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DJI: Get ready - probable trend change for the southSee the video. No more hear on the video. I'll just share my opinions, which is not advice. The DJI proves me more wrong more times than I am right. So what? The issue is about limiting how wrong I am - not how many times I am wrong. New traders - and I was one - struggle to get that idea right. Why? Because in ordinary life one is praised for performance by how many times you're good. Well in trading it's very different. You can be wrong far more times than you are right, and it wouldn't matter. How is that? It's because you limited carefully your loss on the many occasions your were wrong, and you really milked it when on the occasions you were very right. In the end a sound trader in any methodology will find that profitable. Methodologies don’t work 'for you' - get it right; you work the methodology. That means a high level of discipline - which normally comes after much pain and loss. I never avoid talking about losses, because it is 'the most important thing' to control. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
2
6-month switching strategy. For the busy/lazy investor.This strategy would be seen as pitifully lazy to the active day trader, however, to the beginning trader, or the person who is otherwise occupied with life events, this is a strategy that is easy to duplicate. All you do is wait for the end of April or the beginning of May. This can be done easily enough. Then open up a chart, and find the MACD indicator. Wait until you see a crossover on the MACD to the downside from the Daily timeframe. This indicates markets may be correcting, and it's time to take your money and leave. Fast forward, it's now late October. You are thinking of your Halloween outfit, and how it's going to reflect your exceptional(ly dull) personality. Something dings in your mind and you remember the 6 month switching strategy. You go to your computer and log in to whatever you do with your money. You open up the daily charts, and check it periodically until you see a crossover to the upside on the MACD signaling everyone and their fat uncle is putting money into the markets, and that you should too. ------- I apologize for the colorful characters in this particular narration. This gets boring, and I dislike giving people financial advice. Every time you answer one question, they will have 70 more. People really mistake being nice for being stupid. It's pretty f***** annoying. Anyway just a friendly reminder that the s&P looks like a branch that's growing onto your neighbors property. It's gonna get trimmed. With love. :)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by emehoke
1
Is there new trouble in Chinatown?Sharp ATR switches usually mean something for true trend followers. The chart shows an important 2H trend switch. As always, with trend following it's not possible to say whether the trend is going to end soon or whether it'll continue for longer. This could even be a minor correction in a daily trend, but how would you know if it's not the start of a new trend south. You can't know. Something spooked markets around the world - especially the so-called Asian markets. See 4H picture below The DJI did a bull run and disconnected from the USTech100. We'll probably find out later what all that as about. It could well have been words of hope uttered by Yellen, who knows. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by Captain_Walker
GOLD: Exploiting a trend - secrets shared! Some have asked me about my rather different methodology. This 15 min chart of Gold which isn't my favourite, shows it all. No secrets. No fees. No signups. No signals. No obligations! 😃👍 The position setup shown looks back only to show how it works. There are 5 points at which this trend could have been shorted. If you're a day trader, you might have lost some sleep on this one, but it would have been worth as much as 69 points, or multiply that by whatever you put in for a position sizes. If you had the 'bottle' (not recommending alcohol), you could have added one or two position sizes. (The trend shown could have happened on any time frame - no law says it couldn't. Unlikely on a 4H but who cares). Some knew that gold was likely to head south, but nobody could predict how far, when an important plunge came. Trends predict nothing. You just follow and 'a system' can determine your get-out point. I can't provide skill in this methodology. It sure has it's losses like any other methodology. I can only show how it's composed. The following are important: 1 - one has to spot the trend switch early - so alerts can be set up to spot it. 2 - flattening of price and trend may say something is about to happen (north or south) 3 - price alerts can be set up, so you know to look when something happens (if you're asleep - tough). 4 - an initial RSI plunge or punch does not necessarily mean that price is going to recoil - it could mean start of a big move. 5 - do not fear the RSI - but respect it. 6 - take some or all profits in a very deep or high RSI (depending on direction of trade). 7 - Watch for a 'theory of curves ' - it often gives a warning of the trend ending (approx 55% chance). Skill in any methodology means lots of time and effort sequencing and practicing. Do it on a paper trading account. If you don't do the time you don't get the 'dime'. One day traders will wake up to the value of teamwork. So some can take the watch while others have a nap - the 'watchman' wakes everybody when important stuff happens. 😃🤣 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
6
DJI (1H): WALL STREET SAFETY DANCE? Trend following set up.On Thursday 3rd Sept 2020, the DJI did an important about turn on the 1H time frame. Price collapsed 1100 points in one day (not on mid-point pricing). A correction was not unexpected, as many had known that the DJI was heavily overbought. As this is a trend-following set up, you will find no predictions . However, 1100 points was rather more than expected and the speed at which it happened was startling. A majority of stocks took the nose dive. Even Tesla went south. Many permabull traders were left scratching their heads. Some who got out were punching the air, while others were crying in their pints. So 'everybody' wanted to know what happened. Why? It's - as usual - a complicated story and several factors contributed. A big one was some Japanese bloke (who I cannot name, because of the house rules). He pumped call options to a tune of some $50 Billion in this market. Robinhoods followed the frenzy from their homes and mobile apps, going north like the moon was in sight! Some who were following Softbank may have appreciated. I can't go into all of it. Well, somebody dumped! We can't really know who are these people. But it was a big dump you have to admit. So what does it mean? I can't know for sure so I'll speculate . Note carefully the following is speculation (and note my disclaimers). 1 - Politics is in the backdrop - there is concern among some of the big boys that the US election outcome may not be favourable. I do not wish to get into political sides on this, but geopolitics does affect sentiment. Uncertainty is the big factor. 2 - So whichever side the punters took on, as November 2020 weighed on their minds, I suspect they decided to go for cash. My speculation may be totally wrong and even I do not rely on it. To be 100% clear, I have little doubt that Robinhoods (and moms and pops) will attempt to buy the dip - possibly push price back up to 28900. However, the ATR line in a sharp switch is usually meaningful as a guide (on this time frame only). If price gets back near to 28000, I'll be looking to short with a tight controlled loss (aka stop-loss). Look, the name of the game is taking the controlled affordable loss. Any trader who scoffs at losses, actually needs to stop trading. Some will probably ask me for details on my probable stop-loss. I can't say from now because I'd need to see what the price action is like. I've already declared on the chart that this post is about trend-following. That is a very different thing to the usual you see on Tradingview. According to robust research, only about 20% of all traders are true trend-followers. I cannot know to what extent the 1H ATR switch is important at this stage. This is not like in harmonic trading (trend continuation), where you see a formation and you know pretty well what your stop-loss and TP are in advance. Some people have asked me to explain more. I've done all that in several of my videos. Trend followers can be profitable with as low as a 30% win rate. How? It depends heavily on how far trends are followed, whilst minimising losses. Aggregate losses can be large too. Trend-followers can see between 3 and 20 times appreciation depending on time frame. But returning to the chart. 'We' can't know from now if a 1H trend switch will bear 'fruit'. It may bring losses. That's the name of the game. It is brutal. Stay safe. Wear a good mask. Wash your hands. Don't attend raves. Sleep well. 😉😄 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
Editors' picks
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
5
The Indian Market - there could be trouble here!Something major spooked markets all over the world today. There are loads of theories out there. For Technical Analysts, it doesn't matter too much. 'We' just need to catch the change in sentiment in time. The India50 - often called the NIFTY - made a massive trend switch - best seen on the 1H time frame. Big dumps like these usually see follow through - how far, is another question. But in markets that have been madly bullish, one can expect rebellions as Robinhoods buy the dip. The snapshot shown is early days. I'll follow up on this one. Stay tuned! 😄 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
I
by Captain_Walker
NZDCAD(1D) - rare optimal opporunityNZDCAD(1D) rarely shows a very-sharp ATR switch. There are some interesting features in the price action which create probabilities for the south at this particular time. I've labelled this a potential short (note disclaimers below). If you short this, you have to be prepared to lose your stop-loss. I do not give advice - so nothing on stop-loss. If the bull rebellion is crushed to the south, I do not know how far price may move south. This could be a long term trade, designed only for traders who can wait many days for it to unfold. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
Editors' picks
Short
by Captain_Walker
4
Gold could be in troubleAfter crazy run up on a 2h time frame, Gold has shown us a corrective move which I expected and warned about just a few days ago. (I apologise for sound quality. I recorded this from my laptop) There is an important trends switch on the 2h time frame but it is early days. Have a look but be careful. If shorting, avoid FOMO. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
4
DJI (Wall Street) wobbles. This is a 1H time frame. The perspective is confined to this time frame only. There are no predictions on this chart. There is evidence of an important trend switch for the south, visible to everybody. Trend switches do not mean price is gonna fall. It only creates a greater probability of movement in the direction of the switch. For every probability in one direction, there is a residual probability in the other direction. Lots of traders seem to forget about the residual opposing probability in their risk assessment. This is why I often say that I predict nothing. If anybody goes short on this in the kill zone area, they have to be able to take heavy losses. I always talk about losses quite openly in many of my posts. It is actually the most important thing in trading, to control. Actually it's the only thing any trader can control. Incidentally, look at what's happening with Gold - something I warned about. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
7
GET READY: DJI correction possibly on 4H time frame.In this screencast I explore the importance of the 4H ATR trend line in association with SqM switches. This is about taking early notice of areas where stuff may happen. The future hasn't been written as yet, and I don't do predictions. What I see is the chance of a 4H trend weakening, based on the historical a patterns of the DJI. If the 4H ATR flattens further then there is increasing probability for the south. But what does that mean? Well, it doesn't mean that the whole market will crash. It means that a correction may be coming up. Note that for any probability estimate in one direction there is a residual probability in the opposite direction. Disclaimers : This is not encouragement to trade in securities. If you take positions in this market your risks and losses are you own. In simple terms sue yourself if you lose money. Approximately 70% of retail traders consistently lose money in trading.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
EURNZD: Major switch on 4HThis is a short take. EURNZD has shown an initial sharp switch for the south on 4H time frame. Looking at the history of this time frame (over the period shown), this usually is followed by further travel. How far? I don't know. See chart snapshot below. But this pair is a very volatile one so don't expect it to go down smoothly - and there may be nasty surprises. Whoever said trading was easy?! Note that this is primarily a trend-following strategy. So, this is not about pre-defining targets. There are no targets in true trend-following. Stop-losses are larger and potential gains are much larger than 80% of what is not trend-following.
Short
by Captain_Walker