Swiss
EURCHF - looking for a slide to year's bottom?EURCHF, H4, Daily and Weekly
EURCHF dropped sharply to a two-and-a-half month low at 1.1226 , breaking Support at 1.1260-61 on route. The losses reflect Brexit-related angst after UK Prime Minister May postponed the parliamentary vote on the EU Withdrawal Agreement, which generated confusion and increased the perceived risk of a hard, no-deal Brexit scenario.
In forex market meanwhile, the EURCHF confirmed our September 12 observation:
"Meanwhile, by observing the performance of the pair since May, we have also noticed that it seems to be forming the Elliot Wave theory, as it is presenting so far a 5-waves move in the downtrend. Theoretically, such move is followed by 3 corrective waves (a 5-3 move). Technically-wise, all the above, along with a closing above the 1.1330 Resistance level, could signal the possibility of 3 corrective moves to the upside. "
" Daily/Weekly: A close above the 20-day SMA and the 2-week peak, at 1.1330 – 1.1343, may meet resistance around the 1.1465-1.1470 Resistance area, this being the latest up fractal in the daily chart and the confluence of 50-day SMA and upper Bollinger Bands pattern
The market indeed confirmed, in November, the retest of 1.1465-1.1470 Resistance area as stated above, with the pair moving up to 1.1500 high and rejecting this level and returning lower today at the 1.12 territory.
Hence as the next immediate Support area, at 1.1170-1.1180 , represents the bottom of 2018, but also the 61.8% Fib. level set on 2017 rally, the FE100.0 and the FE 61.8 set in medium term and short term respectively.
Breaking this area, could imply a “free fall” for EURCHF, with the next Support set at FE161.8 and the 200-weekly SMA, at 1.1060-1.1080.
Medium-term indicators are configured negatively, with further steam to the downside. Intraday, the pair gains some traction, as the German ZEW investor confidence unexpectedly improved in expectation reading. Nevertheless, the negative bias holds, as the pair is trading further below the 1.1300 barrier.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
USDCHF - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
USDCHF STRONG STRUCTURE ZONE (WATCH THIS PAIR) USDCHF STRONG STRUCTURE ZONE
I don't only want to post trades on here for you guys I also want to be able to post market outlooks and analysis as well. As you can see USDCHF is just starting to come into a very strong structure zone. Back in January of 2015 you can see that this market had a 16%+ drop in a matter of a week. THAT IS HUGE and as you can see it's something the market hasn't forgotten about and has been struggling to recover ever since. Market prices have not been able to break above this zone in years and this leads me to the fact that it is more probable that it will not any time soon. Now I could be wrong, but I let the market tell me what it wants to do and by the past few years it had shown me it can't break above that January 2015 high.
Keep an eye out on price in this zone in the upcoming months to watch and see how this pair plays out and if we can potentially capitalize on what the market tries to show us. Keep and eye out and keep it on your watch list because it is a really significant zone based on the data it is showing us from the past market conditions.
Cheers! Please like and follow my profile for more posts of trades, analysis, and big profits! Cheers!
USDCHF Testing a year-old resistance - Bullish ScenarioThat green area is a daily bearish orderblock that is now being used as a resistance for the third time.
So far this is the longest consolidation inside of it since we broke below in March 2017, which is a good indication that the resistance is weakening and may be broken anytime.
On the 4H chart, we've hit the local sweet spot for a retracement and are currently aiming to break that resistance.
Since we're still below it, entering now would be risky , but if we wait for the break above, and enter on the retest, we could make it a high probability trade with a target at the next weekly resistance level.
I will update or add a new idea once that happens, but watch for that break.
USDCHF Bearish scenario breakdownSince we're still below a major resistance, it's also possible to look for bearish scenarios. We will know what's going to happen once we have a break on either side.
If we break down from here and below the daily breaker (+ daily horizontal level), we'll be looking to short the retest and aiming for those lows there.
Again, wait for confirmation and trade carefully.
For the bullish side check out my previous idea.
The Long Term USD Bull Forex TradeQuestion: if someone held a gun to your head, and forced you to pick a 5 year+ forex pair that would capitalize on a USD bull market, which pair would it be?
Answer: USDCHF
The Swiss Franc has long since lost it's save haven status, and its largest trading partner is the EU, the failed 4th Reich. The Dollar remains the most sought-after currency in the world.
USDCHF has been in a 6 year basing pattern. With the formation of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, within a larger rising wedge, it may be the time to begin initiating long positions in this market.
Three targets are marked in purple. This is a long-term bullish USD trade, with a time horizon of 2-3 years.
EURCHF TO PUSH LOWER. ITALY PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE EURO.EURCHF could be a key chart to watch in the coming weeks as the Italy situation continues to put pressures on the EURO, not only that the FED are looking to continue there plan to hike rates which will have a massive impact on the value of the EURUSD. If the Italy saga continues we may see a run to the CHF as it is know as the european safe haven. Technicals show we are at a key resistance level and could potentially move lower from this point as the 4hr chart is starting to cycle lower. The key support of 1.1200 will be likely targets.
SLIGHT RELIEF TO CHFJPYCHFJPY has now come back to a key support level and technically this market looks to be oversold which could lead to some short term upside. Looking at the lower timeframes we can see a nice trendline resistance that if broken could lead to some short term upside with targets of the daily lows.
4hr Range Breakout PlayOn the daily, price showed a massive bull run from Aug 21-29th with overextension to 115.00 key resistance and a small double top.
The 4hr shows a range breakout and retest along with a 50ema break and retest at 4hr resistance and 38.3% fib.
The 1hr shows a downtrend forming along with a break and retest of 50ema and 4h/1h resistance.
Profit target is at the 1hr support (113.30) which is above Daily key support at 113.00
DOLLAR SWISS SHORT UPDATESecond target reached earlier today which I wrote about here . Currently the pair has found support right around 0.96750. Retail trade sentiment is biased long while market momentum continues to decline. Further downside seems ahead, although the pair might stabilize within the present price area.
Target III might be a little bit trickier to hit as we'll be in heavily oversold territory. Entry is currently @0.98584 from August 21st. Target III is set @0.95855 for an ~270 pip profit. So far we've pulled in ~360 pips from the initial short which you can read about here.