2 FX Shorts with excellent oddsStarting with the pair which makes no sense at current levels, considering the most meager of rate differentials at +2.5% , were it not for the SNB's deranged policy of "supporting the Swiss Franc as an inflation fighting measure" (while Swiss inflation is barely holding at 2%!) and with the Swiss Franc already at nose-bleed levels.
CHFJYP; a 50 year SHORT in the making;
The main chart is the MXNJPY - SHORT , also the premier carry-trade - while equities are trying to cling to the remnants of an already burst bubble.
While the Bank of Mexico has increased the rate differential (versus the static Yen) two-fold, in short order, that rate differential remained the same since 03/2023 while this pair continued on it's upward trajectory an additional 16%, incidentally inline with the SP500's identical increase during the same period;
Both of these pairs are at multi-year technical confluences, both pressing against significant resistance and showing distinct patterns of reversal. SHORT & SHORT
Swissfranc
USDCHF Stuck within the 1D MA50 - MA100. Break-out trade.The USDCHF pair is pulling back after making nearly a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and hit last hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Today it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, so the closing of the 1D candle either way will most likely decide the next trend.
Above the 1D MA50, we will buy, targeting 0.94000 (Channel Up Higher High and Resistance 2). Below the 1D MA100, we will quick sell, targeting 0.88000 (Channel Up bottom).
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CADCHF: Pullback From Key Level 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF is taking off from a solid horizontal daily support.
The price formed a double bottom formation on that on an hourly time frame.
Feels like the market is oversold and it is the moment for correction.
Bullish continuation is expected to 0.6535 / 0.6550
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USDCHF - 2 SCENARIOS 📉📈Hello Traders !
We Have 2 Scenarios on USDCHF:
Bullish Scenario📈
If The Price Breaks and Closes Above Resistance Level (0.90893 - 0.90135) !
We Will See a Bullish Move📈
TARGET: 0.92070🎯
Bearish Scenario📉
If The Market Breaks The Support Level (0.89868 - 0.90135) and Closes Below That
I Will Sell on Retest...
TARGET: 0.88780🎯
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EURCHF: Strong Bearish Confirmation Explained 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF is retesting a recently broken horizontal structure.
The price formed a double top, approaching that on an hourly time frame.
Its neckline breakout is a strong bearish confirmation.
A bearish move is now expected to 0.9498 / 0.9478
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EURCHF: Important Bearish Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇭
With one single bearish candle, EURCHF successfully violated 2
important daily structures: a horizontal support and a rising trend line.
The broken structures compose an expanding sell zone now.
I will anticipate a bearish movement from that at least to 0.946
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CHFJPY: Top-Down Analysis & Pullback 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY reached a solid horizontal daily support.
After its test, the pair started to consolidate on an hourly time frame
within a narrow horizontal range.
The support of the range was broken then.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers
and it signifies a highly probable pullback.
Target - 165.63
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CHFJPY New bullish leg underwayCHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up, which made on October 3rd the latest Higher Lon on the 1day MA100.
The price is already near Resistance A (166.550) and the 1day RSI bullish above the 60.00 level.
Buy and target 172.000 (less than the previous -9.60% rise).
Previous chart:
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NZDCHF - Bearish Double TOP 📉Hello Traders !
On Friday 29 Sep, The NZDCHF Price Reached a Supply Zone (0.54738 - 0.55028)
Currently, The Price Formed a Double Top Pattern.
The Neckline is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 0.52950🎯
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EURCHF Long term downtrend but this Support is holding.EURCHF is trading inside a Channel Down since January and recently priced the latest Lower High.
We approach Support (1) which is a level that has held since July 27th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as a (1d) candle doesn't close under Support (1).
2. Sell if it closes under it.
Targets:
1. 0.96500 (top of Channel Down).
2. 0.93800 (-3.30% decline from the top, as all the bearish legs of the Channel Down have done so far).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is under a Sell Cross. This favors the bearish trend, this is why the stop loss conditions should be so strict (candle closing under Support 1).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
AUDCHF - Bearish Move 📉
Hello Traders !
On 29 Friday September, The AUDCHF Price Reached A Resistance Level (0.59166 - 0.59294).
Currently, The Price Failed To Create a New Higher High.
The Last Higher High is Broken (Break of Structure).
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
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TARGET: 0.57420🎯
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CADCHF - Bearish Move 📉
Hi Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The CADCHF Price Reached A Strong Resistance Level (0.68135 - 0.68320).
Currently, The Price Failed To Create a New Higher High.
The Last Higher High is Broken (Break of Structure).
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
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TARGET: 0.66300🎯
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CADCHF - Break of Structure 📉Hello Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The CADCHF Price Reached A Strong Resistance Level (0.68135 - 0.68320).
Currently, The Price Failed To Create a New Higher High.
The Last Higher High is Broken (Break of Structure).
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 0.66300🎯
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NZDCHF Sell near the 1D MA200The NZDCHF pair has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since the March 28 2022 High. As you can see the two so far corrective waves have followed a similar Lower Lows structure.
The price is currently on the bullish leg to the Lower Highs trend-line, supported by both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D MACD Bearish Cross that is about to be completed calls for a sell preparation, as every Bearish Cross above the 0.0 level since March 2022 has been a sell signal. The closer the price gets to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the more efficient the sell entry will be. We will target a projected 1D MA50 contact at 0.53500.
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USDCHF - Price can bounce up from support line and exit of wedgeHi guys, this is my overview for USDCHF, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to grow inside rising channel, where it rose to $0.9215 resistance level, breaking $0.9100 level.
But then price at once bounced down and fell to $0.9100, which coincided with resistance zone, exiting from channel.
After this, Swiss Franc started to trades in wedge, in which it first rose to resistance level and even entered to $0.9215 - 0.9235 resistance area.
But soon price made a strong downward impulse to support line of wedge, thereby breaking $0.9215 and $0.9100 levels.
Now I think Swiss Franc can make correction to support line and then bounce up to $0.9100 level, exiting from wedge.
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GBPCHF: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF is testing a wide daily horizontal demand zone.
To buy that with a confirmation, pay attention to a double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame.
1.11 is its neckline.
We need a 4H candle close above that to confirm the strength of the buyers.
Buy aggressively or on a retest, then.
Target will be 1.1135
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CADCHF Pure Resistance - Support trade.The CADCHF pair is trading within a 5-month Rectangle pattern. Following the rejection on the 0.68310 Resistance and establishing the price action below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it should begin the final bearish phase towards the 0.64600 Support. The 1D MA50 is in between but after the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross, it shouldn't hold. Our target is 0.64800.
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EURCHF Bearish leg of Channel Down has started.EURCHF is trading inside a Channel Down that priced the latest Lower High at 0.969650 (Resistance A).
That is confirmed by the Sell Cross formation on October 5th, the highest formed since January 31st.
Sell and target 0.94100 (Support A), even though we can decline a little more (-3.25% was the previous bearish leg).
Previous chart:
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AUDCHF - Break of Structure 📉Hello Traders!
On 29 Friday September, The AUDCHF Price Reached A Resistance Level (0.59166 - 0.59294).
Currently, The Price Failed To Create a New Higher High.
The Last Higher High is Broken (Break of Structure).
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 0.56750🎯
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AUDCHF: Important Breakout & Very Bearish Pattern 🇦🇺🇨🇭
Take a look at a strong rejection from a key horizontal daily resistance on AUDCHF.
After a test of 0.5925 level the market dropped and violated a support line of a rising parallel channel.
Taking into consideration that the pair is trading in a long term bearish trend,
probabilities are high that the market will drop now.
Goals: 0.577 / 0.567
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HelenP. I Swiss Franc can rebound from trend line and start riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Swiss Franc analytics. A short time ago price traded near the 0.8955 support level, which coincide with the support zone, but later it fell below this level to the trend line, where at once rebounded and started to grow. Price rose to 0.9210 resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, but at once rebounded down and fell until to trend line. Swiss Franc some time traded near this line and then continued to move up to the 0.9210 resistance level. After the price reached this level, CHF broke it a few times and traded in the resistance zone, but later price started to decline and in a short time Swiss Franc declined below this level, thereby breaking it again. At the moment CHF trades near the trend line and for my mind, it can fall to this line and then rebound up to the 0.9210 resistance level. After this, the Swiss Franc can break this level, make a retest, and then continue to move up. Therefore I set two targets, the first target at the 0.9210 resistance level and the second - at the 0.9280 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
AUDCHF: Reversing near the top of the Channel Down.AUDCHF may have crossed over the 1W MA100 but eventually failed, also on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, and appears to be reversing. The technical outlook on the 1D time-frame is neutral (RSI = 55.574, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 42.778), so it is a valid sell entry. On top of that, every LH inside this 15 month Channel Down (exception Jan 23rd 2023) has been around the 0.5 Fibonacci level. All this while the 1D MACD is close to a Bearish Cross formation. Sell and target the bottom of the Channel Down over the -0.382 Fib (TP = 0.54500).
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