USDCHF - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
Swiss
USDCHF STRONG STRUCTURE ZONE (WATCH THIS PAIR) USDCHF STRONG STRUCTURE ZONE
I don't only want to post trades on here for you guys I also want to be able to post market outlooks and analysis as well. As you can see USDCHF is just starting to come into a very strong structure zone. Back in January of 2015 you can see that this market had a 16%+ drop in a matter of a week. THAT IS HUGE and as you can see it's something the market hasn't forgotten about and has been struggling to recover ever since. Market prices have not been able to break above this zone in years and this leads me to the fact that it is more probable that it will not any time soon. Now I could be wrong, but I let the market tell me what it wants to do and by the past few years it had shown me it can't break above that January 2015 high.
Keep an eye out on price in this zone in the upcoming months to watch and see how this pair plays out and if we can potentially capitalize on what the market tries to show us. Keep and eye out and keep it on your watch list because it is a really significant zone based on the data it is showing us from the past market conditions.
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USDCHF Testing a year-old resistance - Bullish ScenarioThat green area is a daily bearish orderblock that is now being used as a resistance for the third time.
So far this is the longest consolidation inside of it since we broke below in March 2017, which is a good indication that the resistance is weakening and may be broken anytime.
On the 4H chart, we've hit the local sweet spot for a retracement and are currently aiming to break that resistance.
Since we're still below it, entering now would be risky , but if we wait for the break above, and enter on the retest, we could make it a high probability trade with a target at the next weekly resistance level.
I will update or add a new idea once that happens, but watch for that break.
USDCHF Bearish scenario breakdownSince we're still below a major resistance, it's also possible to look for bearish scenarios. We will know what's going to happen once we have a break on either side.
If we break down from here and below the daily breaker (+ daily horizontal level), we'll be looking to short the retest and aiming for those lows there.
Again, wait for confirmation and trade carefully.
For the bullish side check out my previous idea.
The Long Term USD Bull Forex TradeQuestion: if someone held a gun to your head, and forced you to pick a 5 year+ forex pair that would capitalize on a USD bull market, which pair would it be?
Answer: USDCHF
The Swiss Franc has long since lost it's save haven status, and its largest trading partner is the EU, the failed 4th Reich. The Dollar remains the most sought-after currency in the world.
USDCHF has been in a 6 year basing pattern. With the formation of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, within a larger rising wedge, it may be the time to begin initiating long positions in this market.
Three targets are marked in purple. This is a long-term bullish USD trade, with a time horizon of 2-3 years.
EURCHF TO PUSH LOWER. ITALY PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE EURO.EURCHF could be a key chart to watch in the coming weeks as the Italy situation continues to put pressures on the EURO, not only that the FED are looking to continue there plan to hike rates which will have a massive impact on the value of the EURUSD. If the Italy saga continues we may see a run to the CHF as it is know as the european safe haven. Technicals show we are at a key resistance level and could potentially move lower from this point as the 4hr chart is starting to cycle lower. The key support of 1.1200 will be likely targets.
SLIGHT RELIEF TO CHFJPYCHFJPY has now come back to a key support level and technically this market looks to be oversold which could lead to some short term upside. Looking at the lower timeframes we can see a nice trendline resistance that if broken could lead to some short term upside with targets of the daily lows.
4hr Range Breakout PlayOn the daily, price showed a massive bull run from Aug 21-29th with overextension to 115.00 key resistance and a small double top.
The 4hr shows a range breakout and retest along with a 50ema break and retest at 4hr resistance and 38.3% fib.
The 1hr shows a downtrend forming along with a break and retest of 50ema and 4h/1h resistance.
Profit target is at the 1hr support (113.30) which is above Daily key support at 113.00
DOLLAR SWISS SHORT UPDATESecond target reached earlier today which I wrote about here . Currently the pair has found support right around 0.96750. Retail trade sentiment is biased long while market momentum continues to decline. Further downside seems ahead, although the pair might stabilize within the present price area.
Target III might be a little bit trickier to hit as we'll be in heavily oversold territory. Entry is currently @0.98584 from August 21st. Target III is set @0.95855 for an ~270 pip profit. So far we've pulled in ~360 pips from the initial short which you can read about here.
Selling Position - AUD/CHF I am so glad to be back posting after more then a year. My technical's are bleeding that its oversold but due to the fundamental for the Aussie being so poor keep a tight look on this but from what I can see its a great R:R. The technical side looks great. We haven't seen AUD/CHF at this level since 2016 so hopefully that level will be supported and expect a rally of at least 200+ pips. We also have a hidden bullish divergence so that should also tick another box of an upside.
USD/CHFUchf looks like it made a contracted flat at this point. If it is gonna drop, watch for a possible small flag at the .9900 level/trend line... It seems like we are still gonna finish this correction. I prefer to see those corrections break the high before they drop, but it can be considered completed now. The real entry was at that smaller flag.
SWISS as LAST opportunity? Where is the MONEY going?!Hey guys,
the market is nervous - We all can`t doubt on that.
Traderwar
Turkey
Iran
Seasonality
Brexit
Upcoming ECB changes
and much more...
AS the asia-crisis shows, we all need to think about the coming capital flow!
Where will the money go? What happens when there is almost only falling assets?
We`ve seen less yields in state bonds and an increased interest!
Is that our alternative?
How long can that USD climb that fast?
What will the FED do to stop that in order to prevent a deflation?
And how does that effect the interest in USD and stocks?
There is so much money in US-Indicies, especially in the tech-sector or stocks like
Netflix & Co. Where will the money go as soon as the recession comes? Which is obvisouly a consequence of higher interest rates! :-)
Back into other countrys?
There is too much to discuss about.
But I think it`s time to get prepared for the EURO-crisis, the stock-market-drop and an escalating tradewar.
AT LEAST get prepared.#
You never know.
Cheers and good trades
Irasor
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