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Swan

Forecast is for rain (market top)Chart shows SPY (2D) and the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA(aqua) and 200DMA (yellow). Each series is the mean percentage of 7 index's which, in turn, aggregate several thousand underlying stocks. The 7 indexes: S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell, TSX, NYSE, AMEX The peaks of the index coincide with market tops (as shown in the chart). Based on this pattern it's reasonable to forecast a top. Like the weather forecast, the timing is uncertain, the underlying averages lag, and their are plenty of false positives**. Current forecast is for rain. ** Why do we listen to a weather forecast that we know is somewhat inaccurate? Because it's useful in answering questions like: "should i take an umbrella with me today?" ** All models (and indicators) are meant as useful approximations of reality.
AMEX:SPY
by gb50k
2
Black Swan - Tinfoil Hat PlayWith the synchronized outages of social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, & Twitter ... so far ... conspiracists have been saying for sometime to expect a national/global cyber attack that could create some sort of internet blackout. If this happens, I'd expect Bitcoin to crash to the predictive 1.5 fib that sits around 27.6k . Then the whales have filled up their bags giving the greenlight for a supercycle. I've deleveraged - I'm not expecting this to happen, but leverage isn't something I'd want to play around with when this social media outage could create a scare/flashcrash.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ungovernable
5
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment. There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point. Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.
GPW:FW20Z2020Short
by CashJohny
Black swan event. Indicies in freefall. Continuation in March?!Hello dear traders. Corona virus is hitting hard. Black swan event is in play. We might see the biggest shift of wealth in human history. Perhaps people will understand that our current financial system isn't the best and that it's time for a more stable and better form of currency. Bitcoin has not yet reached that point, but in a few years from now it will at least establish as -the- best peservation of wealth. Which by the way it actually is the best growing asset humanity has ever had. Now to my trade. I am short on DJ30 and DE30. Light blue doted line is my entry, which ofcourse is a bad entry. (We saw a really clear textbook jump of the 0.618 fib level - ofcourse it is institutional money taking out their gains of their shorts this week) Big red doted line is my stoploss. My entry on DE30 is @12076 I see DJ dropping till 21000 at least. We might get a pump next week since it's the start of the new month March. But this is the time for traders to act. Unfortunatly my entries are late, but I still think there is room to grow your portfolio. Until then. Health is more important than wealth.
UShort
by Juba1337
kbsf Long - Reverse Stock Split - First Black Swan 2017 KBS Fashon Group initiated a reverse stock split a few weeks ago trying to bring their share price back into an institutional accepted area. Hoping to see gains in the future price, current price touching a major .236 Fibonacci level and will need to climb above the current 6.60 mark to have a successful reverse stock split future. next week will be crucial to see the life or death situation of this stock. Should be interesting to watch...
KLong
by davistradingforex