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Swissfranc

GBP CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. At their August meeting, the BoE confirmed this bleak outlook by forecasting the UK economy to fall into recession by 4Q22 and expects the recession to last for five quarters. Even though the bank followed through with a 50bsp hike, it wasn’t enough to offset the recession forecasts. With inflation expected to reach close to 13%, the bank is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they are forced to keep hiking rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so, they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though Sterling is still fairly close to recent lows (at the index level), the recent bounce was enough to short into, and we saw sizeable downside following the BoE decision. It seems unlikely that the post-BoE price action reflects a market that has already priced in a 5-quarter recession, so we expect sentiment to remain bearish on Sterling for now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With a recession now the base assumption, any incoming news that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger some relief. The UK is facing a huge cost-of-living squeeze, which means lower-than-expected inflation could counterintuitively be a positive driver (as lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. Any overly hawkish fiscal promises from PM candidates which eases recession fears could be a positive trigger for Sterling. Any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI could trigger bearish reactions. Politicsremain a focus, where any attempts by a new PM in the weeks or months ahead to call for a snap election should cause unnecessary uncertainty and could trigger GBP downside. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. Any overly dovish fiscal promises from PM candidates that increase recession fears could be a negative trigger for Sterling Any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains bleak, especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. The post-BoE price action was big, but not big enough for a market that has priced in a deep recession, which means we would expect sentiment to remain soft on Sterling after the most recent BoE meeting, but incoming data this week could trigger short-term sentiment reactions as always. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Wednesday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
2
GBP CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. At their August meeting, the BoE confirmed this bleak outlook by forecasting the UK economy to fall into recession by 4Q22 and expects the recession to last for five quarters. Even though the bank followed through with a 50bsp hike, it wasn’t enough to offset the recession forecasts. With inflation expected to reach close to 13%, the bank is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they are forced to keep hiking rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so, they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though Sterling is still fairly close to recent lows (at the index level), the recent bounce was enough to short into, and we saw sizeable downside following the BoE decision. It seems unlikely that the post-BoE price action reflects a market that has already priced in a 5-quarter recession, so we expect sentiment to remain bearish on Sterling for now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With a recession now the base assumption, any incoming news that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger some relief. The UK is facing a huge cost-of-living squeeze, which means lower-than-expected inflation could counterintuitively be a positive driver (as lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. Any overly hawkish fiscal promises from PM candidates which eases recession fears could be a positive trigger for Sterling. Any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI could trigger bearish reactions. Politicsremain a focus, where any attempts by a new PM in the weeks or months ahead to call for a snap election should cause unnecessary uncertainty and could trigger GBP downside. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. Any overly dovish fiscal promises from PM candidates that increase recession fears could be a negative trigger for Sterling Any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains bleak, especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. The post-BoE price action was big, but not big enough for a market that has priced in a deep recession, which means we would expect sentiment to remain soft on Sterling after the most recent BoE meeting, but incoming data this week could trigger short-term sentiment reactions as always. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Wednesday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
5
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD/JPY/CHF – The safe-haven currencies bounced on Monday, supported by a series of disappointing Chinese data releases, bolstering concerns surrounding the global economic outlook. Summarising the data releases from China, Reuters succinctly noted that “Chinese industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all fell short of analyst estimates in data published on Monday, as a nascent recovery from draconian COVID-19 lockdowns faltered.”
by thunderpips
6
USDCHF analysis: a new downtrend is hereUSD/CHF fundamental analysis Switzerland's annual rate of inflation was 3.4% in July 2022, the same as in June. It was the highest inflation rate since October 1993, but it fell short of market expectations of a 3.5% increase. As a result, inflation remains well above the Swiss National Bank's 2% target, necessitating a steady pace of interest-rate hikes. The Swiss unemployment rate was 2% in July 2022, the same as in June and the lowest since November 2001.This indicates that the Swiss labour market momentum is strong and the economy is performing exceptionally well despite negative spillovers from the deteriorating economic outlook in the Eurozone. The SNB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points again in September, marking the second half-point increase in a row and bringing the policy rate in positive territory for the first time since July 2011. The SNB is now also willing to allow the CHF to appreciate further in order to mitigate inflationary risks. US inflation rate has surprised to the downside in July (8.5% vs 8.7% expected). This led market participants to expect less aggressive hikes from the Federal Reserve. If this deceleration in U.S. inflation persists, the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will narrow, thereby supporting the Franc. Global growth worries and rising gold prices may sustain demand for safe-haven and recession-hedging assets such as the Franc. USD/CHF technical analysis USD/CHF fell 6.5% from its highs in June. The turning point that determined the change in trend in USD/CHF was the double top bearish reversal pattern, with bearish divergences in the RSI and MACD. The 0.95-0.955 neckline support was initially tested in late June, whereupon the pair rebounded; however, it was successfully broken to the downside this week with an extension to 0.941. The pair is currently trading within a descending channel and has recently broken the 200-day moving average's dynamic support, which formed an important price floor during 2022. Moreover, the breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 high/low) is also noteworthy, supporting the trend reversal thesis. Now, the focus has shifted to 0.93 (78.6% Fibonacci and April 2022 support) A breach of this level could prompt USD/CHF to test the 0.915 (March support) and then 0.909-0.91 levels (2022 low). Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
CHFJPY excellent short-term sell opportunityThe CHFJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the June 29 High being at the moment near its Lower Highs (top) trend-line. This is an ideal sell opportunity on a tight SL targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the MA support since the October 08 2021 break-out. As a result only a closing below it, can justify further selling, in which case the target will be either the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or the September 20 2021 Higher lows trend-line. Until then, expect trading within the Channel Down. On a side-note, there are increasing bias towards a longer-term bearish trend, as the RSI on the 1W time-frame, has been on Lower Highs since its April 25 High, indicating a potential trend change. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
EURCHF medium-term BuyThe EURCHF pair has been trading on Lower Lows since June, below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). However since June 29 and its Double Bottom, the 1D RSI started forming Higher Lows, indicating a Bullish Divergence. Being a similar structure to that of September - December 2021, we give higher probabilities of a medium-term rebound towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (1.000), even if one last low is made near 0.9600. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
EURCHF: 2 Scenarios For This Week Explained 🇪🇺🇨🇭 Update for EURCHF pair. The market is nicely retracing from a key daily structure resistance. Analyzing a price action on multiple time frames, I see 2 potential scenarios: Bullish If the price breaks 0.979 - 0.982 daily supply area and closes above that I will expect a bullish continuation to 0.987 / 0.9915 levels. Bearish The market is trading in a global bearish trend and may drop from the underlined blue resistance. To catch a trend-following trade from that, watch a triple top formation on 4H time frame. 0.9755 - 0.9765 is its horizontal neckline. If the price breaks and closes below that on 4H, I will expect a bearish move to 0.9727 / 0.9711 levels. Breakout will clarify the future direction of the pair, so be patient and wait. What scenario do you expect? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
6
AUD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike on in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we have a neutral biasfor the AUD. The only reason why we haven’t shifted to bearish is because some of the recent data out of China has been better than expected, thus there are still upside risks for the currency if things like Iron Ore can put in a base and show some recovery. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish triggers from their meeting this week could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >6% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments from the bank this week or simply failing to surprise with a bigger hike than what is priced can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Wednesday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
USDCHF Pivot and break-out levelsThe USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down since mid-May. At the moment it is rising after a Lower Low on August 02 but remains limited below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time the uptrend got rejected on the Internal Lower Highs trend-line. The 1D RSI is also trading within a Falling Wedge. As a result, below the Lower Highs trend-line, the trade is a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), while a candle close above is a buy targeting the top of the Channel Down. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
GBPCHF: Rallies bound to fail?!GBPCHF Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.1711 (stop at 1.1745) Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous resistance located at 1.1710. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 1.1600 and 1.1550 Resistance: 1.1710 / 1.1758 / 1.1990 Support: 1.1570 / 1.1527 / 1.1450 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
AUD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA which finally started their hiking cycle has also failed to provide much support for the AUD, with recent comments suggesting the bank isn’t ready to confirm the aggressive number of hikes that STIR markets have already priced in. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we are moving our bias to neutral for the AUD. The only reason why we haven’t shifted to bearish is because the recent data out of China has been better than expected, and still poses upside risks for the currency if things like Iron Ore can put in a base and show some recovery. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish triggers from their meeting this week could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >6% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments from the bank this week or simply failing to surprise with a bigger hike than what is priced can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially, until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside momentum. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Wednesday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. Last week the SNB fired a warning shot for Wednesday’s CPI by saying they can take policy decisions at any time between regular meeting dates, so there is a risk that a big upside surprise in CPI on Wednesday triggers an inter-meeting hike. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. Last week the SNB fired a warning shot for CPI by saying they can take policy decisions at any time between regular meeting dates, and the CHF strengthened across the board on those comments. If CPI beats big this week but the SNB does not act it could show weakness and pressure the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
2
GBPCHF: Rallies bound to fail?!GBPCHF Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.1690 (stop at 1.1726) We look to sell rallies. Previous resistance located at 1.1690. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Choppy price action seen. Our profit targets will be 1.1532 and 1.1455 Resistance: 1.1690 / 1.1758 / 1.1990 Support: 1.1570 / 1.1527 / 1.1450 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
SWISS FRANC FUTURES (6S1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 1.06965 Pivot: 1.05910 Support : 1.04780 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and within the ascending channel , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 1.05910 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 1.06965 where the overlap resistance, -27.2% fibonacci expansion, 100% fibonacci projection, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 1.04780 where the pullback support is. Fundamentals: Since there is a surprise rate hike by 50bps to -0.25%, we have a bullish view on the Swiss Franc.
CME:6S1!Long
by Genesiv
USD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Even though the USD has been trading like a safe haven, the worse growth data continues to get, the higher the likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to short-term mean reversion, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer short-term bearish sentiment-based trades. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially inflation coming up early on Monday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
NZDCHF Wait for one last pull-back or buy the 1D MA50 breakThe NZDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 2021. It made its most recent Lower Low on July 01 2022 but since July 08 it has been consolidating sideways. This has caused the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to get very close. If it breaks, that would be a technical break-out buy signal. However as long as it fails to break, there are higher probabilities to buy lower. At least this is what took place on January 13 where after a near rejection, the price made one last pull-back to the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel and then emphatically rebounded for two months. The 1D RSI sequence tends to agree that we are replicating a similar price action. In both cases the target would be the red trend-line just below the Lower Highs (top) of the Channel. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot