EURUSD Scalping-Day trading LONG1st Entry - 15min POI:
I decided to open three trades using the OTE reversal strategy within the 0.705 to 0.79 zone, taking advantage of the range between the swing high and swing low.
Entry timeframes:
1min
Emotions: Calm and confident
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.58
Lot size: 0.5
2nd Entry:
Entry Price: 1.0968
Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.53
Lot size: 0.8
Emotions: Calm and confident
3rd Entry:
Entry Price: 1.0967
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.45
Lot size: 0.3
Emotions: Calm, but I entered too quickly, as the price was nearly the same as my second entry. However, I'll close this trade earlier at the STR.
Swinghigh
EURCAD SHORT EURCAD Set-Up
Bearish Arguments:
Monthly PCH is being respected
Monthly Bearish FVG being respected
Monthly swing high has been swept
Weekly swing high is being respected
Daily Bearish FVG is being respected
Daily swing high is being respected
4H swing high is being respected
Bullish Arguments:
Weekly swing low is being disrespected
Daily swing low being respected so far
4H Bullish FVG being respected
4H swing high being respected
As observed, the bearish probability is around 70%, while bullish odds stand at 30%. For this reason, risk management is crucial.
Trade Management:
Stop-loss placed at the short-term high.
First TP set at SellStop. Once this level is reached, move the SL to break-even (BE) and hold until the final target is reached.
Risk-to-Reward (RR): 2.45
Risk: 2%
WTI Long High riskOil Trade Setup
FPMARKETS:WTI
I've decided to go long just before the news release, as I noticed the liquidity sweep had already occurred. However, I'm cautious about this trade, as the bullish probabilities are mixed, and there are stronger bearish arguments.
Trade Management:
Stop Loss: Placed just below the liquidity sweep, as breaking this level would suggest further downside.
Take Profit: Partial exits planned. First target at $72.38, with the remaining at the next level of buy-side liquidity.
Risk/Reward: 4.85
Risk: 1%
Bitcoin Long idea on it5 Bullish arguments for BTC:
- Bullish FVG weekly being respected
- Swing low being respected
- 3rd candle did not close above the 2nd candle high
- Pull back into the FVG
- Bullish FVG being respected so far
Trade Management: SL placed below the swing low, TP at the intermediate high.
Capital Risk: 1%
R/R: 2.43
ETH long momentum High risk
Possible Momentum in ETH – 6 Bullish Arguments:
1️⃣ Swing low is holding.
2️⃣ Liquidity sweep below the swing low.
3️⃣ Discount Array Weekly
4️⃣ Bearish FVG disrespected.
5️⃣ Wick from the previous day still respected today.
6️⃣ Bullish FVG 1H respected
Trade Management:
The key focus is on how the weekly candle closes, so my stop-loss is placed tightly below the previous candle’s low. Target profit is set at the intermediate term high (ITH).
Capital Risk: 2%
R/R: 5.74
BTC Short High riskI'm seeing that the price of bitcoin could explode at any time. However, I'm starting to notice weakness in the bounce so I've taken the opportunity to make a short entry as it hasn't broken strongly above the 4h FVG and only went up for liquidity.
Trade management: SL in the wick in case it resumes the upward bias better get out of the way. TP on the swing low.
Risking capital: 0.50%.
RR: 2.7
EURJPY LongMarket Idea for This Week 🔍
FX:EURJPY
After analyzing last week's sharp drop, I'm seeing a strong opportunity with the market's current reaction. The Asian range at the start of this week has created a significant bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on both the 4H and 1H timeframes. Although the 4H FVG carries more weight, I've opted to place my Stop Loss (SL) based on the 1H FVG for tighter risk management.
Trade Management Plan:
Target: Take profit (TP) as soon as the Order Block (OB) is reached on the 15min chart.
Risk Management: Move SL to break-even (BE) once first TP is hit.
WTI Crude Oil USOUSD LongIn my humble opinion, the worst seems to be over for oil.
Trading Idea: After analyzing multiple sessions, I noticed how well the price has absorbed the recent drop, reclaiming the liquidity distribution from last month. There’s no strong indication of further downside. The Asian session has brought it into a solid accumulation range. I’m looking for an entry within the lower zone, aligned with a 15-minute FVG.
Trade Management: Once the rally begins, I plan to take partial profits (40%) at yesterday’s NY session high, and let the remaining position run toward the swing high. I’m targeting a rally up to the $73 area, but will wait for additional high-probability confirmations as the rally unfolds.
Risk: 0.50%
R/R: 6.78
Nasdaq100 High risk LONGIdea in Progress: Noticing that during the Asian and London sessions, the price hasn’t made a new low, I see potential for an upward move. Given that the price is currently within a bullish 4H FVG, there’s a chance it could rise toward the bearish 4H FVG created yesterday before resuming its decline.
Trade Management: I'll take profit at the first swing high and then move my stop loss to break even.
Risk: 1%
Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.34
XAUUSD ShortAfter the great rally yesterday, I decided to open another short taking advantage of a bearish FVG in 5 min looking for the 4h FVG in the 2487$ area.
Risk: 1%.
RR: 3:92
Risk management: Today there is a lot of movement due to financial events like the CPI so we will have to take partial profits.
GBPUSD SHORTI'm currently participating in a trading competition, which is why I'm opening more trades than usual—these are not on my personal account. Typically, I only open one trade per day on my personal account, but only when my setup shows a high probability of confirmation.
Trade Management: I've decided to open a short position because the price has been creating Fair Value Gaps (FVG) consecutively on the 5-minute chart, and it seems likely that it will seek liquidity in the lower zones. Additionally, there's a 4-hour FVG, which increases the probability of the price continuing to drop. However, once it reaches the sell-stop, I plan to take partial profits (70%).
Risk: 1%
Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.84
XAUUSD ¿Can we confirm WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION?1️⃣ Demand Taking a Break: After hitting its ATH with a clear UPTHRUST, the market has paused.
2️⃣ Triple Test Failure: Three tests with no significant demand generated.
3️⃣ Price Exhaustion: With the price looking worn out, we could see a move towards the $2487 liquidity zone and potentially lower, offering the supply side a chance to find fair value.
Keep an eye on how this unfolds. ⚠️
Price Discount in USD/JPY - Trend ContinuationThe market is a discounting mechanism. When prices rise too high, buyers start taking profits, aiming to buy at lower prices during an uptrend. This behavior sustains the trend.
In USD/JPY, this concept is evident. The swing low at 160.26 attracted strong buyers, pushing the price above the previous high, creating a new higher high. At this peak, buyers no longer saw value and took profits, seeking a discount to buy at a lower price.
Fibonacci retracement is useful in trending markets, as its key ratios indicate potential levels of trader participation. Currently, the price has been discounted to the 76.4% retracement level of the rally. The corrective ABC pattern brought the price from the high to the current discount.
Based on this scenario, we expect more buyers at this higher low, pushing the price above the recent high. Using Fibonacci as a target tool, we anticipate the price reaching at least the 123.6% level of the current rally.
The risk in this trade is if the swing low of 160.26 is broken, buyers won't be profitable, so this level will be our stop loss. The risk/reward ratio for this trade is 7.05.
Always think in probabilities.