Swing Short Trade On BTCAfter the formation of a W patter with the following bullish breakout at 22139$, volumes are still imposing further bullish extension. In fact, the volume oscillator gives a negative 3.88%. Furthermore, the MACD line is getting closer to the signal line giving foundation for a possible bearish crossover, thus concluding the bullish momentum. For this reason we expect a correction at the new support at 22139$.
Swingshort
$UPST - Prime Short CandidateBased on overnight futures action, we may experience a gap down tomorrow.
The chart for $UPST looks awful with the stock losing many key levels of support. We're currently at our last level of support before huge downside.
If we break through 106.5, it's extremely likely we see 91 over the coming days. Will enter a short in the morning if my thesis plays out.
USDZAR Upcoming Swing ShortAnalysis done on the weekly timeframe. As you can see, USDZAR is in a clear downtrend. I expect price to come up closer to the trendline before ultimately heading down again. I have identified several key support and resistance levels from the weekly TF also.
This is just my analysis, i've never actually traded any exotic pairs. If anyone has any advice or tips for exotics, specifically UZ, i would appreciate it if you could comment them. Only reason i even ended up checking it out was because i read an article on Bloomberg about SA struggling with covid vaccines, so i figured this could be a good opportunity to swing.
I may take a short on a small lotsize once price comes up to an ideal entry.
EURCAD DAILY SWING SHORT - PENDING Daily directional bias is good, the wave is smooth, established and respected.
Single time frame DB and crude at resistance makes this a higher risk trade, would take a smaller entry.
Weekly has no wave directional bias
Monthly the trend has been up, however the wave is not smooth established or respected - I like a short with a target at the monthly uptrend line
EURNZD & EURAUD which also have valid set ups due to the crude driver which is currently keeping CAD stronger than AUD and NZD, need to exercise caution as this doesn't have multiple time frame DB like the other 2 pairs, also crude is at monthly resistance - this could give the entry on this pair but a rejection from support without a retest and break though would tank this set up. A pullback in crude could also validate set ups on EA and EN.
EUR weakness driver is the vaccine rollout not being as good as UK, Australia, US and Canada - a change in that could effect this trade
CAD driver is crude strength - a change in the current narrative to a risk off out look and weaker economic recovery could prevent it breaking resistance.
EURAUD DAILY SWING SHORT - PENDING Multiple time frame direction bias on Daily, weekly and monthly
I missed the initial entry on this position, it's already occurred, could get another entry
Monthly chart has confluence of Trend line and 200 simple moving average a close below both of these opens up further bearish momentum.
Euro would need to see a turn around in the narrative regarding their vaccine roll out for this trade to tank
USDCAD DAILY SWING SHORT - PENDING Direction bias on daily and weekly time frame, will be taking a regular size position on this trade when it triggers
Driver is CAD on crude strength, a correction in crude or some USD strength may trigger an entry on this pair
I have already had several profitable trades from 1.2700 level
EURGBP DAILY SWING SHORT - PENDING Bearish directional bias on daily only, make this a higher risk set up due to lack of multiple time frame directional bias, so this won't be full position size.
Weekly - fresh bearish DB
Monthly -Break and close below monthly trend line would signal more bearish momentum
Current driver is euro weakness on vaccination program in Europe falling short compared to UK, USA, Canada and Australia. Pound strength is being driven by the fast UK vaccine rollout.
Any change in the vaccine narrative for EUR could put this trade in trouble.
Potential short set up for JPMThis is a potential set up and not yet actionable unless you want to take an aggressive starting position. JPM has finally up to pre COVID price level. The run up recently has been too fast too sharp in my opinion. RSI is extreme over bought reading. Any marginal high will extend the PPO divergent high. Be careful trading this since the earning is coming up on this Friday before the bell. I can see rejection here or making a marginal new high and fade. That would be a bull trap and down move may be pretty swift. Down side target for me is the yellow trend line from COVID March low or the top of the gap at $112.55.
High probability swing short set up on CRSPHere is my short case on CRSP:
- at the top of trading channel started since Feb 2020
- over bought reading on RSI
- both PPO and RSI shows very clear divergence high
Starting building a position as it hits the top of the channel and scale in as it moves down. Impulsive break of the wedge should move it down to the support at $161. Reaction will be likely, consolidation or a minor bounce. Then, if it gets taken down, then moving down to the bottom of the channel which intersects with $145.80 horizontal support. If that breaks, it's going way lower since $110 and $131 area are pretty thin so the move will be probably pretty swift.