Swiss suffers, USDCHF at 3-month highBy Andria Pichidi - February 12, 2019
Swiss under-performance continues following yesterday’s sudden short-lived drop, which might have been caused by the lack of liquidity. Today’s collapse however has come from US Dollar demand.
News that US lawmakers have reached an “agreement in principle” on border security that would avert another government shutdown at the end of the week has been tonic for USD, along with optimism about the US-Sino trade talks and the positive reports from Michelin underpinning sentiment. As SNB Chairman Jordan stated, the biggest concerns for 2019 are “political mistakes,” pointing to the US-China trade war and “Brexit and the European situation”.
These along with the evident slowing in the Eurozone economy have been a factor in making the US currency a relatively attractive proposition and safe-haven flows into the Dollar have been underway for the week. Nevertheless, there has been underperformance in the Swiss franc, often accompanied by talk/suspicions of SNB intervention since early January.
USDCHF rose to a near 13-week high of 1.0098. EURCHF has settled to a consolidation in the mid-to-high 1.1300s after printing a two-week low at 1.1310. The Dollar has entered a consolidation after a run of 8 consecutive up days by the measure of the narrow trade-weighted USD Index, which is the most sustained rally the index has seen in 2 years.
USDCHF has been in a consolidation mode since April 2018, within 0.9540-1.0128 range, with the 2019 rally reverting nearly all losses seen since November peak. The asset is trading above 1.000 level for a second day, reinforcing the possibility of a full retracement to 1.0128 high.
If on the breach of this level, momentum indicators continue to be configured positive, then this could open the doors towards the nearly 2-year’s peak, at 1.0169. Daily RSI is at 67, looking upside, while MACD oscillator formed a bullish cross last week and continues rising above signal line. Both suggest the strengthening of positive outlook for USDCHF, and therefore the depreciation of Swiss franc. Support holds at yesterday’s low (0.9988) and the round 1.0000 level.
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Swissie
Shorting The Triple Top/Yearly High In The USD/CHFToday’s session has brought serious bullish heat to the USD/CHF. Price has steamrolled through the Triple Top Pattern (.9985-.9990) and appears poised to challenge yearly highs. A short from the Triple Top Pattern/Yearly High (1.0056) is a likely profitable trade.
Here it is:
1)Entry: Sell 1.0049
2)Stop Loss: 1.0077
3)Profit Target: 1.0021
4)Risk Vs Reward Ratio: 1/1
EUR/CHFI just thought I would post this since I don't know if I covered it in the weekly outlook video... Echf is looking like it is giving a buy setup to possibly at least test that 38% fib. That MA is the 200 on the "Daily". This is not a trade signal. Notice the circle to the left to understand how these consolidations can play out... If you need to, learn how to read price action and trade, otherwise disregard my analysis. I am not trading until midweek, but only if I feel in the mood. And this is not the best setup out there by far, but like I said, I think I forgot this one in the video. All these swiss pairs showing swiss weakness, and the swiss index looking corrective for at least a little move down. But please understand we are in smaller corrective structure within larger corrective structure on pretty much everything and these EU CFD rulings are gonna cause some money to move around. For a better understanding on trading these scenarios and reading price action watch my weekly outlook, or if you watch someone else's, please just make sure they understand what really moves the market. But Echf, probably another buy coming, but it may produce a sell setup. LOL. Just read the price action, could be a very nice buy but could be choppy. Similar concept to Gchf. Eur/Gbp should make at least one more push up "if" it is going to drop, but I am not interested in selling that until it changes its structure, I still see buy, but I feel like these pairs are being fairly obvious about what will happen. Watch out for Aud and NZD strength upcoming this summer, with NZD possibly taking the upper hand when you factor in the USD pairs. For a better understanding watch the video.
Swiss Miss? Ichimoku USD/CHF Trade IdeaThis is a continuing entry from the setup a couple weeks ago. We had been tracking a sell on this pair from the daily for a while and I am still looking to add to my sell as price keeps falling. I am looking for either an entry at a kijun rejection or a break of the blue line I drew for a secondary entry point. I am still targeting the same TP level from our original entry that is now up around 90 pips. If we start getting bullish confirmations, it may signal its time to get out of our sell position.
Seasonal ShortCOT data shows commercial longs on Franc futures are the highest in 5 years.
www.barchart.com
The seasonal play for the Swissie is a long mid-May along with other USD based currencies.
charts.equityclock.com
charts.equityclock.com
30 Year yields top out around mid-May each year, which is another reason that the US Dollar experiences a fall starting then on average.
equityclock.com
Dollar to Franc coming to winching resistance areaLots of resistances lining up together around the same time spells high probablity of continued downside for the USDCHF.
Take a look at the chart below zooming in on the daily. We have a rising wedge in a larger downtrend, which is a bearish pattern.
NZD/CHF NZD/CHF croke out of channel. There is the possibility that it is making an "A" wave leading diagonal, which would then correct upwards further correcting a 5 wave, or it could be making a wave 4 correction to go down. Considering how close to the low it came and the corrective price action it made, I feel like it will break it. I will update you if I happen to see a nice entry point in near future. Just keep in mind it is late in the week and this is a chiffy pair, best entry would be to see it start pulling back on 1 to 4hr making some correction and placing a sell stop below. At present moment it is in a downtrend, but be careful and safe. If you took my trades yesterday you are up more than enough pips and don't have to take any unnecessary risks.
EURCHF - Expected moves higher Hi Guys
On the daily time frame this pair has been following a lovely bullish channel
This has great potential for shorts, once we get a confirmed break and close lower
Until that point in time, this pair can provide us with some pips.
Expected moves around the supply/demand zone via white arrows.
Thanks
Confluence in USDCHFWatching and waiting for a move that could be a few week hold. We would scale into this trade if and when the support and trendline are breached to the upside.
1. Double bottom / W pattern
2. S/R levels breached
3. Daily Trendline level to the upside
Stay tuned and stay disciplined.
USD/CHF - LOOKING TOWARDS THE UPSIDEWe can see that the pair was strongly rejected by the upper level of the downward channel , therefore I'm expecting a probable zig-zag correction of what seems to be the 2nd Wave of 5 Wave move UP within an ABC Expanded Flat Correction . In regards to the larger degree, according to my perspective we are in the 4th wave of a 5 Wave move DOWN on a Weekly TF and I'm currently looking to go long on the final C Wave which tends to be a 5 wave move in the Expanded Flat correction family.
Bear in mind that Flat corrections are not as commonly found in 4th Waves as much as Triangle corrections yet they are still a possibility.
Trade safe and implement your own due diligence before executing a trade.
For further details join us at:
www.valuedbusinessconsulting.com
WEEKLY OUTLOOK SHORT ON CADCHFHi traders:
Almost 2 months ago I published my view on CADCHF long in the beginning of June that ended up having a 500 pips movement to the upside. Now, we could experiencing the downfall on CADCHF as it is currently sitting at historical key resistance area of 0.7700. On the daily chart we can see the price action broke out of the .7700, but quickly drop down afterwards, a potential false breakout. This week, we can confirm the bearish momentum on CADCHF by going to the intraday charts for a possible entry.
I will be updaing this chart for any short entry on CADCHF.
Thank you for your support and feedback.
CAD/CHF LONG TO 7700!Canadian swiss franc has two major horizontal levels. Price action looks like it might break horizontal level upwards and range between 7300-7700. It's had a very nice bullish run this week, however, it is important to wait for the daily candle to close above the horizontal resistance. RSI has reset and still has more room to move upwards. It also broke the curve line and retested it. Nice crossover on the stoch as well. buy and lets aim for 7725.00. Ideas always welcome. Let me know what you everyone thinks.
USDCHF: Elliott Waves suggest that wave-3 will ignite soon!!According to my analysis, USDCHF is very close to end the correction on short term basis. Current Elliott Wave outlook suggests that we are going to have a sharp rally happening very soon all the way up to 1.13000 price handle. Current price is good to enter but Stop-Loss point is very far at 0.95500. The R:R is still good but conservative trading is what I prefer which means we should get waves-i and ii of wave-3 in place on lower degree to get the best R:R ratio.
I will update the chart with detailed Elliott Wave labels plus SL/TP targets as soon as the price action confirms.
Guys remember that its gonna happen only if my analysis is correct!!
I wish you all very profitable trading...