Swissfranc
EURCHF - Another Bearish Move
Hello Traders !
Previously, The EURCHF formed a bearish double top pattern.
On the daily time frame, The EURCHF broke the support level (0.94601 - 0.94958).
At the moment, This key level becomes a new resistance level !
So, I predict another bearish move 📉
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TARGET: 0.93375🎯
CADCHF - Bears Dominating! CADCHF made a triple top on the daily timeframe in the 0.67 zone, and then an impulsive downward move, showing that the bearish trend is still maintained.
And this week there was a nice bearish pattern (pinbar and bearish engulfing) at the Fibonacci levels, indicating that this could be the end of the corrective movement, and that it will resume its downtrend.
I will update the idea as it develops.
USDCHF LooongBased on the previous analysis, there were two possibilities about this currency, either it continues to complete the falling flag pattern, or retest the upper trendline of the channel.
It broke out of a major market zone, i.e 0.886 and retested it. I do anticipate that this price will continue with the bullish momentum.
Entry point at 0.889, SL at 0.8815 and TP at 0.9045
USDCHF Pattern FormationThis price has been forming a falling flag for the past few weeks which IMO it is a strong indicator of a long bullish momentum.
As for the now, the price seems to be at major market zone, at 0.883 - 0.885, hence we are waiting for;
1. If the price breaks out and closes above 0.886, the bullish momentum might continue.
2. If the price fails to break out of that zone, it will continue with the bearish momentum and completing the pattern where the target is 0.857
AUDCHF Channel Up intact. This pull-back is a buy opportunity.The AUDCHF pair is on the 3rd straight day of a strong short-term pull-back and just touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 3 weeks. The long-term bullish trend remains intact though as the dominant structure is a 7-month Channel Up.
As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we will remain bullish, targeting 0.62250 (+6.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the previous two).
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Oh boy!Inverse HS not confirmed in the monthly timeframe. The markets are doing very scary moves in stocks and forex. Something big is happening. Looks like is going to break out a downtrend from 2015!!!!!. I'm already all-in in AUSUSD but I can't miss this one. I'm transferring more funds to forex account. I hate cash lol.
NZDCHF Strong buy opportunity within the Channel Up.The NZDCHF pair delivered a fast-profit buy signal last time (May 09, see chart below), with the price even breaking above the established Channel Up:
A new Channel Up prevailed as seen on the current chart and since it held the Support of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and gave a bullish confirmation.
We expect the extension of the uptrend in the form of the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up (1D RSI also rebounded on a bottom formation similar to all previous buy opportunities). Our Target is 0.56750 (Resistance 2).
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CHFJPY Channel Up resuming towards 189.000The CHFJPY pair is about to end a short-term consolidation, which seems to be symmetrical with the first week of May 2023. The long-term pattern is a Channel Up since December 2022 and the Higher High on that sequence was priced on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension.
As you can see the 1D RSI sequences between the two Bullish Legs fractals are very similar and we are currently on a bounce formation similar to the May 11 2023 bottom. Our long-term Target is 189.000 (just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension).
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CADCHF Testing the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The CADCHF pair has been on a strong 2-week rise after the 1D RSI turned oversold (below 30.00) that is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 1 month (since May 31).
Since the dominant long-term pattern has been a 18-month Channel Down, we expect this 1D MA50 test to deliver a rejection similar to November 03 2023, and resume the new Bearish Leg. Our Target is purely symmetrical at 0.63100 (Support 1).
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EURCHF - Bullish Inverted Head and ShouldersHi Traders !
On Friday 14 June, The EURCHF reached a support level (0.94967 - 0.95252) and failed to break it !
The price formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Currently, The neckline is broken !
So, I predict a bullish move🚀
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TARGET: 0.96645🎯
EURCHF Pump and dump in process.The EURCHF pair quickly delivered both of our Sell Targets that we set on our last analysis (May 22, see chart below) with a brutal sell-off that sharply broke even below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level:
Since last time we saw striking similarities between the Legs of this 2-year Channel Down, we have to make clear that the 0.618 Fib was where the March 15 2023 Low was formed and then rebounded to the 1.236 Fib only to get rejected again in the expansion process of the Bearish Leg.
As a result, we expect a short-term pump to that level, which we will short and target 0.95500 (middle level of the Channel Down as on May 22 2023).
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USDCHF Tests Critical Resistance on Dovish SNBHaving pivoted away from its tightening cycle in March, the Swiss National Bank delivered the second straight rate cut last week, making it a frontrunner in the shift to monetary easing. Officials also lowered their inflation forecasts, creating scope for more moves ahead. Its US counterpart on the other hand, is reluctant to pivot due to stubborn inflation and Fed officials see just one cut this year.
This monetary policy divergence is beneficial for USD/CHF, which surges after the SNB back-to-back rate cut. It now tries to take out a pivotal resistance cluster, comprising of the EMA200 (black line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last decline and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Successful effort will give control back to the bulls and allow them to look towards the 2024 peak (0.9225-46), but this may prove elusive in the near term.
On the other hand, with two rate cuts already under their belt, Swiss policymakers may become less bold. Furthermore, the Fed may have adopted a higher for longer stance, but still sees less restrictive stance ahead and markets are more optimistic, pricing in two rate cuts within the year.
Overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and the aforementioned critical resistance confluence, can put pressure on USD/CHF. So a pullback that would challenge 0.8825 would not be surprising, but deeper losses towards and beyond 0.8730 are not compatible with the monetary policy dynamics.
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