USDCHF BuyUS Dollar VS Swiss Franc is in a Bullish trend as US dollar has gained power and swiss franc price declined we are expecting a rally upwards in USDCHF pair the confluence is price is making higher highs and higher lows on H1 time frame and price is moving in a wedge pattern which make price confluence as bullish so we bullish over gold as currency strength also powers up our anylisis
Swissfranc
CHFJPY: Technically topped. Short opportunity.CHFJPY is on bullish 1D technicals (RSI = 59.579, MACD = 1.000, ADX = 53.750) but for the past 2 days have deen declining. This suggests that the top is has been priced and a technical pullback is to follow. The 1D MACD is on the verge of a Bearish Cross. All previous uptrend corrections hit or came close ot the 0.618 Fib. Consequently, we turn bearish on the short term (TP = 170.000).
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USDCHF is rising but it's not late to buy.USDCHF has been on a very strong 2 week rise on Support A and has turned the 1day MA50 into Support. Until that breaks, we expect the bullish trend to continue.
Technically this is an emerging Channel Up that looks very much like the January rebound on Support A, which also consolidated after a nearly +3.00% rise and then moved to a +4.78% rise before it pulled back.
Buy and target 0.87900 (+4.78%), which will approach the 1day MA200.
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EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Seeking dips on GBP/CHFA bullish trend has developed on the daily chart. Prices have pulled back lower, yet support was found at the 50 retracement level and the cross now trades back above the 200-day MA.
A bullish divergence has formed on the 4-hout chart, and price action appears to be corrective on this timeframe. Also note that the 2-year spread between GB-CH yields ahead of prices to suggest upwards pressure could be building on GBP/CHF.
Given the bullish structure of the daily timeframe, pullbacks towards the monthly pivot point could be appealing for bullish setups, in anticipation of a move up to 1.14.
AUDCHF Trade this rejection or break-outThe AUDCHF pair is now on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) having rebounding on the 1-year Support Zone. Even though the multi-year pattern is a Channel Down, we are low enough historically, having reached levels not seen since March 16 2020, that we may have to start considering a long-term reversal.
As such, our trading plan is focused on a potential rejection or bullish break-out. Short near the top of the Channel Down for a potential Lower Highs trend-line rejection and target 0.56000 (Support Zone). If however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, take the loss on the short and buy, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.63000.
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FULL EURCHF ANALYSISHello my wonderful community !
I’m back again
I really appreciate you guys for reviewing my charts
Kindly like and comment on how you feel the market will go , I’m open to learn and communicate with other hardworking traders on here.
The colors for each line/zone
Monthly - Yellow
Weekly - Orange
Daily - Green
4H - Red
1H - Purple
My Monthly chart view:
Ever since 2019, price has been in a downtrend by making Lower highs and Lower lows.
Price keeps breaking major Support areas and turning them to dynamic resisitance areas and respects the EMA 14 anytime it makes a correction.
From 2022 to mid 2024 , Take note as price is in a range and respecting the channel constructed between the Monthly Yellow lines.
My Weekly chart view:
Going into the weekly TimeFrame, it is truly clear that price entered a range from 2022 until now.
My Daily chart view:
Price is in a range like I said earlier as this is due to the correction observed in the bigger timeframe
My 4H chart view:
As we move into the smaller timeframe of the 4H period, the market seems to be clearer
So I’ll go further and look for buy Setups as Price currently approached an Area of Demand (this area also serves as a major support zone and has been respected multiple times over the years )and bulls seems to be coming in strong with rising momentum.
To play safe i feel i can capture a buy setup as price approaches the Demand zone after the break of the EMA 50 by the bulls and the the EMA 14 crossing over it also
Take note of the MACD marked with red diagonal line as it is also a confluence I’m using to put the odds in my favor.
My 1H chart view:
On the hourly and anything below this timeframe , I can choose to capitalize by scalping and looking for entries that is validated by my own trading style , I’m also going to use the Fibonacci tool to help my entry .
I will be back to review this trade and see how things go
Avoid entry of any trade if they will be any major news that will affect price.
USDCHF Great long-term bottom buy opportunity.The USDCHF pair is trading considerably below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 04 2024, as it was on a major 5-month Bearish Leg following the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) peak and rejection on May 01.
The 1D MACD however has formed its 2nd straight Bullish Cross and last time that took place was on January 04 2024, right after the pair's bottom from the 2023 Bearish Leg.
As a result, we treat the current levels as the most optimal long-term buy opportunity for the year, targeting again a potential 1W MA200 contact at 0.90500.
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CHFJPY Sell-off to be extended.The CHFJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 11 High and has currently already started the new Bearish Leg, having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Until it does, the trend will remain bearish.
This Leg targets the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and our Target is 161.500. We will swift to buying again after the CCI prints two straight Higher Lows, similar to August 05 and April 02, but we will update when the time comes.
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EURCHF Sell signal on the 1D MA200 rejection.The EURCHF pair gave us a great buy-low-sell-high double trading opportunity last time we gave a call on it (June 28, see chart below) as not only did it initially rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, but straight after it dropped to the 0.618, reaching our 0.95500 Target:
The sell-off was in fact that aggressive that it reached as low as the bottom of the 2-year Channel Down, making a new Lower Low. The instant rise and rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) confirms bearish extension bias similar to the June 22 2023 rejection.
We remain bearish on this pair, targeting 0.926500 and then after a new bounce, make a final sell for a new Lower Low.
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Why is the Swiss Franc Defying the Odds?In a global economy where central banks are leaning towards softer monetary policies, the Swiss Franc is charting its own course—strengthening against the odds. But what forces are truly at play here? Is it merely the cautious whispers of the Swiss National Bank, or is there a deeper undercurrent, tied to inflation expectations and global safe-haven flows? As we peel back the layers, we uncover a narrative that challenges conventional wisdom. Discover the intricate dynamics that could redefine how we perceive currency resilience in today's volatile market landscape.
The franc's unexpected strength has sparked a flurry of theories. Some point to the SNB's potential reluctance to cut interest rates as aggressively as its peers. Others suggest that the widening gap between Swiss and global inflation expectations could be fueling the franc's appreciation. Yet, the franc's safe-haven status and its role in carry trades add another layer of complexity to this puzzle.
The EUR/CHF currency pair, a barometer of the Eurozone and Switzerland's economic health, is particularly sensitive to the franc's strength. As the franc appreciates, it can impact trade balances, inflation, and overall economic competitiveness.
As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, the enigma of the Swiss franc's resilience persists. Is this a temporary anomaly, or a harbinger of a new era in international finance? Only time will tell.
USD/CHF: Jordan’s Final Moves as SNB Chief Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is forecast to show a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, down from 1.3% in July. On a month-over-month basis, CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, rebounding from the prior month’s 0.2% decline.
The figures, due on Tuesday, come as Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan recently acknowledged the challenges posed by the strong Swiss franc on the nation’s industry.
Speculation is mounting over whether the central bank will respond with a 50-basis-point rate cut in September or intervene in the currency markets to ease pressures.
Bear in mind, Jordan, who has steered the SNB for over a decade, will step down at the end of September 2024, marking the end of an era for Swiss monetary policy.
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke the August low last week. The near-term resistance is possibly around 0.8590,
USDCHF - Short Trade IdeaThis a short trade idea I have for the USDCHF.
It is pretty straight-forward. Trade back into a Weekly iFVG and SIBI then move lower from there. First target is the immediate swing low, and the second target is the older low to the left. Entry somewhere in the gap, and stoploss above the high that entered the previous SIBI.
Sometimes I feel as though I should make my analysis more complicated so it can get featured, but truth be told, there is nothing useful about having a complicated analysis. In terms of technical analysis, this is as accurate and simple as it gets. And usually if a trade is wrong, there is unanticipated news or the tides have turned and a trade in the opposite direction is warranted.
- R2F
NZDCHF Short-term buy on this Channel Up.The NZDCHF pair has been trading within a short-term Channel Up and yesterday hit its bottom, technically pricing the new Higher Low. Being around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) currently, we expect this to be the start of the new Bullish Leg.
The previous two rose by +2.63% and +2.19% respectively so we expect the current one to be at least another +2.19% from the Higher Low. As a result our short-term Target is 0.53100.
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CADCHF Strong buy signalThe CADCHF pair offered us an excellent sell signal last time we looked into it (July 02, see chart below) as trading within a Channel Down pattern, it was rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and hit our 0.63100 Target:
The Channel Down priced its new Lower Low, even broke momentarily below its bottom aggressively, and now seems to have recovered. The recent pull-back offers a good opportunity to enter this confirmed uptrend, which is technically the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Down.
Our Target is 0.65000, firmly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Lower High of the Channel, which is where both Lower Highs so far have been priced.
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USDCHF Strong long-term bullish wave expected.The USDCHF pair followed almost perfectly our projected course last time we made an analysis on it (June 20, see chart below), as after a 1.5 Fibonacci rebound, it resumed the downtrend and hit our 0.8700 Target:
Having completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, on the same level as the January 04 2024 one, we view the recent rebound as the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As you can see, we've been basically within a wide but sideways structure for more than one year and the symmetry between the October - December 2023 Leg is very high with May - August 2024. Even the 1D MACD patterns are very similar.
As a result, we turn bullish on USDCHF again on a 0.9100 Target, just below the 1W MA200, which is the technical long-term Resistance.
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USDCHF Loong!This price has been forming a falling flag for the past few weeks, which IMO is always a strong sentiment for a bullish market. After completing the pattern and liquidity grab, I do anticipate that the price might retest the upper trend line of the pattern.
Entry point at 0.868, SL at 0.855 and TP at 0.894
Remember, only risk 1-2% of your account.