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Swissie

USD/ CHF Bullish Shark Pattern. Earlier this this month i drew this Pattern and have been waiting on the completion of it. The pattern is complete and the blue line represents the make or break point of the pattern. if a candle closes below the blue line the pattern is invalidated. i put a note stating I'm waiting on a complicated structure to form to justify the entry. we are now forming that structure. we want to wait for the a candle to close above the Mid-point before entry. Be wary of the 50% retracement of this pattern as this is the deciding point for the shark to turn into a bearish 5-0 pattern.
Long
by ARegularGuy
USDCHF Chart Structure Idea - Inverse Head & ShouldersUSDCHF has been pumping nicely over the last few weeks since historic lows were touched back in january. Prior to the bullish run we can identify a clear bearish channel continuation pattern that drove price down to these key level lows. Price action shows a potential breakout of the upside of the channel (*200 pips) however momentum suggests an un-organic increase in price demand, due to US NFP news being highly positive. Thus giving a false short term value only while influenced by this news. I believe price will make an attempt to regulate itself around these key weekly highs now, the short target lays around 0.91600-0.91800, which is also fib level 1.618, I'll anticipate potential bullish momentum before a longer stretch playing back down to the down side, eventually targeting 0.89800< . I see .898 being a potential right shoulder in respect of the daily chart structure as indicated. A nice liquidity zone here at 0.89800-90200 too as our target to give added confluence that we are always mindful of where banks and institutions want to go next!
Short
by WRJ_FX
CHF at Key Area - Where Do We Go From Here?The Swiss Franc basket is at a key level. Since the COVID-19 peak in March, the CHF has been forming a solid descending wedge. Price has not broken below the 1.195-1.205 zone, although it has been tested. This zone was a pre-pandemic resistance, and has since acted as a support for the Swissie. Currently, price is resting at 1.20255, within this zone. The SMA's are pointing toward a downward trend coming into it, and price has been respecting the upper trendline of the wedge. Obviously I cannot predict what will happen here, so let's look at a few factors. First, the last time CHF formed a wedge similar to this was back in August-November of 2019 (chart below). Price came into this wedge in an uptrend, and this wedge followed a similar pattern. Price broke out of the top trendline, then came back to retest the support zone before breaking up. Our current wedge is much larger, but the structure is similar. The most obvious difference between these two wedges is the amount of testing of the support zone. Whereas the earlier wedge tested the support zone a bunch of times, our current wedge is just in its second touch. This may suggest that we have some room to go before the breakout. However, the wedge only has a couple more weeks before we run out of space. Second, we can consider some basic fundamentals. The Swissie is a safe haven currency. With the current market sentiment being risk-on overall, we can look at the three major safe-havens - USD, JPY, and CHF. USD and JPY have both been weaker than the CHF over the past year. A quick look at the USDCHF and CHFJPY pairs shows an obvious bias for the Swissie. So, what do we expect? The CHF could break either way really. There's a case for an upside move as the CHF has fared better than the USD and JPY through the worldwide pandemic. Furthermore, the last wedge like this resulted in a strong move to the upside. However, that is a long downtrend we have seen in the CHF for the past year. Zooming out to look at the Weekly chart, it may seem that the CHF is due for a serious retracement. The 20 period and 50 period SMA's have crossed, so there may be some room to fall back to the 200-period SMA. I will be watching the CHF closely in coming days/weeks. Specifically, I will be looking for a break of this wedge that has the CHF in a tight range now. Should it break either way, I will wait for a failed retest to begin looking for trades. Although I do often take breakout trades, there's a fair posibility that the CHF will break out one way and come back quickly to retest the broken line/zone. Do you have thoughts on which way the CHF is headed here? Let's hear them!
by MRobertsTrading