FXCM un-franc-ed? Maybe a little pullback, but watch this.... breakout will be big. Today's 50% candle is very convincing...
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Let's see how the restructuring plays out, its not official yet but rumors.
Swiss
USDCHF approaching extremely important resistance area.Any break above the 13 year resistance line, and it'd be very hard to predict where the rally will end.
In any case, I'd expect the price to hit the resistance areas, consolidate and continue up as Jordan considers a response to increased ECB action. I expect that he will deepen negative interest rates to ward off EUR/CHF depreciation. The Swiss economy is faltering and action needs to be taken.
EURCHF Forming A Solid ABCD PatternThis pair is forming a very solid ABCD pattern as point C was put in place very decisively. The chart is showing the ABCD pattern overlaid with a Fibonacci Extension. Our projection is for this pair to make a run towards the 61.8% to 76.4% Fib extensions but we wouldn't be surprised if it made a run to the 100% level as the pullback was shallow. Pullbacks that do not retrace the entire 61.8% show that buyers are eager to resume the uptrend. As you can see the C retracement was only 56.9%. As long as the bulls stay in the Euro camp our projection could be met but as we all know the Euro has been in a long-term bear trend.
Set your stops just below point A, we will be willing to risk down to the 1.06900 level as our algorithm is calculating 90% odds of a run higher on the daily chart. www.unique4xpro.com
3 Step Scalp MACD Trade for USDCHFOne to watch for a 3 Step Scalp MACD trade is USDCHF. We traded it nicely last nice from the short side and as you can see it came in more overnight. With the horrible wage growth reported from the U.S. the dollar could be in for some trouble throughout today. Don't be afraid to take a long scalp if the conditions present themselves, just be aware that sellers may have the upper hand on this Friday.
3 Step Scalp MACD trading strategy listed below:
Bullish:
1) Look for a trend to develop to the upside in conjunction with a bullish MACD.
2) Wait for a close below the EMA in conjunction with a bullish MACD.
3) After a close back above the EMA in conjunction with a bullish MACD take a long position.
Bearish:
1) Look for a trend to develop to the downside in conjunction with a bearish MACD.
2) Wait for a close above the EMA in conjunction with a bearish MACD.
3) After a close back below the EMA in conjunction with a bearish MACD take a short position.
*Stops should be placed no more than the most recent swing high.
**MACD = Standard settings or 20,40,9 which should give you more trades.
***EMA = 9 period to the close.
****If MACD stops trending and/or the lines have touched any possible trade is null and void.
CHF/JPY: So many confluences for going short!Confluences:
1/ with the recent formed downtrend
2/ Broke TL + retest
3/ Tested the 130.000 weekly resistance
4/ Bounced of the 50% fib.
5/ high test, followed by inside bar set up, followed by another high test
6/ 50 & 60 EMA's bounce
AUD/CHF short set-upThe pair has broken out its range + channel.
Confluences:
1/ Downtrend
2/ Retest of 0.71 ( support turned into resistance )
3/ Retest of the broken channel
4/ Long legged doji, can also be looked at as a high test
GBP/CHF LONG BIASAS THE GBP CONTINUES ITS BULLISH MOMENTUM ACROSS THE BOARD IT COULD PROVIDE A NICE LONG OPPORTUNITY ON THIS PAIR.
WE HAVE MADE 2 HIGHER LOWS AND RECENTLY SNEAKED IN A HIGHER HIGH. ALTHOUGH WE WASNT ABLE TO GET A CLEAN BREAK ABOVE THAT RESISTANCE IT COULD BE A GOOD SIGN OF THINGS TO COME. I AM NOW MONITORING P.A CLOSELY FOR A LONG SETUP. I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA AROUND 1.4470 WHERE WE FIND THE 50% FIB LEVEL ALONG WITH THE ASCENDING TRENDLINE. IF PRICE HIT THIS ZONE WE COULD ALSO TAKE IT AS A RETEST OF THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE THAT WAS RECENTLY BROKEN MEANING SOME GREAT CONFLUENCES TO TAKE THE LONG IF WE GET THE RIGHT P.A.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL HIGHER HIGH TO BE MADE AT AROUND 1.4960. ONE TO WATCH HERE
A long term trade that will 100% pay off. GuaranteedAs Swiss franc is exposed to events in Europe (high correlation to EUR) plus negative interest rate that will likely increase, ie becoming more expensive to store funds in CHF, Swiss banks will likely become less and less of a safe haven as other currencies become more attractive or even perhaps Gold. Also, don't forget with new tax and bank secrecy laws, Switzerland is becoming less and less a destination for offshore funds. In any case, Switzerland has a manufacturing sector to protect and preventing the CHF to increase further will be a job for the SNB.
On the other hands, the US economy is shaking off the winter blues and looks to increase rate in the next six months perhaps making it a destination for global funds as a carry trade.
EUR/CHF GARTLEY PATTERN - COMPLETION AT 1.024EUR/CHF - H4 Chart - Gartley Pattern
Here on the H4 chart of EUR/CHF we have a nice Gartley Pattern setup.
With a deep D leg completion giving us nice risk reward and a strong reversal zone.
We must see a completion at D leg before any long entry is triggered.
- SL must go below X
- Target 1 at 38.2% retracement
- Target 2 at 61.8% retracement
Good luck.
USD/CHF at a critical pointAfter rising relentlessly for 5 consecutive days, Dollar bulls faced stiff resistance today. The negative divergence in RSI has been indicative of an impending short term reversal which would push the prices back into the channel and this materialized today.
Now the price is sitting on the lower boundary of the channel and a strong support zone. If the bulls fail to put themselves together at this point, the channel will break to the downside and this will most probably commence a selling pressure that will push the price into much lower levels.
USDCHF volatility signifies a serious tipping pointIn the last 2 months it was a real rollercoaster for USDCHF. The volatility is a sign of the very important breakpoint with serious monetary consequences. I bet US dollar will "win this currency war" and drop significantly from here, letting USDCHF to reach 0.70 again in coming years.
Long live the... Dollar?Back in July 2014, price broke out of a falling wedge pattern, found resistance at the 1.000 level and following the unpegging of the Swiss Franc, retested the backside of the wedge this January. Since this event market sentiment on the dollar has been incredibly bullish, pushing price through the parity resistance within the last week.
It has since been failing to break back past this new found resistance, and on the weekly chart a Golden Cross looks set to take place, giving further catalyst for bullish continuation.
If sentiment for the dollar continues as it is, we could expect a nice long opportunity at this point towards the 0.382 retracement level, which also happens to lay just below the 1.15 resistance level. A stop loss just below parity here would give you an excellent 10:1 Reward:Risk ratio!
For those of you feeling particularly ambitious, the 0.618 retracement level happens to lay on the 1.4000 Monthly support. Good luck!
SUI30 The Swiss stock market ending a nice impulse waveI am a firm believer stock markets are patterned in shape ( Elliot wave ) and cyclical ( Martin Armstrong works ). Because labeling waves is subject to human nature, using the Elliot wave principle to trade is tricky at best. Nevertheless, sometime when you see a pattern you just have to accept what is in front of your eyes and right now the SUI30 appears to be ending an impulse wave that started at the March 09 low. I am showing you being wave C of a large expanded flat but it is one count out of many possible scenarios and I don't really care about the larger picture. The bottom line is SUI30 is on its way higher to end a pattern that has the potential to reach 10250-10400 where we have two targets: Wave C would equal wave A and wave (B) of my potential flat would equal 1.382 times wave (A). Once there, I would expect the market to roll over and start a decline that has the potential to be dramatic.
Golide is giving the love (with some help from her friends)First target is hit (Thanks Swiss National Bank). We will move stops up to just under our entry. The trade is at no risk and now we will sit on our hands and see how far she can go, As we mentioned this is a weekly setup so we expect a good size move. However, what we saw from the Swiss last night can be a game changer. USE STOPS AND DON'T BE A HERO. You job is to stay in the game.
Can't go wrong buying EUR/CHF at current levelRemember the Swiss National bank is committed to defending the currency at 1.20 with "determination".
It may possible they are actively intervening at this point.
1.20 is the floor so buying now offer a great risk/reward opportunity. Unlikely to come again for a while.
On the technical side, each lower platau of the 20 day MA is met with a higher and price spike afterwards.
The probability of profiting is such a shoe-in that your broker does not want you to buy in. That's why the overnight premium is unfairly high and the spread is high too.
Swiss gold referendum - A bear trap ???Gold (01.12.2014) reverse from $1207 mark which we mention as first resistance for bulls. However fall from mention level should taken as correction or profit booking but swiss gold referendum added more fuel & created panic selling.
Now gold is trading around $1275 & we have witness a sharp bounce from recent low $1142 made just after a NO answer from swiss gold referendum. The bounce producing a major among trader that how actually this NO going to react. Here is the most possible answer.
Swiss gold referendum YES would force swiss banks to buy tonnes of gold to increase the gold holding from 8% to 20% but a NO answer is actually not going to change anything for gold normal trading. The panic selling come in first trading session was not supported by volume (see chart), while the NO answer avoided the immediate buying from swiss banks but now it is mandate for central bank to buy gold from open market or off market.
Coming to technical picture, gold made a low of $1142 & now trading above $1169 which represent the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of last upside move till $1207. A stability above this mark with volume & a very positive divergence on day chart suggest that gold already digested swiss result & a technical upside move will continue for coming trading session. A break above $1207 will provide more strength & we may witness a quick move towards $1247.
MCX GOLD traded lower with spot gold however the correction more deeper due to removal of 80:20 rule by indian government & low volume. Still on technical front gold was able sustain above previous low. This particular move forming a double bottom pattern which is well supported by positive divergence as shown in the chart. Channel resistance situated around 26780 & if this is broken we may witness a sharp move 26900 & more.
Swiss gold referendum could prove a big bear trap if above technical picture stay alive.
Best of luck
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
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Accumulation Forming on AUDCHFPrice on AUDCHF has been in a tight range since July 4, which I'm interpreting as an accumulation pattern -- i.e. buyers stepping in and quietly building their position. Just below this accumulation zone, which happens to coincide with a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to swing high, are the 50 SMA and 200 EMA. As such, I think there are enough signs needed to put on a trade. The biggest issue is that the trade probably should have been placed yesterday, and the opportunity may have passed us.
In any event, I put my order to go long at 8356, with my stop at 8306 and my target profit at 8506. I'm risking 50 to gain 150, which gives me a reward/risk of exactly 3.
www.informedtrades.com
EURCHF DownTrend Deep Pullback SHORT1. moving averages are 20,50,100,200 and the 200 period MA is above all, 100, is above all except 200. 50 period MA is higher than 20 period Moving Average. Along with Lower Lows and Lower Highs in a downtrend this says the pair -EUR/CHF has been in a down trend.
2. Stochastics are oversold and losing momentum.
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