BTC/USDT.P Trade setupSwing Trade:
if today's daily candle closes confirming the lower high, I would be interested to get into a swing short as we are likely retracing further down for a lower low retest some of the previous broke out areas.
However, if in 7 hours and today's candle closes bullish and continues the the trend upwards, then this idea would be invalidated.
I would not get into this trade until the this daily candle closes. It is Friday, and price action can get crazy (as you can see for the past few hours lol), trade safely.
Swingtrading
Tesla bull momentum Q3Relative volume 2.9/D
Want to see that we are below the closing price to go long and fill the pre-market gap.
First 260.3 tp is thereafter 50% of holdings must be checked daily with trailing stop
I believe in a strong bull race after the positive q3 report and a lot of buzz around bull analyses.
To have approved pos long, we must be bearish pre-market with a RR above 1:2
Today's date: 10/25/2024
Will update when USA opens with potential entry
Bikaji Foods - Long Setup (Swing Trade)Bikaji Foods has confirmed a long setup after breaking the entry zone. Here's the trade setup:
Entry Price: 874.9 (Confirmed after the 15-minute candle broke above the entry zone at 866 )
Target: 952.4
Stop Loss: 822.8 (Valid if a daily candle closes below this level)
The entry price of 874.9 has been confirmed, and the setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. The stock is aiming for a potential move towards the target of 9 52.4 , with a well-defined stop loss at 822.8 to manage risk.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
ETHUSD: Bullish Bias with 58.65% Probability of Hitting TP1I'm feeling bullish on ETHUSD and looking to take some long positions.
My approach is all about using probabilities based on solid math and historical data from my charts.
Why probabilities?
They help me make smarter decisions by showing how often certain price levels have been reached in the past. This gives me a clearer idea of where I might want to enter and exit trades.
By analyzing past price movements, I can build my confidence in this trade and keep emotions in check.
With a 58.65% probability of hitting TP1, this setup looks like a great opportunity to ride the potential upward movement in Ethereum!
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for more information check out my BIO!
Shriram Properties - Breakdown from Box Pattern (Swing Trade)Shriram Properties has experienced a rejection from all-time highs (ATH) around ₹150 and has broken down from a box pattern (highlighted in orange) between ₹110 and ₹150 , with price action showing low volume during the breakdown. The stock is now approaching a strong support zone between ₹100 and ₹105 , just above the FIB Weekly Zone .
Support Zone: The ₹100-₹105 range has been a key support level multiple times in the past (black arrows).
Box Pattern Breakdown: The stock has broken out of the consolidation phase (box pattern) with low volume, signaling potential weakness.
Rejection from ATH: The stock faced strong rejection near the ATH level of ₹150, which has led to the current downtrend.
FIB Weekly Zone: The ₹90-₹100 zone offers additional support if the price dips further, providing another potential reversal area.
Entry Strategy:
I’ll wait for a bullish candle to form near the support zone (₹100-₹105). Once confirmed, I will look for a 15-minute candle to break the high of the daily candle to confirm the entry.
This setup suggests that a potential reversal could happen near the support zone, but confirmation from price action will be key.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
Himadri Specialty Chem - Breakout Setup (Swing Trade)Himadri Specialty Chem is approaching an important zone for a potential breakout setup. Here's the plan:
Entry Zone: 591
Entry Price: Once a 15-minute candle breaks above 591 , the high of that candle will confirm the entry.
Target: 662.8
Stop Loss: 555.10 (Stop loss will be triggered only if a daily candle closes below this level)
The price is nearing the entry zone at 591 , and a confirmed breakout could signal a rally towards the target of 662.8 . The stop loss is placed at 555.10 , with a daily close below this level as the exit signal.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
BHEL - Approaching Key Support Zone (Swing Trade Setup)BHEL is currently approaching a major support zone around the 220-230 range , which has held strong in the past (highlighted by the blue arrows). This zone has provided multiple bounces previously, and it will be crucial to see how the price reacts here.
Support Zone: 220-230 range
Current Price: 223.70
Entry Strategy: I’ll be watching for a bullish or green daily candle to form near the support zone. Once that happens, I’ll look for a 15-minute candle to break the high of the bullish daily candle to confirm my entry.
RSI Insight: The RSI is currently around 24.44 , suggesting the stock is in oversold territory, which could increase the likelihood of a bounce from the support zone.
If the support holds and we get a confirmed bullish daily candle , combined with the RSI in oversold territory, this could set up for a solid swing trade.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
Swing vs. Scalping: Who Really Wins?In the world of trading, data from industry sources often paints a picture that can be misleading for individual traders. Brokers and trading platforms promote high success rates, particularly for more frequent traders like scalpers, but the reality is often far more complex. In this post, we'll break down some of the numbers presented by industry sources and contrast them with independent research to give you a clearer perspective.
Industry-Sourced Success Rates
According to various industry sources, here’s what the reported success rates look like:
Scalper (Under 5-minute operator):
Success Rate: 50-70%
Reasoning:
High trade frequency.
Small price movements.
Greater liquidity.
Short-term trend strategies.
Swing Trader:
Success Rate: 30-50%
Reasoning:
Lower trade frequency.
Larger price movements.
Greater exposure to risk.
Medium to long-term trend strategies.
At first glance, it seems like scalping offers a better chance of success. More frequent trades, combined with the liquidity of short-term moves, are presented as reasons why scalpers may be more successful. But should you trust these numbers at face value?
Conflicts of Interest in Industry Data
These industry-reported numbers may not be as reliable as they seem. Several potential conflicts of interest come into play when brokers and trading platforms promote certain types of trading:
Platform Promotion: Platforms often highlight strategies that lead to more frequent trades, as these generate higher commissions for brokers.
Attracting Active Traders: Scalpers tend to make more trades, and brokers benefit from the higher transaction volume.
Risk Policies: Some platforms may structure their risk management tools and incentives to favor short-term trading.
What Independent Sources Say
When we look at independent, non-conflicted sources, a different picture starts to emerge. Independent academic studies suggest that swing traders may actually perform better than scalpers, for several reasons:
Lower Trade Frequency: Swing traders typically make fewer trades, which reduces the impact of commission fees and spreads on their returns.
Focus on Trends and Fundamentals: Swing traders often use technical analysis and fundamental factors to capture larger price moves, improving their potential for larger gains.
Better Risk Management: With more time between trades, swing traders tend to employ more disciplined risk management practices.
Less Stress and Fatigue: Scalping requires constant focus, which can lead to poor decision-making due to stress or fatigue.
Independent Studies: Swing Traders vs. Scalpers
Let’s take a look at some independent studies that tell a different story from the industry narrative:
University of California Study (2019): Found that swing traders had an average annual return of 12.6%, compared to 6.8% for scalpers.
Journal of Trading Report (2018): Showed a success rate of 55.6% for swing traders, compared to 41.4% for scalpers.
QuantConnect Report (2020): Strategies based on swing trading delivered an average annual return of 15.6%, outperforming scalping strategies.
These studies highlight how swing trading can offer better risk-reward profiles compared to the fast-paced, high-stress world of scalping.
Key Takeaways for Individual Traders
The key lesson here is not to fall for marketing hype or industry reports that may push you towards a specific style of trading, especially one that benefits the platforms you trade on. Here’s what you should keep in mind:
Be Critical: Always question the sources of information. Industry success rates might be skewed by conflicts of interest.
Independent Research: Seek out independent studies, academic journals, and unbiased platforms to get a clearer picture.
Understand Your Goals: Both swing trading and scalping come with risks. Choose a trading style that fits your goals, risk tolerance, and lifestyle.
Focus on Long-Term Growth: While scalping may seem exciting, swing trading tends to offer better long-term results by focusing on fewer, higher-quality trades with disciplined risk management.
Recommended Resources for Objective Information
Academic Journals: Journal of Trading, Journal of Financial Markets.
University Studies: Seek out financial studies from universities like Stanford or Berkeley.
Independent Platforms: QuantConnect, Backtrader.
Specialized Blogs: TradingView, Investopedia.
In conclusion, while the industry may promote fast-paced trading with promises of high success rates, the reality for individual traders is often quite different. Take the time to educate yourself and base your decisions on unbiased, independent information to improve your chances of success.
P.S. Stay tuned for my next post, where I'll dive deeper into the topic, going beyond the potential use of misleading advertising. I'll demonstrate, using statistical methods—specifically, a covariance analysis—why larger time frames, like those used in swing trading, are mathematically more favorable for individual traders. Don't miss it!
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading is risky, and you should always conduct thorough research or consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
SWING TUTORIAL - MFSLIn this tutorial, we analyze the stock NSE:MFSL (MAX FINANCIAL SERV LTD) identifying a lucrative swing trading opportunity following its all-time high in July 2021. The stock declined by nearly 50%, forming a Lower Low Price Action Pattern, but subsequently reversed its trend.
At the same time, we can also observe the MACD Level making a contradictory Pattern of Higher Highs. This Higher High Pattern of the MACD signaled the start of a Bullish Momentum, thereby also signaling a good Buying Opportunity.
The trading strategy yielded approximately 80% returns in 71 weeks. Technical analysis concepts used included price action analysis, MACD, momentum reversal, trend analysis and chart patterns. The MACD crossover served as the Entry Point, with the stock rising to its Swing High Levels of 1148 and serving as our Exit too.
As of wiring this tutorial, we can also notice how the stock is making a breakout and retest of the Swing High levels and trying to continue its momentum further upward trying to make a new All Time High.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Momentum Reversal: The stock's price action shifted from a bearish to a bullish trend, indicating a potential reversal.
2. MACD Indicator: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line showed steady upward momentum, signaling increasing bullish pressure.
3. MACD Crossover: The successful crossover in May 2023 confirmed the bullish trend, creating an entry opportunity.
TRADING STRATEGY AND RESULTS:
1. Entry Point: MACD crossover in May 2023.
2. Exit Point: Swing High Levels - 1148.
3. Return: Approximately 80%.
4. Trade Duration: 71 weeks.
NOTE: This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining technical indicators to identify bullish momentum. By recognizing Price Action, MACD movements, and Reversal patterns, traders can pinpoint potential entry and exit points.
Would you like to explore more technical analysis concepts or case studies? Share your feedback and suggestions in the comments section below.
L&T Finance - Strong Support Zone Swing Trade SetupL&T Finance has reached a key support zone around the 140-145 range , which has been tested several times in the past (indicated by the blue arrows). This zone has consistently held up, with strong rebounds, signaling significant buying interest.
Support Zone: 140-145 range
Current Price: 150.40
Entry Strategy: I’ll be watching for a bullish or green daily candle forming near the support zone. Once that candle is established, I’ll look for a 15-minute candle to break above the high of the daily candle. Once that happens, the entry will be confirmed.
If the support holds and we get a bullish daily candle, followed by a 15-minute breakout, this could be a strong setup for a reversal. The volume spike seen here also adds confidence that buyers may be stepping back in at these levels.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly.
USOIL: Multi-Timeframe Analysis | Strong Setup FormingI've been looking at various markets recently, and USOIL really stood out to me. I want to share how I analyze markets using a mechanical top-down approach across all timeframes to form my trading bias.
Top-Down Analysis:
This method is crucial in my trading strategy. It helps me stay objective by focusing on what the market is indicating regarding trends and key levels, rather than letting my personal opinions cloud my judgment.
By adopting a systematic approach, I've been able to reduce doubts and fears in my trading decisions.
Now, let's dive into the top-down analysis process.
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HFTs gaps: Learn how to enter a stock before a huge gap up.High Frequency Trading companies are market makers/takers that provide liquidity for the public exchanges, and they now use AI. HFTs have a huge impact on your profitability. You can make higher profits from trading ahead of the HFT gaps and riding the momentum upward or downward.
In this short video, you'll learn some basics on how to identify the patterns that precede HFT gaps, which I call Pro Trader Nudges . Learn what to look for in Volume patterns and pre-gap price action.
Make sure you are not chasing HFTs but riding the wave of momentum they create, just like professional traders do.
SWING IDEA - TORRENT POWERTorrent Power, a major player in the power sector, is showing strong technical signs of a swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
1650 Support Zone : The 1650 level has acted as a strong support zone, and the price is holding steady around this level, indicating potential upside.
Bullish Engulfing Candle on Daily Timeframe : A bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart suggests strong buying momentum, indicating that the stock may reverse from its current support zone.
Double Bottom Pattern : The formation of a double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal signal, indicating the stock may have completed its downtrend and is now primed for an upward move.
0.618 Fibonacci Level Support : The stock has bounced back from the golden Fibonacci retracement level, providing additional support to the bullish thesis.
50 EMA Support : The price is holding above the 50-day exponential moving average, adding strength to the current setup and suggesting the trend is intact.
Target - 1908 // 2000
Stoploss - daily close below 1610
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
SWING IDEA - AMBER ENTERPRISESAmber Enterprises , a leading player in the Indian air conditioning and refrigeration industry, is showing technical signals that suggest a promising swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
4600 Resistance Breakout : The 4600 level has been a significant resistance zone. The price is now breaking out above this level, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Strong Bullish Marubozu Candle on Daily and Weekly Timeframes : The recent formation of bullish marubozu candles on both the daily and weekly charts indicates strong buying pressure and suggests potential for further upward movement.
Trading Above 50 and 200 EMA : The stock is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), reinforcing the bullish sentiment and providing strong support levels.
Higher Highs : The stock is consistently making higher highs, indicating a strong upward trend.
Gradual Increase in Volumes : A noticeable increase in trading volumes confirms the strength of the price move and indicates growing investor interest.
Trading at All-Time High : The stock is trading at its all-time high, suggesting strong market confidence and potential for further gains.
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
SWING IDEA - ANGELONENSE:ANGELONE 's stock price has been retesting around the 2000 resistance level for approximately two and half years. Following multiple retest, the stock finally broke out above this level in October 2023 and has since established it as a key support.
The stock subsequently surged to a peak of 3895, representing a 87% increase. However, it then experienced a sharp correction, plummeting 45% to revisit the 2000 support level again. This pivotal point, formerly a resistance, has now become a robust support.
Currently, ANGELONE is exhibiting an upward momentum, poised to retest its swing high at 3895. The weekly MACD crossover, occurring after the establishment of support at 2000, indicates a bullish trend reversal.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
- Two-year resistance level of 2000 broken in October 2023
- Stock surged 87% to 3895 before correcting 45%
- 2000 level now serves as robust support
- Weekly MACD crossover indicates bullish momentum
- Upward momentum poised to retest swing high at 3895
RECOMMENDATION:
Based on this technical analysis, I would recommend holding ANGELONE for a Long Term horizon. This could potentially yield:
- 35% returns from the current price (as of writing)
- 87% returns from the support point (2000)
This analysis highlights a compelling buying opportunity in ANGELONE, driven by its breakout and momentum reversal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Investors should be aware that there is a possibility that the stock may revisit this Support level at 2000 in the near future before resuming its upward momentum towards the swing high at 3895. This potential pullback should be monitored closely, and investors may consider adjusting their strategies accordingly.
DISCLAIMER: This IDEA is for informational/educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The analysis presented is based on technical indicators and historical data but does not guarantee future performance. Please conduct thorough research based on financial goals and risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NZDUSD: New Low After Breakout 🇳🇿🇺🇸
Quick update for NZDUSD:
the pair has recently violated a key daily horizontal support.
After a breakout, the market nicely retested the broken structure
and started to fall from that.
With the yesterday's bearish movement, the price managed to set
a new Lower Low. It is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
I believe that the pair has a good potential to drop even lower.
Next support - 0.599
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GBPUSD: Bearish Movement in a Channel 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD is currently trading in a bearish trend.
The price is steadily falling within a channel on a 4H.
After a test of the upper boundary of the channel,
we see a strong bearish reaction to that.
With a high probability, the price will continue going down.
Next support - 1.295
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Zomato - Swing Long SetupZomato has already broken the entry zone on the 15-minute chart , confirming the entry price at 271 . This setup is valid only for today. Here’s the trade plan:
Entry Price: 271
Target: 320.2
Stop Loss: 240.40 (Stop loss will trigger only if a daily candle closes below this level)
With the entry confirmed at 271 , I’m aiming for a potential move toward 320.2 . The stop loss is set at 240.40 , but will only be triggered if a daily candle closes below this level.
Important: This setup is valid for today only. I'll reassess after today's close for further action.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
Why EURUSD is Plummeting and How You Can Take Advantage of ItI am adopting a bearish bias on EUR/USD and will leverage probabilities derived from statistical and historical data to position myself for short trades.
By analyzing past market trends and current economic indicators, I aim to make informed decisions that enhance my trading success.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Outlook:
- Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, which strengthens the USD against the EUR, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider rate cuts in response to economic challenges.
- Economic Performance: Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is facing significant headwinds, with disappointing growth figures that negatively impact market sentiment.
- Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment leans bearish towards the euro, with many traders already positioned short. This collective positioning could lead to further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
These elements provide a solid foundation for my bearish outlook, making it an opportune moment to enter short positions.
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HOURLY ENTRY:
If you require additional clarification, or wish to share your thoughts, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!