing of risk, it's highly probable we see a revisit of the July low around a 29k handle by next week. Ether (ETHUSD) also appears to be losing steam here and rolling over aggressively on the weekly timeframe. A retest of the 21EMA (w) around 2,418 would be my base case in a prolonged risk off scenario. Finally, on the data front, we saw initial claims come in this morning at 348k vs the 370k expected, while continuing claims slipped to 2.82MM vs the prior print of 2.899MM. This is actually not good for markets because the hotter the economy gets, the more the Fed will step off the gas. For a change, good news is bad news. The Philadelphia Fed index also came in moments go which shows an ugly divergence between the analysts expectations and reality. We're looking at 19.4 vs the 24 expected. Clearly regional manufacturing/business growth is slowing rapidly, hinting at stagflation dead ahead. Trade accordingly... Thanks for your time today guys and enjoy the rest of your day, it should be a very exciting day of trade! Cheers, Michael. * I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
10
Futures Sink as ADP Pukes, Data in FocusGood morning, folks! As of 8:45AM on Wednesday morning, US Futures are seeing some light weakness with the Dow down -0.33% to 35,003, the S%P down -0.27% to 4,411, the Nasdaq down -0.10% to 15,046, the the Russell down -0.82% to 2,202.80. The ADP Employment Change came in moments ago at 330k vs the 650k expected, and the weak print has erased some of the overnight gains, but we're still holding on to most of yesterday's gains, so nothing to write home about. The dollar (DXY) is holding steady just under a 92 handle (91.91), while the US10Y yield is also seeing persistent pressure as we continue to see heavy bond inflows. The Treasury has announced that they will begin reducing the size of bond auctions at the Nov 2021 meeting. That's going to make it tough for the Biden Administration to maintain current spending levels, and so with a reduction in Treasury supply ahead, monetary conditions are going to tighten as early as November, maybe even earlier if the Fed decides to taper purchases/hike rates at Jackson Hole. Clearly the bond market knows something the stock market doesn't, and if the crashing US10Y yield is mimicking last years drop, we're likely about to see a major correction in markets. Having said that, we still have room to the upside in stocks (based on the technicals), particularly considering we're holding on to key supports like it's a religion, and money is still free. Every dip is being bought without hesitation, and that really hasn't changed (yet). Yesterday was a perfect example of how easy it is for the bulls to achieve new ATH's. Gold is seeing some solid flows here as Powell continues to punish the Ctrl + P buttons on his keyboard. But, while Gold rallies, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing persistent pressure at 40k and has been unable to breakout since we lost this level in May 2021. Bitcoin and Gold do not trade in tandem - Gold trades as a safe haven along with the JPY, Dollar, Treasuries, to name a few, while Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. When markets correct and money flows out of risk, crypto gets hit the hardest as it carries the most risk/highest beta across most asset classes. Let's see how the day shapes up as more data rolls in. At 9:45AM we'll see the IHS Markit Services PMI for July, then at 10:00AM we'll get the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and then finally at 10:30AM we'll see the latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories for last week. Good luck out there today, my friends, and see you all at the opening bell for our Live Analysis. Cheers, Michael. * I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
For Your Eyes OnlyAs the majors drift sideways on Wednesday afternoon, after a bullish morning, Vix is at the LOD (18.16). When you look at Vix from the weekly timeframe, the trend is quite pronounced, and we're at solid multi-year support. It looks like things are going to get very wild, very soon, and from a macro perspective that makes perfect sense. I'm well positioned for anything that comes. As some of you know, my wife and I sold our condo in Toronto a few years ago in anticipation of a market top. We've cut our monthly expenses in half in the past year, and we're essentially debt free. One thing I refuse to be in the second half of my life, is a slave to the government or banking sector. I'm preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best, I guess that's all we can really do at this stage...
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
10