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Swingtrading

SPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis: S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)1. Weekly Chart: Uptrend Intact: The weekly chart shows that SPY continues to trade within a broader uptrend, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. It has held above its key moving averages, particularly the 50-week moving average (blue) around $515. MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram shows continued positive momentum. This suggests that bullish sentiment remains strong, with no significant reversal signals yet. Key Resistance: We are testing the $577 level, which appears to be a significant resistance zone. If broken, SPY could extend toward new all-time highs. 2. Daily Chart: Testing Resistance: The daily chart provides a clearer view of the immediate resistance at $577. We’ve seen several attempts to break through this level, but so far, the price has been contained below it. Moving Average Support: The 50-day moving average (green) has acted as strong support, currently around $555.80. As long as SPY holds above this, the bulls remain in control. Momentum Indicator: The MACD on the daily chart is trending positive, showing increasing bullish momentum. This signals that a breakout above $577 is likely if this momentum continues. 3. 4-Hour Chart: Bullish Momentum Building: The 4-hour chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating the bullish momentum is building. Price has been supported by the 50-period moving average at $564.10. Immediate Resistance: The key level remains $577. A clear break above this resistance level on strong volume could signal further upside, potentially pushing SPY toward the $580-$585 range. MACD Shows Caution: While the MACD remains in the green, it’s showing early signs of slowing momentum on this timeframe. This suggests that a brief consolidation or pullback might occur before a breakout. 4. 30-Minute Chart: Tight Range Formation: On the 30-minute chart, SPY is trading within a tightening range, with support around $572.21 and resistance at $577.11. Key Trendlines: We can observe two converging trendlines (green and red), which often precede a breakout. If SPY breaks above the red trendline (around $577), it could lead to a strong upward move. Conversely, a break below the green trendline would signal a potential retracement. Bullish Outlook: SPY remains in a strong uptrend across multiple timeframes, with positive momentum indicators and key moving averages providing solid support. The next critical level to watch is $577. A sustained break above this could see SPY move toward the $580-$585 range, continuing the bullish trend. Risk of Consolidation: However, there is a risk of short-term consolidation, especially on the lower timeframes, before any major breakout occurs. A drop below $564 on the 4-hour chart or $572 on the 30-minute chart could indicate a deeper pullback.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
1
How to Make Money in the Stock Market and Keep ItI have always said that making money in the stock market is easy. It is learning how not to lose money that is the hard part of trading. To that end, when you find yourself in the surprising and often disturbing position of having made a whole lot of profit, or more profit than you expected in a very short time, you may be feeling overwhelmed. This is when you need to remember some basics about the art of trading. The primary factor in making money and keeping it depends upon your ability to stop trading to get your emotions under control again. Stop trading for at least a few days to a week. This sounds ludicrous, but my experience with teaching traders for more than 20 years is that those who follow this rule keep their big gains while those who do not, lose them back to the market and then some. The reason behind this is emotion. You are in a state of emotional flux, not thinking logically. You are thinking, “I’m brilliant, I’m invincible, I am going to be rich!” Well, sure, but not at this moment. At this moment, you are overly exuberant, you are thinking you can do no wrong, so you are likely to miss the parts of your analysis that would keep you out of high-risk setups. So, take a few days to cool off. The Stock Market is not going anywhere. Great trades present themselves over and over again. While you are recovering from the shock of a large gain, these steps can help bring you back down to Earth : Review your notes from some of the courses you have taken. Reading back over rules and the reasons behind them for making sounding trading decisions helps a lot to keep you grounded. Review your trading plan and your goals. If you don't have this written out somewhere, do it now. Most people refuse to write down their goals because of “fear of failure.” They are so afraid that they are not capable of reaching those goals that they do not try. Try to write down realistic goals, and adjust them as you see the need. We have a calculator that we provide to our students for help with this. Once you do the task of setting goals, you will find that they are achieved much of the time. Consider if you need to increase your goals. Continually pushing yourself to reach higher and higher levels of efficiency and profit helps to both dispel the fear of failure and propel you forward with perhaps stricter rules to achieve those higher goals. Trading is 50% skill which, in short, includes understanding your Trading Style and using proper Strategies for the current Market Condition. The other 50% is controlling emotion, which includes setting goals, keeping calm and centered, using discipline in your trading rules, having the determination to keep working until you are successful, maintaining your personal parameters while expanding them, and using logic rather than emotion. These are the major components of making money and keeping it.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
NZDJPY breaks 200-day SMA; downward movement imminent?The New Zealand dollar to Japanese yen currency pair (NZD/JPY) saw an uptrend on the daily chart from March 2020 to July 2024, gaining 66.58% over the four-year period. Recently, however, the pair broke below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, signaling a potential trend reversal. The 200-day SMA, which had served as support for four years, now appears to be acting as resistance. Additionally, the NZD/JPY formed a double top, indicating that buyers were once more unable to push the price above the 92.00 mark. This double top region coincides with the 50% level of the bearish Fibonacci. Upward trend in NZDJPY driven by RBNZ-BOJ interest rate differential The strong upward trend had been driven by the interest rate differential between the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen. New Zealand, like many countries around the world, slashed interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic to stimulate its economy. However, as the economy began to recover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moved to raise rates to control inflation and avoid rampant price increases. With inflation now under control, the RBNZ has started cutting rates, with yesterday marking the third consecutive cut, as the central bank reduced New Zealand’s key interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. Japan, on the other hand, followed the opposite path, keeping its interest rate below 0 while other countries raised borrowing costs to control inflation — which is why the JPY has depreciated so much in recent years. However, in its most recent meetings, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) — Japan’s central bank — changed its stance and raised interest rates for the first time since 2016. With New Zealand’s interest rate declining and Japan’s interest rate increasing, there is potential for a medium-term devaluation of the NZD against the JPY. Downward movement in NZDJPY possible in coming months From a technical perspective, the following factors are at play: 1. Break of the uptrend on D1. 2. The 200-day SMA, which previously acted as support, is now serving as resistance. 3. A double top has formed on the daily chart. 4. The 50% Fibonacci region is bearish. Considering these technical factors and the diverging monetary policies of the central banks in Japan and New Zealand, a downward movement in NZD/JPY is possible in the coming months. If the price manages to break below 89.75, it is possible that it will fall to the 86.70 region in a few days. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
Crude oil saved by the 200-day MA (for now)A combination of factors saw crude oil snap its 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. China's equity markets plunged at double-digit levels when traders realised no new stimulus from China was to be unveiled after golden weak. US production forecasts were lowered by the EIA and concerns over the Middle East receded somewhat. An elongated bearish engulfing / outside day formed after its daily high met resistance at the September 2023 trendline. Yet the 200-day MA came to the rescue. For now at least. Given the 4-hour bullish hammer at the 200-day MA and weekly R1 pivot, alongside a heavily oversold RSI (2) on that timeframe, I suspect a cheeky bounce could be in order. Bulls could cautiously seek dips for a move to $75 or $76. Yet the magnitude of Tuesday's selloff suggests bears may be lurking at higher prices to re-enter upon any such bounce. Bears could wait to fade into such levels in anticipation of a return to the $70, near a high-volume node (HVN) and 61.8% Fibonacci level. MS
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
Why I’m Betting Bearish on GBPNZD: Key Market Drivers ExplainedAs I prepare to share my trade idea for GBPNZD, my overall bias is bearish. Here are some key fundamentals currently influencing this outlook: 1. UK Economic Slowdown: The UK is facing economic challenges, with high inflation and downgraded growth forecasts. This situation tends to weaken the British Pound against other currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar. 2. RBNZ's Hawkish Stance: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to maintain a strong monetary policy, focusing on controlling inflation. This contrasts sharply with the UK's more cautious approach, which supports a stronger NZD. 3. Seasonal Trends: Historically, GBPNZD has shown a bearish trend from mid-August through December. This seasonal behavior suggests that now is an opportune time to consider short positions. In my trading strategy for GBPNZD, I rely on probabilities to guide my decisions for entering short positions. In summary, by leveraging probabilities based on historical data and current market fundamentals, I aim to position myself advantageously for short trades on GBPNZD. This disciplined approach aligns with my bearish outlook and enhances my trading effectiveness. I look forward to sharing my journey in this trade and welcome any thoughts or feedback! 2W: Hourly TF:
Short
by Jasminex1x2