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Vix Weekly RSI Lowest in Almost 8 Years?The Vix recently caught a bounce off one of the lowest weekly RSI prints since 2013. We've seen support each time the Vix hit a weekly RSI of 41, and so Vix may finally be on the verge of a notable spike soon, which leads me to believe that the Fed may surprise markets today by being more hawkish than expected, or opex (quad-witch) on Friday may be a disaster for risk. Either way, I think the worse could be over for Vix, at least for a brief period of time. Let's see what happens this afternoon when we get the Fed minutes...
TVC:VIX
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
Vix Could be Hinting at a Replay of 2010Let's take a look at the Vix with a Heikin Ashi candlestick, and on a log scale. Notice the RSI on the monthly timeframe is 43, after hitting a similar RSI high in March 2020 (80) to that of Nov 2008, when the RSI was around 80 as well. The post November crash RSI low in the Great Recession crash was around 40, and we're at 43 now on the bounce. In 2010, abruptly following the 40 RSI test, we saw the RSI rise back toward 55, taking the Vix from a low of 15.20 to a 48 handle in a matter of weeks. Here we are, after the Major crash of 2020, and Vix is back at a 16 handle, with an RSI of 43. What might happen next if we see a notable correction, is an overcorrection, which could easily take Vix back to 48 based on previous market behaviour and sentiment, post crash. I don't see Vix having more than a 1 point downside at this stage, so I may consider increasing my position yet again, in anticipation of a large spike back to the 40's as early as this month. Thoughts and ideas welcome.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
19
Stocks Rally on Positive Data, as Money Now Grows on TreesWe're seeing a massive landslide of wins across the economic data spectrum this morning, with Retail Sales coming in hot at 9.8% vs the 5.3% expected, Retail Sales ex-auto coming in at 8.4% vs the 4.9% expected, jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since before the pandemic at 576k vs the 695k expected, and finally continuing claims came in at 3.73MM vs the 3.72MM expected. We'll see Industrial Production at 9:15AM, as well as Capacity Utilization. Isn't it interesting how quickly those stimmy checks made it to families, and then went straight out the door? So, no what? We're gonna need another stimmy cheque asap! After some light weakness to end the trading day on Wednesday, followed by some further weakness in the overnight session, futures are skyrocketing higher on the positive data prints. As of 9AM, the S&P was trading up around 0.65% to 4,141.75, the Dow up 0.50% to 33,784, the Russell up 0.80% to 2,262.70, and the Nasdaq up 1% to 13,940.25. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, and Palladium, were all higher on the day, as the dollar burns to the ground on perpetual easy monetary policy, and "free money" fiscal policy. The Vix is back near the post March crash lows, and is trading around 16.8 as of 9AM. We're seeing the most vicious decay in risk protection I've ever seen in my career. Risk is a bad word, and has seemingly been cancelled by Wall Street. Let's see how this progresses as Main Street lines up again with their hand out, for another round of stimmy cheques. According to Goldman Sachs, “We are probably entering the last stage of the pricing of the growth acceleration, and we see encouraging signs suggesting the ‘reflationary’ environment can continue and be supportive for risky assets in the near term." This comes after Goldman, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo posted stellar quarterly results. Wall Street is just loving this bail out. They're simply never held accountable for their actions and their systematiclly threatening and reckless derivatives behaviour. European stocks were mixed this morning with the Dax up half a percent to 15,264, the CAC40 down 0.64% to 6,170, and the FTSE up 0.69% to 6,941. In Asia, the Nekkei 225 was up 0.36% to 29,718, while the Hang Seng was down by 0.30%, and the CSI was up by 0.78% to 4,979.60. Considering we're sitting at the ATH's, it appears we're in for another day of sideways PA, with markets having no other option but to catch all that free money, and levitate yet again. Stay patient as the ponzi nears the end, and free money begins to put pressure on the Fed to hike rates sooner than "expected". Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HQD, QID.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
VIX compressionThe vix has a history of forming explosive price wedges. It wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination to say we're forming a new wedge here. Also, I suspect that we're on the verge of a new upward wave in volatility from here- it might just be a lower high in a new wedge. The market has gotten way ahead of itself and there are just too many new traders piling into popular stocks. They are fish in a barrel and the cork is about to get pulled. The sentiment is absurd and we now have some of the lowest put:call ratio's I've seen in my years of trading (shorts squeezed out). I'm hoping for the market to retrace 50% of the last fed rally but I would be thrilled to see lower lows by Nov-Dec. Take a look at the other chart below on VIX weekly timeframe and notice the very clear cycle lows/highs with the sine wave on stoch/rsi indicator.. We're very close!
TVC:VIX
by gghsusa
12
VIX; Bearish on the VIX?HEADLINE: Looking for short confirmation on the VIX TICKER: VIX SUMMARY: Waiting to see if the current support level for the VIX will fail and our strategy will confirm a short on the 4 hour. STRATEGY USED: Momentum Mover Trend Confirmation = Fractal Trend Entry Signal = Breakaway Scalper Exit Signal = Breakaway Scalper OR Orderblock Mapping --- DESCRIPTION: 1. The current trend on the VIX is still bullish according to Fractal Trend (background color Green). 2. Our Scalper went natural (no bar color) March 20th (White line) ending a long signal being given since Feb 21st. 3. The Breakaway Scalper then began having a short bias (red bar color), although this was clearly a good short, our strategy requires Fractal Trend and Breakaway Scalper to agree and thus we have not yet had a confirmed short signal on the 4 hour. 4. Currently we are finding support at the bullish order block at S1. 5. We are looking for S1 support to fail and for Fractal trend to confirm a short trend alongside Breakaway Scalper. 6. If S1 holds we will be looking for a confirmed long bias from Scalper instead and will be looking for a reaction at the bearish orderblock at R1. --- NOTE: We conduct market analysis on a daily basis from a trend trading perspective using our own in house built tools. If you like any of the content we provide please leave a like and a follow to show your appreciation.
TVC:VIX
by AlphaBotSystem
4
Long EXIVNow that VIX is in backwardation, it is a good time to bet on it. VIX reached one of its all time peaks a week ago and has been on a cliff dive since. EXIV tracks EURO STOXX 50® Volatility (VSTOXX®) at a -1 multiple. (www.stoxx.com) Although it is not directly the VIX, VSTOXX closely mirrors the VIX. As it is turbulent times, I think EXIV can reach at least the $15 level before bad news comes up skyrocketing the VIX again, in which case switch over to TVIX. We see a crossover on the 2 hour chart, but not yet on the 4 hour. I believe Trump and the government will pair Thursday's terrible unemployment numbers with the passing of the stimulus bill to mitigate the negative effects of the unemployment figures. What do you think? Will the bad of the unemployment figures outweigh the good of the stimulus bill passing?
ELong
by choiinho10
3
VIXY - Get In or Get Left OutVIXY and VIX derivatives are ready to spike. RSI, MACD, Fisher Transform, and Filter Dots all show reversal coming in next 5 business days. There are 4 gaps to fill, indicating a possible 44% positive correction to around $20 for VIXY. The reversal period is short here. I believe it may last until Christmas. Going to green curved line (Gaussian Channel midline) would be normal given the chart history. November 26th or sooner, I feel we will exit the current pattern up. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
VIXY - Reversal Area - Bannana/Shoe PatternI have heard this pattern be called a "shoe" or a "bannana". Downward straight trendline with curved supporting line (more than 3 points of contact). Pattern repeats in VIXY chart as seen. Bullish reversal is short 7-10 days. We are currently in the bottom of the bannana, ready to breakout. RSI shows wedge pattern as well, indicating breakout in RSI. We are close to all time low RSI. I was able to use a bullish Put Credit Spread here for 5 contracts 12/20/2019 14/19 spread ($3.83 each) and take an upfront credit of $1925 for $575 risk. IV is over 60 for both put options in the spread. Theta works positively for us here and we should see VIXY spike during Christmas. This trade has over 70% probability of success based on the numbers. Please see the videos below and do your own research. For excellent free training on options (Options Industry Council) www.optionseducation.org How Theta works positively for us as sellers - www.youtube.com Bullish Put Credit Spread - www.youtube.com Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
SP500 My perspective -start to presentI did this once before last year but I thought it is good once again to repost how I see the market, since inception in the early 1900's to today. From my perspective, we are nearing the completion of a supercycle 5th wave. And as you can see from the chart (which trading view does not go back to the beginning...see a historical chart if you want), supercycle wave 1 peaked just before the start of the 1929 crash and the great depression. Since then we have essentially been in a bull market with the exception of the 2000's which clearly appears to resemble a wave 4 correction. As you can see, what has been occurring since February isn't even noticeable. Next we will zoom in a little more to the weekly. Although it appears cluttered...try to bear with me as I am not about to clean it up more just to satisfy your eyes. Every once in a while I try to take a look at what I had going on and see if anything that I have learned over the last year or so may have changed my perspective. And the answer is yes....slightly. SO I will explain. Moving right along. Take a look at the start of the supercycle 5th wave which began at the 2009 bottom. I believe this is a more accurate count. The blue wave 2 only has a little more than a .382% retracement. So that would mean that the 4th wave correction (for the blue count) Is going to be over .50% and likely reach the .618% retracement, whenever it tops. As you can see, I do not think we are there quite yet. I am thinking that may not happen until the middle of beginning or middle of 2020. When that does happen, as you can see, it will be severe. Why so severe. Because the higher we go, the more points the percentages equate to. So while the actual points drop may look similar to the 2008 - 2009 dump, the percentage is not as great. So while drawing/updating this chart, the time proportions and Fib price extentions appear to bring us into 2020. (The other reason is that I don't think the powers that be, who are behind the scenes in American and Global politics and world banking....Don't like Trump and they may trigger a market correction to try to knock him out of office. It would have to be scary and start several months before the 2020 election to scare people away from voting for him). But that's just a conspiracy theory. ;) also notice that you can barely make out the correction that started in February of this year. Kind of crazy isn't it. Next I would like to zoom in even more to where I think we are now. I put this sub wave 1 (orange) where I did because when I zoom in to the prior dip, it appears to me to only be wave 4 of 5. Either way, it does not really matter because the fib retracement for wave 2 is very shallow. Which means that the next correction is supposed to be deep (which we are experiencing now). And I do not think we are finished yet. I zoom in even more. As you can see, we haven't even broke the .50% retracement yet. If we stayed in the wedge, then we could break the .50% and that may be my first target. But I would not be surprised that we get a wick that drops into the .618% green box range. Then I think a great long position can be started. For this next part....maybe I am wrong and we have already completed our a,b,c correction and are already starting into the final wave c drop. But that would mean that the 4th wave last a day and that just seemed too short. The reversal in price at the end of the day was interesting and we will see what happens over the next couple days to help tell the story. and now the 5 minute. Good Luck
SP:SPX
by SalN
18