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BITCOIN - The $8,000!Here is a quick overview of the $8,000 level. Definitely, it is an interesting level and interesting are also conclusions below in this analysis. Historically it has been a very strong area, multiple times it has worked as a support level and as a resistance level. If we start to count those rejections (smaller and bigger) then we get 10(!) rejections from the blue area. There is also one important factor which makes this area stronger. If the price want's to go through from it then it has occurred only with strong candles and there are 6(!) strong candles managed to push the price through the strong area! Every time when the price has reached into the marked area (blue marked area range: $7,700-$8,000) it makes something, so, here is the first conclusion - in this area, the long consolidation period is out of the options! Let's talk about the direction after the breakout or after the rejection. There are 10 rejections and 6 breakthroughs. Three candles have made a breakout upwards and from there, two times out of three the price has got a bigger and a smaller rally: - Breakthrough on 2017 November guided the Bitcoin price into the ATH (all time high) - Breakthrough on 2018 April guided the price to the $10,000 - Breakthrough on 2018 July was a fakeout So, we can do some math and we can say that a Weekly candle close above the $8,000 will be a sign that the price can go higher, at least two times out of three it has made a pump! Things getting more interesting, as I said, we have got a pretty high numerous count of rejections BUT if the price approaching that $8,000 level as a resistance, then we have only ONE bigger rejection from it and the one mentioned fake out - on 2018 July, a candle close above of it and next week quickly downwards. The bigger rejection was exactly one week before the ATH breakthrough in November. SUMMARY: This little overview and fifth-grade math will say that the price can take this level down but the sample size is not enough to say it "surely" and obviously, we need to wait for a Weekly candle close. In summary, if the price has approached this level from the bottom side then the breakthroughs and followthrough after that have been a more likely scenario IF this occurs but as said firstly the price has to close above the $8,000. The rejection is also valid because of the strong resistance which was in my previous post - below of this post. "If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn’t." – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is mostly used for educational purposes only! Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
12
RIPPLE (XRP/USD) - Do Not FOMO, Wait For Opportunities!Currently, the price is on the pretty strong resistance area (orange lines) and soon there is also an important trendline which should act as a resistance level. If you are a short-term or mid-term trader and if you want to buy it right now, then I have to say - do buy it on the tip and do buy it near the strong resistance is definitely a mistake, we need to wait for technically decent entry areas. First one is around $0.35-38 . This area has worked pretty heavily as a resistance level and if the market is healthy then it should be a classical role reversal situation - an old resistance becomes support. The second one is a bit higher but that's not a problem, because technically it is a great buy opportunity! We need a breakout confirmations to be more sure and secure about the next legs upwards. Wait for a break above the strong resistances (orange lines), wait for a breakout above the trendline and then wait for a trendline retest entry opportunity. "Wait, wait, wait", yes, you should wait for those, remember to be patient!! "1. Anything can happen. 2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique." – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is mostly used for educational purposes only!
by VaidoVeek
7
BITCOIN - The First Clean Resistance Area, The New HH!?The consistency, the consistency, the consistency - I have mentioned it multiple times and again it is the major indication in the crypto world. As you see those last candles getting bigger and bigger after every candle, that is exactly what I mean by that but let's take a look about the current situation. First clean resistance areas: Here, around $8,000, we have the first major clean resistance area. Remember the Fibonacci party in 2018, when every high was almost exactly that Fibonacci golden ratio 62%. Currently, the first blue area just above the current price is one of the tops from the Fibo party! This level should put the price under the bigger pressure after the rally from 4k. Yes, the pressure was also around the $6k but this level got cracked pretty quickly - like a warm knife through the butter. Luckily/unfortunately this is not just a clean resistance, here we can find more interesting parts. The curve trendline: Touching points are marked as the green boxes and the fourth touch matching exactly with the strong resistance area around $8,000. This is not just a random curve trendline, to confirm that I made copy/paste and it matching exactly with the lower points on the graph. It makes an interesting curve channel where the price has drifted more than a year now. Fibonacci retracement 38% & 62%: 38% is pulled from the 2018 high point to the 2018 low point. 62% is pulled from the point where the curve trendline starts and drawn to the 2018 low point. Those together may give a slight impact, individually they should not work at the moment because of the price pump. One Fibo level can't stop this train but there is resistance, curve trendlines and now two Fibo levels which may(!!) give a possible rejection, if not, then we have also another scenario, scenario which needs a confirmation close. Soon we can find out, do this level works or not, at least it should be a pretty hard test for the price. Whenever the throwback starts, it should be smoother than the upwards movement. The scenario which needs a confirmation: IF the price can reach above the mentioned strong resistance area (blue area) and if it gets a close above of it - at least Daily candle close is needed - then we have a pretty nice breakout upwards, long-term higher high (HH) is confirmed and the next major target is another strong and clean resistance area which is also the psychological level $10000. Can't promise higher levels than that but if the consistency continues then there is also one of the key resistance just above the $12,000. Actually, it is unbelievable that I have to type in five digits numbers after I say BTC price, it happened pretty fast :) "Most people know that the outcome of a coin toss is random. If you believe the outcome is random, then you naturally expect a random outcome. Randomness implies at least some degree of uncertainty. When we accept in advance of an event that we don’t know how it will turn out, that acceptance has the effect of keeping our expectations neutral and open-minded. If you really believed in a random distribution between wins and losses, could you ever feel betrayed by the market?!" – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
22
EURCHF - Buy After The ConfirmationEURCHF is almost ready to make a 4H candle close above the counter trendline, which is also the mentioned breakout confirmation. If the candle close is too high then wait for a trendline retest! The trade is active ONLY after the 4H candle close above the counter trendline!! Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
Long
by VaidoVeek
CADCHF - A Possible BUY Area!Here we need to wait for a rejection from the marked box. The box consists of several price action criteria which indicate that we could see a short-term bounce/reversal. Trendlines, round number, ..., 1H possible double bottom formation on the trendline and etc. As said, wait for rejection on the 1H timeframe. Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
Long
by VaidoVeek
BITCOIN - Finally, The Trenline(s)!!Again, I'm here to give you a little overview of the current market situation. The market is very weird, BTC flying, altcoins are on the downswing (today they have started to make first steps to higher prices), the BTC price has cracked strong resistances after another, etc. Just to bring technically good levels, I'm here to make a little technical analysis. The resistance area which was around the $6,000 was on my watchlist for a while but it got weaker every time after someone made an idea post to the TradingView: "Watch this level!", "Look at $6k!!" If everybody can see those levels then market makers can use it easily . So, that's why I have been a bit cautious and haven't call any significant selling areas after the breakout from $5,500, but let's jump quickly to the current action, things can quickly change. Fiannly there is an area where is one of my favorite price action criteria, an important trendline. The black trendline which has three clean touches from last year (orange boxes). It has worked nicely as a support level and probably it plays also a significant role in the current resistance area. The significant part is the strong candle breakthrough in 2018 November. This strong candle shows that this level, this trendline is really strong because there was needed a hell of a power to push the price downwards. Now, it becomes a resistance and the price is really on the edge to make a correction so, it could be a nice area where it can start it. It should be a classical retest situation which took more than half a year! Parallel channel projection, drawn from the bodies to remove market noise! The major trendline is the bottom, copy/paste to the higher green point and we get a crossing are just above the current price with the black trendline, around $6,500. Between light blue lines - Monthly Highs/Lows There are 4 Monthly highs/lows. Not so significant but it matching exactly with our trendlines crossing area and still, it shows that the area is capable to print new lows and highs, which is a great confirmation! The round number $6,500 It played a significant role in the second half of 2018. Price drifted between 6k and 6.5k, so, an area which should be on the chart to make a crossing area a bit stronger! There are more some sloppy criteria but not so significant to mark those, only remarkable criterion is the Daily RSI Divergence , which is still on the chart! Summary: The most important criteria are the trendline, which has a really powerful candle breakthrough (break below of it) and now it should work as resistance especially after that awesome price pump, and the parallel channel crossing area. There are other criteria to make that area a bit stronger but please, be patient. As I said before, the price has cracked resistance after another and easily it can be the next one. To be more secure about the resistance, you should wait for bearish price action around the marked area, around the crossing area. Bearish price action = bearish candlestick patterns on the higher(!!) timeframes 4H or Daily, bearish chart pattern breakouts on the 1H or 4H. "If someone or something is against you and causes you pain, how are you likely to respond? You’ll feel compelled to fight, but what exactly are you fighting? The market is certainly not fighting you. Yes, the market wants your money, but it also provides you with the opportunity to take as much as you can." – Mark Douglas Hopefully, it was helpful, feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
15
BITCOIN - Is It Possible To Catch SpaceX?Now, more than four days, the Bitcoin price has danced around the first strong price level between the mentioned super-strong resistance at $5,777-$6,106. Those orange lines mark three Monthly lows from 2018: June, February and August. Yesterday the price reached almost to the $6,000 but it didn't get a close above the August low at $5,900 . Five(!) rejections from the mentioned resistance and the day got an end below the all of those marked Monthly lows plus below the Fibonacci 62% retracement level: As you see on the Daily timeframe yesterday's candle close gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Shooting Stars" . It got a rejection from the all three Monthly lows which now has become resistances and rejection from the Fibo level which is pulled from the 2018 September high (~$7,400) to the 2018 low (~$3,125) point. This Fibo level and those resistances have worked four times on the Daily chart - four attempts to go higher has failed, let's see what we gonna get from today's price action but looks like bulls are still trying to push the price up. Yesterday's bearish candlestick pattern was a slight indication that bears are starting to come in but slowly, slowly. Let's count a bit more subjective price action criteria than those Monthly resistances and Fibo level which should make the area around $5,900 even stronger than it looks like. Let's start from the ABC Equal waves. A little bit complicated but try to stay with me - after the rally at the beginning of the April, the BTC price made a slight throwback and the ABC waves count would start from there, from 4. April low. Slowly climbing to point A on 23. April high, another throwback and there is point B. Now, equal waves are pretty nice price action criteria which will end some movements and corrections. Currently, the waves from point 0 to A and from point B to C are equal, both lengths are $877, and the C point is exactly on the well-known resistance area around the $5,900. So, another criterion which will be an indication that the area is strong and the correction may start soon. The well-known ascending channel. Channel upper trendline has worked several times as resistance and so as now. This trendline runs through the $5,900. Yesterday, the price made a slight breakout from it but the Daily candle still got a close inside of it. So, another criterion which makes this area stronger. All criteria together: 1. Three last years Monthly lows have worked nicely as resistance levels 2. Multiple times worked ascending channel upper trendline runs through the $5,900 which should work as a resistance. 3. ABC Equal waves counting ends around the $5,900 4. Fibonacci retracement level 62% have worked nicely as resistance, especially on the Daily timeframe. 5. A bit sloppy Fibonacci extension 161% is around the $5,900. 6. And yesterday, the Bitcoin price touched those all criteria, got a rejection and this rejection and the day ends with a bearish candlestick pattern called "Shooting Star" Yes, pretty decent price action criteria but as they say, it is hard to catch a falling knife and currently, it is hard to catch a SpaceX . Actually, to me, there are no other options because of the strong resistance, it is just SO close to the current price. Obviously, the market is on the heavy bullish mode but the resistance, just above us, is also heavy as hell. So, actually, again, it looks like a pretty decent sell setup considering that area and considering that Daily bearish candle ( To make a bit more confirmed sell then there is a red line. After the red line break the sell is triggered and probably a bit more secure! ) but still, it is a little bit hesitating because of the current consistency. Consistency has a magic power on the crypto world and this magic power could easily drive the price above those orange lines, above the heavy resistance which should end above the $6,106! Oh, almost forgot, there is a gray area and there is a slightly darker gray area. The darker area is a stronger area than the others around that because of the multiple rejections to either direction and because of the strong candles breakthroughs. So, currently, we have 30 min to go to another 4H candle close, if it gets a close above the darker area, then this could be a sign that bulls just do not give up but if it falls lower than the darker area then it should be more bearish, just a slight and tiny indications to add into your analysis. Hopefully You enjoyed the post, feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
13
EURGBP - Strong Area - SELLWait for a bearish price action from the current blue box (bearish candlestick pattern, etc.) - 2018 Low - 2019 January low - Daily EMA 50 - 4H EMA 200 - Fibonacci retracement 62% - Previously worked support level becomes resistance - Round number 0.86000 - The trendline "The market generates behavior patterns and the patterns repeat themselves, but not every time." – Mark Douglas Feel free to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Have a nice day, Cheers! *This information is not a recommendation to go "LONG" or "SHORT", it is mostly used for educational purposes only!
Short
by VaidoVeek