Avanza Breakout: Analyzing the Uptrend and RetestLong-Term Trend Analysis
Since its IPO, Avanza has demonstrated a clear uptrend, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment over the long term.
Recent Price Action (Weekly Timeframe)
On the weekly timeframe, a triangle pattern emerged, which has recently broken out. The price then retraced, suggesting a potential retest of the previous resistance level, which could now act as support.
Retest and Key Levels
The recent retracement appears to be a successful retest of the previous triangle pattern's resistance. This successful retest often signals a continuation of the upward trend.
Examining further, we can see that the previous triangle pattern has now become a critical area for retests, followed by strong upward reactions. This supports the idea that the recent move down was indeed a successful retest.
Fibonacci Retracement Analysis
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, the stock's recent reversal aligns perfectly with the 0.618 level, reinforcing its significance as a key support level. This level is often considered a strong area of support in uptrends.
Outlook and Potential Patterns
After analyzing the chart for patterns and key levels, we can anticipate potential future movements. A key level has been identified, which the stock has respected multiple times. This level could play a crucial role in forming a reversal pattern.
Two scenarios could unfold:
Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: The stock could form an inverse head and shoulders pattern, using the key support level as its neckline.
Double Bottom Formation: Alternatively, a double bottom pattern could emerge at the key support level, signaling a strong reversal.
Trading Strategy
To capitalize on this setup:
Conservative Approach: Wait for a clear reversal pattern (like the inverse head and shoulders or double bottom) to form before entering a position. This approach minimizes risk by confirming the trend direction, set a stop loss top minimaze risk.
Aggressive Approach: If you believe the stock doesn't require a full reversal pattern, consider entering now. In this case, setting a stop loss just below the key support level is crucial to minimize potential losses.
Sweden
Nordnet: The question is Breakout or Fakeout? OMXSTO:SAVE 's Position: Breakout or Fakeout?
OMXSTO:SAVE is currently at a critical juncture, having recently broken out of its long-term bullish channel. The key question now is whether this move represents a genuine breakout with a successful retest or just a fakeout.
Monthly Chart Analysis
On the monthly chart, we observe that since its IPO in 2020, Nordnet has been in a strong bullish uptrend, defined by two key trend lines. Recently, however, the stock broke through the upper boundary of this bullish channel, raising questions about its next move.
Weekly Chart Analysis
The weekly chart shows that after breaking through the upper trendline, the stock made a downward move, testing this line as a new support level. This was followed by a strong upward reaction, suggesting a potential retest and continuation of the bullish trend. However, the possibility of a fakeout remains, which could see the stock reverse back down to the long-term support level.
Daily Chart: Key Levels
On the daily timeframe, several key levels have emerged where the stock has shown significant reactions in the past. These levels—197 SEK, 217 SEK, and 230 SEK—are crucial for determining the stock's future direction. Recently, the stock bounced upward after touching one of these key levels and is currently testing another.
Support Line Identification
We can also identify a rising support line that the stock has respected, providing additional context for potential future movements.
Outlook: What's Next?
I anticipate that Nordnet may form a reversal pattern, such as a double bottom or an inverse head and shoulders, with the 217 SEK level serving as the neckline. If this scenario plays out, the stock is likely to resume its upward journey along the rising support line.
Trading Strategy
For those looking to trade this setup, consider entering a position near the long-term upper resistance line, provided there are confirmations on lower timeframes (e.g., reversal patterns, volume spikes, or indicator signals) that indicate upward momentum. If you suspect this is just a fakeout, it might be wise to wait for a clearer setup. Regardless, be sure to set a stop loss to minimize potential losses.
Atlas Copco AB: Potential Entry Points in a Long-term UptrendOMXSTO:ATCO_A has demonstrated a long-term uptrend throughout its history, marked by two strong channels, with higher highs and higher lows.
Since the Ukraine-Russian market crash, OMXSTO:ATCO_A has experienced a 100% increase. Currently, the stock is at the resistance channel, which has resulted in a notable downward reaction:
During the strong uptrend, previous resistance levels, where the price peaked, turned into support levels when the stock experienced pullbacks. Now, as the stock returns to these crucial levels, they may serve as key support, potentially causing the stock to struggle to break below them or to rebound and rise further.
I anticipate that the stock will gradually break through each of these key levels, eventually approaching the lower trendline before launching into a significant bull run. This scenario presents a promising opportunity for a long position, but we need additional bullish confirmation at these levels before making a move.
Important levels: 150 SEK, 140 SEk, 120 SEK, 100 SEK
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 43 - USDSEK - (14th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing USDCOP, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
VOLVO BULLISH CONTINUATION Volvo Cars, based in Sweden, has announced a remarkable 21% increase in car sales for the month of July compared to the previous year. The company managed to sell 54,165 vehicles during this period, marking the 11th consecutive month of continuous year-over-year growth.
Taking a broader look at the year so far, Volvo has demonstrated impressive performance in 2023. In the initial seven months of the year, the company achieved a global car sales figure of 395,856 units. This substantial number reflects an impressive 18% growth when compared to the same timeframe in 2022. This growth can largely be attributed to the surging demand for their fully electric and plug-in hybrid models, which have captured the interest of consumers.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Energy development at the bottomHello trenders,
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Given the circumstances in EU the price will go up starting by this winter.
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Why the U.S. dollar is strengtheningYellow= Support or Resistance
Green= Positive trendlines
Blue= Strong and trend effecting S/R
The analysis concern USD bound to SEK, however its a great general directional indication to USD weighing against all other.
The Analysis is about the current positive trend. Due to its already developed for some time its not in its beginning, therefore its not an obvious buy, so im neutral and HOLD at the moment, passing the orange line would say SELL, enter short, EXIT LONG. Otherwise we are currently at green trendline bottom and if passing many yellow lines (current resistances) we aim next to rebounded up until upper green trendline resistance.
Like & Share if this was worth anything, only then ill hare more ideas.
Is the krona a new safe-haven currency?The Swedish krona is among the major currencies that are susceptible to the latest developments in East Europe alongside the Euro, and both have been a basis for market sentiment surrounding the conflict on markets and economies.
On March 7, as the third round of peace talks capped off without any breakthroughs and as energy prices surged to a 14-year high, the SEK fell to its lowest in nearly two years at almost 10 SEK per USD.
Dovish Riksbank
The Swedish central bank’s (Riksbank) recent dovish stance also weighs on the SEK. At its February monetary policy meeting, Riksbank kept interest rates at 0% and maintained the volume of its asset purchases unchanged. The decision dealt a further blow to the SEK, knocking its value by 2% shortly after the rate decision.
However, the pressure is growing on Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves to hike rates as the central bank acknowledged the rising inflation rate as a result of higher energy prices.
Central bank peer pressure
Still, the central bank does not expect energy prices to continue to rise this year, it said in its most recent policy report, adding that inflation will likely fall back.
The central bank now expects a tightening of its policy in the second half of 2024, earlier than its previous forecast issued in November, amid peer pressure as the Bank of England recently hiked rates again to back to pre-pandemic levels, while the US Federal Reserve penciled in rate hikes at each of its remaining policy meetings this year.
Riksbank expects to raise its repurchase rate — or the interest it charges to commercial banks for short-term borrowings — to 0.06% in the first quarter of 2024 and to 0.31% by the first quarter of 2025.
Weakening SEK
In its February policy report, Riksbank acknowledged that the SEK is losing its value from its November 2021 levels based on the krona index. The central bank attributed the weakening of the krona to the rising turbulence on the financial markets.
"Variations in the Swedish krona exchange rate usually coincide with changes in risk appetite on the financial markets. In the coming years, the krona exchange rate is expected to slowly strengthen,” the central bank said.
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, between 2013 and 2020, the SEK depreciated sharply due to lower interest rates and Riksbank’s quantitative easing. In an earlier report, the Riksbank said the depreciation of the SEK during the said seven-year period "is a puzzling phenomenon for an advanced economy” as the krona kept depreciating even when the interest differential stabilized.
Growing use as a reserve currency
Although Sweden’s economy is fairly smaller than its neighboring European countries including Germany, the UK, France and Italy, the Swedish krona has been classified as a safe haven currency for many foreign exchange watchers.
The IMF sees the SEK as the sixth non-traditional reserve currency globally next to the Australian and Canadian dollars, the Chinese renminbi, the Swiss franc, and the Korean won.
The SEK is becoming increasingly viable as a reserve currency as the US dollar’s dominance has been steadily declining over the past two decades as central banks turn to non-traditional currencies, according to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund.
The share of the US dollar in official reserve assets has decreased over the past two decades, which the IMF attributed to the increased share of non-traditional reserve currencies like the SEK, it said.
IS THIS THE HEALTHY UPTREAD?Weekly Time-frame
We are currently above Ichimoku Cloud but not yet confirmed. Still this is a Bullish Scenario. Bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bullish Awesome Oscillator (AO). Rejection Area of $45,806 & $48,008. Support is in $43,971.
1D Time-frame
Huge green volume candle right there in AO. Area of rejection is still in $45,350, $48,008, and max would be $49,965. RSI is not overbought yet means there are still room for the upside. EMA 144 and EMA 233 has become a Strong Resistance. We are yet to test this resistance which is weakening and becoming a flattening slope resistance. Support is found in $44,106 & $42,624.
4H Time-frame
alternative.me
There is no sign of eminent reversal of trend yet. Greed and Fear Index remains neutral 52 (yesterday 51).
We can expect more to the upside. Rejection Area $45,653, $45,806, & $48,008. Relative Strength Volatility Variable Bands (RSVVB) staying inside the Bullish Pumping Zone. We have formed Cup & Handle price target at $53,907. RSI is overbought but doesn't matter it is normal during a healthy up-trend.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Trading Idea - #BillerudKorsnasBillerudKorsnas specializes in the manufacture and marketing of packaging products and materials made from virgin fiber.
- very intact upward trend with corrections about 5% to 15%! Wait for a min. 5% correction to buy or re-buy!
- Fair price 145.00 SEK
- 180 SEK becomes a mid-term resistance level!
KIND_SDB Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY
This magical strategy works like a clock on almost any charts
Although I have to say it can’t predict pullbacks, so I do not suggest this strategy for leverage trading.
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Wait for uptrend confirmation and buy signal with USDCHFH4 time frame.
Structure: The price broke out of the triangle pattern and the 0.92000 resistance.
Waiting for the price to retest 0.92000 or have a larger retracement towards 0.91700 and confirm the uptrend then buy setups with USDCHF can be found.
The profit target is 0.92800 zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
PCELL at important inflection point. Possible reversal!PCELL is at a very critical inflection point. This area is where reversals happen so if this level holds, we could see a beautiful reversal towards the upside. Bullish cypher aswell with the beautiful double bottom confirming the low of the harmonic. Bullish divergence as well on the MACD histogram and the RSI. Really good entry right here! Good Luck traders!
CDON Retracement Near Completion Buy Opportunity
CDON listed back in Nov 2020 and from 96 SEK up to its ATH of 975 SEK in January 21
its bullish cycle came to a stop at the start of FEB 21 .
CDON has nearly completed its retracement/correction from its dizzy highs of 975 SEK down to
current levels of 430SEK but expecting 300SEK.
and will be presenting a speculative Buy Opportunity .
Price action is trading within this falling wedge, I have done a standard FIB Retracement Pull from the Hi to Lo
and Volume has clearly depleted during this continued move to the downside as presented .
I would like to see the PA go down to the .786 fib level but of course it does not have too .
We can also build support at the current level 0.618, in which case if you wanted to buy then you should wait for a candle
close outside of the resistance . Until then though i expect sideways then one leg down eventually .
Please be aware that this is a highly speculative opportunity for the reasons i have provided below .
DYOR and know your invalidation and always use a SL .
Like and Follow for continued Analysis
21st April
CDON Q1 EBITDA Loss Widens To SEK 9.0 Million
5th March
CDON's CEO Kristoffer Väliharju Temporarily Resigns As CEO
10th May
CDON CEO Kristoffer Väliharju Resigns
8 June (Reuters) - CDON AB CDONAB.ST :
* SUSTAINABILITY IN FOCUS AS CDON AND BRING SIGN A LOGISTICS AGREEMENT
* CDON AND BRING HAVE SIGNED A NEW LOGISTICS AGREEMENT FOR SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES,
WHICH ENTAILS AN INCREASED FOCUS ON SUSTAINABLE DELIVERIES.
MSFT long idea!I think that we might see a scenario like this the comming weak/weaks. Big tech is getting strength back and we are in a claer bull trend. My idea is too go long if we bounce of the trend line.
Do not see this as a buy or sell recommendation and always do your own analysis.
Im just shareing my thoughts
// Jakobssons