Watching GBPUSD to regain bearish momentumWe will be watching to see if GBPUSD can regain its bearish momentum before the Fed announces interest rates on Wed. Although the street does not anticipate any move by the Fed, they may give a hawkish tone and if so that should add fuel to the short side.
With that said we will be looking for a close below the short-term trendline on the hourly chart along with confluence from our price prediction algorithm. If we can get that setup prior to the Feds announcement we will be taking GBPUSD short while correlating it with GBPCHF to give us protection.
Swiss
CHF/JPY Long Term ShortBack at it again with a CHF/JPY Long Term Short. Fundametally a weak currrency, CHF has been fundamentally struggling and decreasing its strength consistently. Although next GDP data release should firmly show us where the currency is heading until then fundamentals will not cause major sentiment and bias change on the Franc. With the JPY not performing much better there are still many more fundamental changes coming thus giving JPY a higher chance of outperforming CHF on this trade. With the majority of Friday's (29/07/16) data predicted to be positive for the Yen we could possibly see it gaining strength over the Franc although, we do have Japans Rate Decision on the same day. Therefore, will play it safe and manage the trade as it progresses. Possibly, a slow progress on the pair but will be waiting on it.
USD/CHF Trendline Short SetupPrice has rejected the weekly trend-line with a hammer candle indicating a sell opportunity.
The Swiss has a safe haven status and as this week has a lot of event risk and non farms for the Dollar it is likely that investors will hedge the Swiss as a proxy for Gold against the upcoming risks associated to the Dollar.
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USD/CHF Trendline Break SellPrice has broken, re-tested and failed to re-enter the inner trend line. As we see often on a Monday price will recover to a key zone (blue box) before becoming exhausted and returning downwards.
FOMC will mean this pair will trade with higher volatility this week, especially given that the Swiss can be traded as a proxy for Gold. Trade with added caution this week.
Previous GBPCHF Short SetupAs promised here is the previous short setup for GBPCHF which included the Fibonacci Price level and the Fibonacci Time zone. As you can see this price & time action presented a perfect opportunity.
We will be watching GBPCHF to form a similar setup during the first week of March 2016 if the low set on 02/11/2016 holds.
Look For Opportunity To Short GBPCHFWe will be looking for an opportunity to Short GBPCHF on a bounce. The trend has been to the downside since mid-November 2015. If the recent low set on 02/11/2016 holds and a bounce drives price up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in conjunction with the 25% or 50% Fibonacci time zone we could see a solid short setup.
We will link research of a recent GBPCHF move which presented a solid short off the 38.2% Fibonacci price level and 25% Fibonacci time zone shortly. This recent move was timed perfectly, we may see another in the near future, some time around the first week of March.
Time is just as important as price action! Again the low set on 02/11/2016 must hold in-order for this forecast to remain valid.