USD/CHF: Jordan’s Final Moves as SNB Chief Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is forecast to show a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, down from 1.3% in July. On a month-over-month basis, CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, rebounding from the prior month’s 0.2% decline.
The figures, due on Tuesday, come as Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan recently acknowledged the challenges posed by the strong Swiss franc on the nation’s industry.
Speculation is mounting over whether the central bank will respond with a 50-basis-point rate cut in September or intervene in the currency markets to ease pressures.
Bear in mind, Jordan, who has steered the SNB for over a decade, will step down at the end of September 2024, marking the end of an era for Swiss monetary policy.
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke the August low last week. The near-term resistance is possibly around 0.8590,
Swissie
AUDCHF: Will the SNB signal cuts?Of all the National Banks, analysts are expecting the SNB to be one of the first to cut, the CPI this week on Tuesday could indicate a cut is coming.
Looking at price action on this pair, we've broken out of the downward channel, albeit we've struggled ton break resistance, but equally we've retested the channel boundary multiple times and so far failed to break it, so this looks like we're in the region of a medium term reversal.
I'm looking for Buy entries on this pair, we need to break 0.58 to confirm the reversal, but I think there's longs to be had with LTF confirmations.
NZDCHF: Descending resistance linesSeeing this pair reject from either the current local resistance boundary or if not the longer term descending trendline.
I'm expecting NZD weakness in the coming week so monitoring LTF's carefully.
I believe we'll be dropping down from either 0.538 or 0.543, a break above this latter number could signify reversal.
USDCHF: Continuation to the downsideThe DXY had a bad week last week and I believe this could be the start of a more sustained downward trajectory.
Conversely Swissie has been on retracement for several weeks against most crosses, but we are seeing a broad recovery.
My view is we're continuing to the downside, so I'm getting in short with a LTF confirmation next week.
GBPCHF: Looking like a fake out and drop to meI see GBP as continuing to be weak, poor GDP data last week, hikes expected to be over, and expecting to see some CHF strength.
BoE interest rates this week, but with the market expecting hiking to be over, I don't think it matters what happens, sterling will fall.
We saw a move above my descending trendline, seeing this as possibly a fake out - we've broken back through my support, now resistance line which would suggest a fall back down to recent lows here.
CADCHF: Ready to go?Been watching this pair for a while, I'm noticing the Swissie generally weaken against it's crosses, many look ready for a reversal to me.
CADCHF has been trading in a range, we can see daily failures at the current level which suggests to me we're about to bounce up so I'm looking for a buy on LTF's.
I first posted this idea on the 18th October, it now looks like we're about ready to go!
GBPCHF: Retest incoming, then downWe've broken out of a long-standing sideways channel to the lower side, now bouncing off support to retest the broken channel.
I'm expecting a big dump in this paid once the retest is complete, UK economy vs Swiss economy, interest yields etc, no comparison.
The Swiss has been a stand-out performer against most crosses this year, GBP has been clinging on but I think we'll drop again soon.
✨ NEW: CADCHF ✨ UT (3D) ✨Shout out to @Oktane for this pair 😂
SLO @ 0.7750 ⏳
TP1 @ 0.7415 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 0.7100 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 0.6850 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 0.6633 (closing ALL Sell Orders)
ADDITIONAL INFO:
00:00 The Easiest Trend Ever
00:32 Curve Analysis
00:55 Only Short Opportunities
04:47 Extreme SLO
05:27 Shaving 25%, then closing @ TP3
06:00 A Possible Buy Opportunity?
07:30 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
Short Term Swissie TradeWe have a 123 pattern on the smaller timeframes of the pair. The third move of the pattern displayed some unanticipated strength which throws a bit of doubt on the conviction of this idea. For this purpose, I've set the entry a few pips below the price it closed on Friday to actually get the price to compromise on the move down by going through one of the previous wave-up supports.
Manage your risk, the scenario offers a minimum 2 to 1 payout to the next low. Happy Trading :)
AUD/CHF could be headed for the April 2020 lowAUD/CHF is within an established downtrend on the daily chart, and the current dynamics present a divergent theme which could send it lower from here.
Yesterday closed with a bearish engulfing candle at its lowest level since April 2020. The moving average remain 'within order' and fanning out, and the 10-day EMA is now capping as resistance as prices try to accelerate away from the averages. The monthly S1 pivot sits around 0.5975 and the RSI is oversold, so we may see a period of consolidation or minor rebound from S1. But the bias remains bearish below 0.6100 and for an eventual move towards the April 2020 low.
CADCHF looking upCADCHF was in a big downtrend but major support zone around 0.67800 made price redirect up
The young Uptrend channel is evolving
Price has bounced today from the lower channel line at 0.68604 and is coinciding with the 50 EMA
So we are most likely waiting for the price to bounce higher up to the 0.692x area. Maybe further to 0.71
To add to this analysis, last week's Thursday and Friday Day candles rejected closes below the 0.69 or 0.688 high levels contributing to the Weekly TF close as a bullish engulfing candle with a positive growth twice the size of the previous week.
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I Like The BuyI like the buy setup for USDCHF. Just enjoyed the 3day swap long payment and boy is it paying well!
Positive swap long, classic break & retest setup, and NFP on the horizons, expecting a boost from consumer spending & christmas jobs created.
Lets go you good thing yeeeeehaw
USDCHF is reaching for parity againThe USDCHF can be relatively slow-moving compared to other major forex pairs. However, we have seen some significant moves since March this year. In fact, the most recent April monthly candle was the largest bodied candle in almost seven years. Albeit April’s candle moved in the USD’s favour rather than the francs. In April, The USDCHF opened at 0.922 and closed at 0.973.
As of writing, the USD is again approaching parity with the Swiss franc, trading at 0.998. Last month, the pair was rejected at 1.001 and closed lower on the month (0.959). This movement occurred after inflation in Switzerland rose faster than expected and landed further outside the Swiss Central Bank’s (SNB) target of 0-2% per annum. With inflation in Switzerland at a 14-year high of 2.9%, the Swiss Central Bank’s rhetoric concerning interest rate hikes has ramped up. But, Switzerland still has the lowest interest rate in the world (-0.75%), and the SNB’s rhetoric has been mild and equivocal, especially compared to the US Federal Reserve. Thus the USDCHF has forced its way into parity territory in June.
A monthly time-frame analysis indicates that the pair may be able to sustain a push through this zone of resistance at parity for June and beyond.
The Coppock Curve indicator, found on the graph above, helps gauge long-term trends. When we see the Coppock Curve move above zero, it is to be interpreted as a continuing uptrend. It is not typically used on the smaller time frames because it doesn’t show accurate divergence signals.
The Coppock Curve is just below 10 on the monthly time frame, which is the highest it has been since January 2015. After which, the curve plummeted. Those familiar with forex history may know of the SMB’s decision that day. After that event, the Coppock Curve still indicated rising prices with this pair, which ultimately came true for almost the next two years.