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USD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to weaken the CHF. This past week the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in 8 years. There is scope for further strength from the CHF in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. The first is the SNB’s hawkish tilt, the second is the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF will less intervention seen in recent months, the third is negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown and fourth is rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially inflation ) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. That has seen STIR markets fully price in another 50bsp for the September meeting. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means that the bias for the CHF has changed to bullish and we’ll be looking for big dips in the CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
SWISS FRANC FUTURES (6S1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 1.04550 Pivot: 1.03825 Support : 1.03400 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.03825 where the swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 1.04550 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.03400 in line with the swing low support and 100% fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: The SNB surprised markets with a 50bps rate hike, taking policy rates to -0.25% which gives us a weak bullish bias.
CME:6S1!Long
by Genesiv
USD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to weaken the CHF. This past week the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in 8 years. There is scope for further strength from the CHF in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. The first is the SNB’s hawkish tilt, the second is the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF will less intervention seen in recent months, the third is negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown and fourth is rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially inflation) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. That has seen STIR markets fully price in another 50bsp for the September meeting. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means that the bias for the CHF has changed to bullish and we’ll be looking for big dips in the CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
2
NZDCHF Bullish above 0.6400 but act quickly if Support breaksThe NZDCHF pair has hit our first macro target as illustrated on the long-term (1W time-frame) analysis posted in May: Now that the Support has been tested, we see (current chart on the 1D time-frame) a bullish reaction as the price is rebounding today. As long as the correlation with the 2017 fractal continue to hold, we should see a prolonged rebound towards at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (which is now a little over 0.64000). The 1D RSI is approaching the 30.00 oversold barrier, further enhancing that perspective. On the other hand, be quick to cut losses and open a counter sell if a candle closes below the 0.60700 Support, as that would most likely be the start of a long-term selling sequence towards the -0.618 Fibonacci extension (a little over 0.57000). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCHF/SNB – The Swiss franc soared on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank delivered a surprise interest rate hike, increasing its policy Rate to -0.25% from -0.75%. Additionally, the SNB notes that based on their latest inflation forecasts, further rate hikes were likely in the coming meetings. The rate increase was the central bank’s first hike in 15 years. GBP/BoE – An overall volatile day for GBP, largely in part to the BoE’s June meeting, where the central bank increased interest rates by 25 basis points taking the Official Bank Rate to 1.25%. GBP initially weakened after the BoE’s announcement, which fell short of some participants’ expectations following the FOMC’s aggressive 75 basis point hike on Wednesday. However, GBP eventually pared its initial losses and continued to print fresh highs as the focus shifted to the BoE’s statement to act “forcefully” in response to “indications of more persistent inflationary pressures.”
by thunderpips
2
USD/CHF: double top bearish pattern in sight?The Swiss franc ( USD/CHF ) rallied against the dollar in London morning trading, after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly raised interest rates by half a percentage point to -0.25%, shocking the market which had anticipated rates to remain unchanged. Rising inflationary pressures prompted the SNB's unexpected rate rise, after Switzerland's inflation rate hit 2.8% year-on-year in May, the highest level since September 2008. The SNB also stated that further rate increases are inevitable in the foreseeable future and that the franc is no longer highly valued because of recent depreciation. On the technical front, USD/CHF fell sharply to 0.98, and a double top bearish pattern is increasingly gaining shape, which could indicate a further dip to the neckline support of 0.955. Momentum indicator, as represented by the 14-day relative strength index, tilts dangerously downward and tries to test the 50 mark. Read more...
by Capitalcom