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CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a lack of meaningful developments regarding economic data. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus - most notably many countries in Europe. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve.
by thunderpips
CHF - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: Outlined in Switzerland's National Bank Act, the objective of the SNB is to ensure pricestability and, in so doing, to take due account of economic developments. The SNB equates price stability with a rise in consumer prices of less than 2% per annum. The SNB uses medium-term inflation forecasts as the main indicator for monetary policy decisions. As of March, inflation in Switzerland stands at -0.2% Y/Y. Inflation in Switzerland has remained subdued since 2008. Since then, inflation has ranged between a peak of 1.4% in 2010 and a trough of -1.4% in 2015. Situation: As inflation in Switzerland remains stubbornly low,the SNB Policy Rate is likely to remain as the worlds lowest interest rate at just -0.75%for the foreseeable future. At their March meeting, the SNB kept rates unchanged, and maintained their view on CHF as "highly valued." Additionally, the SNB reiterated that they are prepared to step up FX intervention as necessary.
by thunderpips
2
CHF - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, it's impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy in the near future, given their overall neutral tone and a lack of meaningful developments regarding economic data. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out. Of course, risks still remains and many countries are now battling third waves of the virus - most notably many countries in Europe. As such, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and notable risks to the overall risk outlook; although, as a whole, it is improving.
by thunderpips
GBPCHF: Be Prepared For The Next Swing Move GBPCHF is currently consolidating in a local horizontal trading range. Taking into consideration that the pair is trading in a long term bullish trend, chances are high that at some moment the market will start growing again. To catch the next wave, wait for a breakout of the underlined horizontal resistance. It will be your trigger to catch a trend following trade. Next goal will be 1.315 Please, support my work with like and comment!
Long
by VasilyTrader
3
CHF: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 25 – The SNB left its Policy Rate unchanged at -0.75%. The central bank maintained its view of CHF as “highly valued” and reiterated that hey are prepared to step up FX intervention if necessary. March 3 – CPI for February printed at 0.2% M/M (prior 0.1%) and -0.5% Y/Y, unchanged from January. February 8 – The Unemployment Rate for January increased to 3.5% from a prior of 3.4%. December 1 – GDP for Q3 printed at 7.2% Q/Q and -1.6% Y/Y. Alongside exceeding all expectations, both prints were also strong improvements from Q2’s -7.3% Q/Q and 7.8% Y/Y. Future Sentiment Shifts: The outlook for CHF remains closely tied to the market’s risk tone and outlook surrounding the coronavirus. Since peaking in late March of 202, CHF has pulled off if it’s best levels as markets calmed and ceased selling off aggressively. However, with many notable countries experiencing second waves of the coronavirus, risks still remain. Going forward, price action in CHF will remain closely correlated to the market’s risk tone. Expect renewed strength in the currency if second waves continue to grow, but ongoing weakness if countries can contain isolated incidents and economies remain on track to reach some form of normalcy. Of course, in the medium to long term, the latter remains the market’s base case scenario with the rollout of coronavirus vaccines in many countries now taking place. Primary Drivers: Swiss National Bank – Swiss monetary policy, or the market’s outlook for monetary policy rarely proves market moving. Instead, the primary influence from Switzerland’s central bank comes from their constant interference with exchange rates as they continue to actively weaken CHF when they consider the currency to be highly valued. Risk tone – As a safe haven currency, CHF is strongly correlated with the market’s risk tone, strengthening in risk off environments and weakening in risk on environments.
by thunderpips
4
CHF - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, it's impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy in the near future, given their overall neutral tone and a lack of meaningful developments regarding economic data. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out. Of course, risks still remains and many countries are still battling second waves of the virus. As such, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and notable risks to the overall risk outlook; although, as a whole, it is improving.
by thunderpips
2
Swissborg $CHSB / USDI've been a fan of this project for some time... buying at under $0.01 over a year back! They've created a good #yield revenue for their customers and are very transparent and open to the public about their direction Looks like a clean step-like, parabolic curve for me. I'm hoping for another good move up into the $3.60 to $4.20 range where I'll be unloading some of this bag for a #dollar and a #Bitcoin split. Trade at your own risk and good fortune :)
CLong
by Free_Alfalfa
6
Pound Swiss strength continuesAs discussed on last nights FX Market scan in Market Mentor: After a big move out of the BoE interest rate decision GBPCHF looks to be continuing the uptrend. See you on the next call next Monday at 5 pm AEST time Cheers Dale DISCLAIMER: Just ideas, no crystal ball, NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation
Long
by OrganicFX