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🔥 MODIFICATION: CHFJPY 🔥 POSITION TRADE 🔥Being that Price Action (PA) continues to go long, please manage your trades as we take the risk of shorting it from here. SSO1 @ 158.50 ⏳ SSO2 @ 152.60 ⏳ TP1 @ 141.33 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 131.85 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 124.90 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 114.15 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO1 @ 111.55 ⏳ BLO2 @ 105.25 ⏳ WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
1
CHF Hits Highest Against Dollar Since 2015 Amidst Possible US De As you may already know, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has recently reached its highest level against the US Dollar (USD) since 2015. This surge in CHF's value can be attributed to a combination of factors, including growing concerns over the US economy potentially slipping into a deflationary phase. While it is essential to approach such market movements cautiously, it is worth considering the potential opportunities arising from this situation. Given the current uncertainty surrounding the USD, diversifying your currency portfolio by including CHF and other strengthening currencies against the dropping dollar might be prudent. Please note that the purpose of this idea is not to make predictions or provide financial advice but rather to highlight an emerging trend that could impact forex trading. It is crucial to conduct thorough research, analyze market conditions, and consult with your trusted financial advisors before making any investment decisions. In light of these recent developments, I encourage you to stay vigilant and closely monitor the ongoing market dynamics. By staying informed and adapting your strategies accordingly, you can position yourself to capitalize on the opportunities arising from currency fluctuations. Remember, the forex market is highly volatile, and success often lies in being well-informed and prepared. I urge you to exercise caution, maintain a disciplined approach, and consider the potential risks of trading decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
CoCos: Quirky yet intriguing ‘hybrid’ instruments with a twistThere are a variety of risks to consider when investing in AT1 Contingent Convertible bonds (affectionately known as ‘CoCos’). These financial instruments, issued by financial institutions, may appear peculiar on first inspection but, once you get to know these quirky financial instruments better, you will better appreciate their unique risk/return profile. CoCos stand out as hybrid instruments, blending the characteristics of bonds and equity. They possess a fascinating duality: on one hand, they behave like fixed income products, offering investors regular interest payments; on the other hand, they can convert into equity under specific predefined conditions or can be written down under specific circumstances. This unique combination allows CoCos to dance between the worlds of debt and equity. CoCos are high yield instruments, and this high yield comes from a variety of risk compensations. We focus here on three of them: conversion risk, extension risk and viability risk. Conversion risk: the dramatic metamorphosis One of the key risks associated with CoCos is conversion risk or write-down risk. These instruments typically have a predetermined conversion trigger, such as a decline in the issuer's capital ratio, like Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1), or a specific regulatory event. When the trigger is hit, the CoCos undergo a dramatic metamorphosis, transforming from debt into equity or can become virtually worthless. In the waterfall structure, they sit between equity and subordinated debt. Conversion risk is, therefore, higher than default risk on the subordinated bonds of the same issuer. That is already something! Extension risk: when time tests your patience Imagine waiting for a bus that keeps getting delayed, leaving you unsure of when it will finally arrive. That's the feeling of extension risk in the world of CoCos, since these instruments come with a feature that allows the issuer to extend the maturity date without a penalty (step-up). As an investor, this can make it challenging to predict the exact timing of cash flows, adding an element of uncertainty to your investment horizon. Rising interest rates can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they are typically good for the financial sector and, therefore, reduce the conversion risk. On the other hand, they can have a significant negative impact on CoCos, especially in terms of their call features. Unlike traditional bonds that often feature step-ups, which progressively increase the spreads over time in case the bonds are not called at the given call dates, CoCos lacks such provisions. This absence of step-ups makes it economically beneficial for the issuer not to call the CoCos bond early, particularly in a rising interest rate environment. By allowing the bond to remain outstanding, the issuer can take advantage of the higher prevailing interest rates and continue paying the existing coupon, potentially saving on borrowing costs. However, from an investor's perspective, this prolonged maturity can present challenges. As interest rates rise, the market value of fixed-rate instruments tends to decline. Investors may find themselves holding CoCos with coupons that are comparatively less attractive in the prevailing interest rate environment. Moreover, the extended maturity period can delay the return of principal, affecting investment liquidity and potentially tying up capital for a longer period than anticipated. To call a bond or not is the decision of the issuer. Besides economic arguments, reputational arguments also come into play. Some issuers, although it may be economically reasonable not to call, will not want to snub their investors base and prefer, for reputational matters, to call anyway. Quantifying the exact risk is not an exact science. Recently, all bonds that come at their first call dates have been called. Regulatory risk: the viability trigger As we have learned in the Credit Suisse case, this is another crucial aspect to consider. The viability trigger represents the point at which the issuer's financial health is deemed to be at risk by the regulator, even in cases where capital ratios like CET1 are well above their trigger levels. Hence, CoCos can also be triggered by regulatory intervention. If the viability trigger is activated, the CoCos might undergo conversion or be written off altogether. It is important to note that the ‘permanent write-down’ is unique to Swiss issuances. This risk factor underscores the importance of staying abreast of regulatory developments and their potential impact on the investment. As illustrated by the Credit Suisse case, the classic waterfall structure was not respected, wherein CoCos were written down to zero while keeping equity alive. The EU/UK regulators have been almost screaming that this is not possible under their framework. And indeed, the EU point of non-viability (PONV) powers are written into statutory law within the Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive (BRRD), that clearly stipulates that instruments can only be written down to zero if shareholders have been fully wiped out and, hence, respecting the bankruptcy waterfall. Note that in contrast to Switzerland, where it is relatively easy to use the emergency law and pass an ordinance (or add clarifications) over a weekend (as happened during the recent Credit Suisse rescue operation), the complexity of the EU, where all EU countries must agree (and in addition a valuation exercise must be carried out), makes this virtually impossible to do over a weekend or short periods of time. The CoCo coupon conundrum Given the assortment of risks CoCos bring to the table, it's no surprise that these quirky instruments tend to offer high coupons. Investors demand compensation for taking on the additional uncertainties associated with conversion risk, extension risk and regulatory risk. While these higher coupon rates can be alluring, it's essential to thoroughly assess the underlying risks and evaluate whether the potential rewards are worth the rollercoaster ride. CoCos offer a blend of fixed income stability with the tantalising potential for equity-like gains. Conversion risk, extension risk and regulatory risk are the hurdles that come with this unique territory. By diligently understanding these risks, CoCos are, perhaps, the quirky kid one starts to like. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
AMEX:DHY
by aneekaguptaWTE
CHF/ZAR - More pain for the rand t R22.00 - SHOCK WARNING Cup and Handle and a Falling Flag has formed on the daily with the Swiss Franc versus the South African Rand. There was a one month consolidation and retracement. And now it looks like the buying and demand is kicking in again for the CHF. We are looking at all yearly highs soon. 7>21>200 RSI=50 Target R22.00 QUICK STORY~! I was in Switzerland in February and just a three day stay at a basic hotel was R13,500. It's scary to think how depreciated the rand is to this currency and how expensive living day to day is in Switzerland. A simple Fondue meal with beer can cost up to R4,000. A simple tea at a restaurant can set you back R120.00. It is truly a beautiful country with the freshest air and amazing people with drive and ambition. But this is one country that is a privilege to go to if you're from South Africa. Hence, I really hope I am wrong and that this currency doesn't continue to depreciate the rand. Have you been to Switzerland and how was your experience?
Long
by Timonrosso
🔥 NEW: EURCHF 🔥 BIG PICTURE (1M) 🔥-SL @ 1.2066 🚫 SLO2 @ 1.1850 ⏳ SLO1 @ 1.1600 ⏳ TP4 @ 1.1475 (closing ALL Buy Orders) TP3 @ 1.1033 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 1.0755 (shaving 25%) TP1 @ 1.0333 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 0.9920 ⏳ BLO2 @ 0.9666 ⏳ WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
Joe G2H - Ending wedge on the EURCHF Daily chartTrade Idea: Buying EURCHF Reasoning: Ending wedge on the daily and lower end of a range. Entry Level: 0.9725 Take Profit Level: 0.9765 Stop Loss: 0.9706 Risk/Reward: 2.1/1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
✨ NZDCHF...UT ✨ Swing Trade ✨✨ NZDCHF...UT ✨ Swing Trade ✨ - SL @ 0.5300 🚫 BLO @ 0.54421 ⌛️ BSO @ 0.57441 ⌛️ TP1 @ 0.62380 TP2 @ 0.70565 TP3 @ 0.75736 Current Opportunity Our team foresees a notable downtrend retracement for DXY, leading to a bullish stance on NZDCHF. Our strategy involves partially reducing our position by 25% at the first and second take profits, ultimately closing the entire position upon reaching our third take profit. Big Picture Following the projected downward retracement, we anticipate DXY to sustain its upward momentum, which is expected to extend the bearish trend of NZDCHF in the long term. As we approach TP3, we will provide an update regarding a potential short position. Happy Trading!!
Long
by CashFalcon
UPDATE 2 🔥 REVENGE TRADE: CHFJPY 🔥 REVENGE LONG TERM SHORT 🔥Analysis shows that the downtrend's anchor has been broken. To begin, it is essential to recognize that the downtrend anchor is an important indicator of market trends. Its success reveals a bearish mood in the market and suggests that the current downtrend may continue. Regardless of the confirmation, investors should proceed with caution and carefully assess their investment plan. Second, this is one of the most volatile Exotic Pairs in the forex market. Over the next few days and weeks, I'll be keeping a close eye on price action to confirm the market's trajectory and assist you in making educated guesses. This is a HIGHLY VOLATILE PAIR, and it is highly recommended that you manage your holdings to ensure that your investment choices are aligned with your own financial goals and risk tolerance. I typically invest 2% to 3% of my total income, with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
🔥 REVENGE TRADE: CHFJPY ✨ SHORT TERM LONG 🔥TP @ 155.00 BLO @ 151.53 ADDITIONAL INFO: 00:00 Revenge Trading 01:12 Buy Order (aggressive) 02:04 Small Loss for a Big Win 02:48 I hate CHFJPY!!! Unfortunately, our previous short position was liquidated because I based my analysis on the Oanda, which had limited historical data for this pair. As a result of examining the FXCM chart, I've determined that there is more upside potential, so here is my revised assessment.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
🔥 NEW: CHFJPY ✨ BIG PICTURE SHORT 🔥-SL @ 158.45 🚫 SLO2 @ 157.33 ⏳ SLO1 @ 155.25 ⏳ TP1 @ 151.25 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 148.50 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 145.33 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 143.00 (shaving 25%) TP5 @ 138.50 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO @ 137.90 (15H) ⏳👈🏾 ADDITIONAL INFO: Unfortunately, our previous short position was "stopped out" because I based my analysis on my Oanda chart, which had limited historical data for this pair (not sure why). As a result of examining an FXCM chart (not my broker), I've determined that there is more upside potential, so here is my revised assessment.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
9