Swiss
USDCHF going short for longterm tradesDollar vs Swiss is going short. This is my prediction based on pure technical analysis.
First take profit is roughly at 0.94578 and the final take profit would be at the major resistance line 0.91937. The perfect entry would have been at 0.95450, however one can enter at the current market price as long as you keep in mind that the stop loss is at 0.96271.
Lets see how the market pans out!
SXY (Swiss Franc) Swissie So, the Swiss Franc is generally used as a reserve currency. Something different from The Reserve Currency, but similiar. During times of high volatility investors look to throw their money in safe haven currencies like the Swiss to protect from the wild whipsaws of the market.
So, here on the swiss there are no Harmonic Patterns to speak of so the COT data will have to work.
So, what we have is the Swissie is the Non-Coms took a major step foraward toward the Zero Line.
The commercials have further increased their longs to 16,366 which is a 1,934 increase from 14,432 and the Non-Coms are really increasing their shorts by double. We went from 4,375 to 8,697 orders short which is an increase of 4,322.
Now on to the Net data:
the Commercials:
current- (4,280) // Previous- (7,754)
Non-Coms
Current- 1,766 // Previous- 8,989
So as you can see we have taken major steps to the zero line especially in regards to the Non-Coms which i think the Swiss' bull run is coming to an end, and it might be wise to plan on shorting the Swiss here pretty soon.
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.06.05Clearly all the action has been in EURCHF after the enormous bids that came through into euro yesterday. Large macro players are liking what they hear from ECB and the Commission which is setting the stage for the EURCHF short-covering.
The key divergence can be seen in USDCHF breaking down, this isn't a CHF driven move but rather from the USD weakness. I am interested to chase this lower as risk sentiment begins to turn down again and CHF begins to find that safe-haven demand. Currently the outlook for CHF is firmly neutral, this can change as early as today's NFP.
How it behaves below the 0.950x handle will be thoroughly examined, the totally rigid cast around the risk rally is still part of a "KNEE JERK REACTION" phase from the initial crash. This means that markets will begin to start trading the facts around a recession and slow recovery. If any any doubts of the recession consider the following diagrams:
For a) see 2's 5's curve screaming recession
For b) , consider the unemployment levels
In this simplest of all positions, every other time this happened it ended badly for the economy. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. CHF appears in the FX desks to be starting to finally bow down to the boss, that is risk.
The blockader that is employment, is not flexible here and able to go on long journeys in all directions. The elasticity; should be kept in mind and used to analyse risk flows as such.
USDCHF - tracing wave c of a triangle patternUSDCHF is tracing a triangle pattern that will complete wave B. It is now in wave c of the triangle that should not surpass 1.0248. If price crosses down 0.918 this analysis should be revised. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
SMI (Swiss Index) - in the verge of counter-trend rally reversalSMI has finished or is very near to finish its primary wave 2. After wave 2 is finished, wave 3 down should lead the index to new lows. If the index crosses down 9,380 the odds are that wave 3 has already began. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
GBPCHF - Buying dips towards support at 1.1875 GBPCHF is Bullish - We look to Buy at 1.1875
▪️ Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
▪️ Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
▪️ Bespoke support is located at 1.1875.
▪️ Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 1.1875, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 1.1850
Target1: 1.1940
Target2: 1.1980
forex analysis USD/CHFHi friends
the graph of this market in a 1 hour period shows that it will experience a bearish trend in 4 hours also the same in day
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Check today analysis
Fundamentals
Swiss Franc Trade Balance Data Expected Negative That is Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month;
Data Release => 2:00 am Tuesday, Eastern Time (ET)
Credit Suisse Economic Expectations =>
Data Release => 4:00 am Thursday, Eastern Time (ET)
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EURCHF - Selling rallies within the triangle EURCHF is Bearish - We look to Sell at 1.0522
▪️ Price continues to trade within the triangle formation.
▪️ The continuation pattern should target levels between 1.0485 & 1.0500.
▪️ Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
▪️ Further downside is expected, however, due to the strong support below we prefer to sell a break of 1.0522, which will confirm the bearish sentiment.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 1.0533
Target1: 1.0485
Target2: 1.0475
NZDCHF Breakout?We saw prices break the previous resistance at 0.59124, now expected to become a new support level. Buy at the new support level and prices will continue to new resistance at 0.60350. Like if you agree.
SWISSQUOTE N to keep but to buy moreSWISSQUOTE N in showing huge bullish momentum not only to keep but to buy more
GBPCHF - Short term momentum remains bullish GBPCHF is Bullish - We look to Buy at 1.2035
▪️ Short term momentum is bullish.
▪️ We have a 50% Fibonacci pullback level of 1.2037 from 1.1869 to 1.2205.
▪️ Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
▪️ Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 1.2035, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 1 .2005
Target1: 1.2145
Target2: 1.2200
RISING WEDGE IN USDCHFIf you are risk taker, should enter this market at this moment with minimal risk, but this pattern haven't confirm yet if price can not break 0.9670.
but, if you want to waiting, look at 0.9670 before you join the market with sell order.
Looks like a downtrendFrom a TA point of view on the daily chart, looks like a nice downtrend we can hop in. Pointed out what I'm looking at on the chart. Trade safe and keep your money management on point.
USDCHF: 0.9710 | a 10 year Cycle is about to Happen Again #LONGThe LONG GAME is BACK... (Make America Great Again)
this feels like GOLD back at $1,200 levels
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i recall the day in 2010 and 2011 when this shook the FX space when the swiss decided to devalue in a heartbeat
now 10 years later 2020 of March, shall we cover back to 2010's fresh highs
see you halfway point folks
USDCHF This pair is very interesting as far as it shows kind of a crisis barometer, normally CHF is used as a safe haven so when something is going badly we can usually see an inverse situation when US dollar gain against almost everything but losses positions with Franc and Yen
Two scenarios I'm getting prepared with USDCHF:
1. Yellow: here we can have some enlargement of a correction after the uptrend impulse in March, after which we would also looking for a reversal;
2. Green: so in the case the correction is already done, we would see a bullish movement.
Personally, I will take the yellow scenario and let's see how it will work out.
USDCHF Bearish Momentum MarketMarket is overall sell so far and bear weighing against bull. Probably we may see some new lower highs and lower lows further.
CHF/JPY IDEAInteresting area to look at as we are approaching resistance on multiple time frames. Will be looking for a short once we break market structure. We are still currently in an uptrend.
