USD/CHF: Jordan’s Final Moves as SNB Chief Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is forecast to show a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, down from 1.3% in July. On a month-over-month basis, CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, rebounding from the prior month’s 0.2% decline.
The figures, due on Tuesday, come as Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan recently acknowledged the challenges posed by the strong Swiss franc on the nation’s industry.
Speculation is mounting over whether the central bank will respond with a 50-basis-point rate cut in September or intervene in the currency markets to ease pressures.
Bear in mind, Jordan, who has steered the SNB for over a decade, will step down at the end of September 2024, marking the end of an era for Swiss monetary policy.
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke the August low last week. The near-term resistance is possibly around 0.8590,
Switzerland
ETH ethereum100 and 50 day moving average lines. Ethereum barely inside the triangle pattern. The pattern shows an upside pennant. This shape is not completely negative but it's also not completely positive. I'd say it's a 60/40 shape that depends a lot on the total directional movement of the trend. The trend is "bullish" as most people say therefore the flag shape is better than if the lines were both angled in a negative slope. Each day the lines change. With each day new positions appear and old positions disappear.
Roche Analysis 6/26DISCLOSURE: as of 6/26 I have no open position in SIX:RO
Roche is a Swiss based pharmaceutical conglomerate with a diverse range of operations and brands. The company has a long history of profitability and high returns on investment.
Management Effectiveness: Roche has been around since 1896 and has had consistent growth over the economic cycles. Return on equity has been averaging 40% and although margins have compressed in recent years the company remains highly profitable and in a stable leverage position.
Valuation: With a price to earnings of 20 and price to cash flow of 15 if looks potentially undervalued. I like companies that have a return on equity double that of the price to earnings, and that rule of thumb is met in this case.
Summary: Roche looks like a quality company to potentially take some profits and diversify from my NASDAQ:SIGA position. However, for now it will stay on the watch list. I will be looking at OANDA:USDCHF as well as the valuation metrics I mentioned above.
Here on my macroeconomic and current research shortlist watchlists:
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Thanks for reading, have a good one
Roche: Ready for 120% Growth?We're trying something with Roche here, where we think that we are currently in Wave (5), having recently completed Wave (4). This assessment is better visualized on the daily chart. Hence, we should maintain the 61.8% level for this Wave 4. Anything below would statistically be too low, while above, we aim at least to revisit the old high, up to an Wave 5 extension. This scenario would place us at a level of $552, marking a 120% increase from our entry point, with a stop-loss set at 6.5%, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of 18.65%, which is phenomenal if it materializes. We believe the risk-reward ratio is so favorable that we must proceed with this trade. As long as we don't fall below the invalidation zone, i.e., the level of Wave (1), we continue to anticipate that Wave 4 holds. As mentioned, it wouldn't make sense for us to fall below the 61.8% level for Wave (4), as statistically, there's little to gain beyond that point.
UBS Group (UBSG): A Golden Opportunity for Investors?UBS Group (UBSG): SIX:UBSG
Considering that Switzerland is one of the first European countries potentially associated with interest rate cuts, sectors across the board, including the banking sector and specifically UBS Group, become quite intriguing. We've had to adjust and modify our analysis due to a breakout to the upside, suggesting a further upward trend before concluding the overarching trend. Please pay close attention if you're following along. We posit that Wave 2 concluded at 13.87 CHF, placing us in Wave 3.
We anticipate the reemergence of subordinate Wave ((iv)), which, in this case, should find support between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels. Given that all previous Wave 4s in UBS Group's pattern have been short and swift, we expect a repetition of this pattern, suggesting no further significant drops. Should we indeed pivot at the 38.6% extension level of 28.55 CHF and begin to develop Wave ((v)), we will issue a limit order once we observe tangible weakness in the price action. If there's an additional climb, our zone will be accordingly adjusted upwards.
Swatch Group reported a 5.2% increase in annual salesToday , The maker of Omega, Tissot and Longines watches as well its eponymous mass-market plastic watches said its sales increased to 7.89 billion Swiss francs ($9.11 billion), a rise of 5.2% in franc terms and a 12.6% increase when measured at constant exchange rates.
- Trading at 27.5% below our estimate of its fair value
- Earnings are forecast to grow 3.36% per year
- Earnings grew by 21.4% over the past year
- Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
- Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 25.9%
Top 7 inflation-induced trading opportunities this weekThis week, the focus of many traders will be on US inflation data, which will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
The forecasts indicate a potential 0.2% increase in both headline inflation for December and the core rate. On an annual basis, the headline inflation rate is anticipated to rebound to 3.2% from November's five-month low of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate is likely to ease to 3.9%, the lowest since May 2021. This crucial data will be released on Thursday.
In the midst of the US inflation focus, there are noteworthy inflation data releases from other countries, including Switzerland, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and Russia. This diverse set of data presents many potential trading opportunities for USD pairs throughout the week:
Monday: Switzerland Inflation Rate
Tuesday: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator
Tuesday: Mexico Inflation Rate
Thursday: Brazil Inflation Rate (before US inflation data)
Thursday: China Inflation Rate (after US inflation data)
Friday: India Inflation Rate
Friday: Russia Inflation Rate
$USD/CHF - Bottom of Range Bound *M- $USD/CHF has been trading inside a range bound from basically
since 2012.
Past two months, price action came very close to testing
the Lows of printed on January 2021 at 0.87576$
At the current Monthly Candlestick,
Price its breaking out from a Falling Wedge (bullish pattern).
Its measured move would put $USD/CHF at 0.97$
There sits a great opportunity to Buy $USD/CHF from here,
while stoploss can be adjusted in different ways depending on
your trading style and your risk appetite .
(we'll zoom in more for market structure on smaller tf)
Bounce to at least 20 & 50 EMA is highly a probable outcome,
conflicting as well with a test of the nearest S/R area.
TRADE SAFE
***NOTE that this is not Financial Advice .
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea
An analysis on ACHIKO NI made this analysis yesterday for a client and he said you can share it to public, as you can see on the chart the price came down to 0.0394 level to pull back on it multiple times, last week it managed to cross it with the highest volume in months, that might signify a squeeze as it might be another drop for the stock. Time will tell which one it is since I'm keeping my eye on the stock for the client i made this for and I'll keep you updated once I get the confirmation from the chart.
If you got any question or want an analysis on a specific chart don't hesitate to ask I'll be answering with pleasure.
Quick analysis on Switzerland 10Y BondsGood afternoon Swiss investors, today I made an analysis on the Switzerlnd 10 Year Government Bonds Yield, it shows that it's too early to put your money on the market since we're waiting for it to cross the golden point to see whether you put your money on it or no.
For any more analysis on a specific market don't hesitate to ask and I'll be answering with pleasure.
CADCHFCADCHF has been examined in different dimensions:
1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system.
2- The structure of recently formed waves
3- Current market momentum
4- The structure of classical and price patterns
In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis.
In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
USDCHFUSDCHF has been examined in different dimensions:
1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system.
2- The structure of recently formed waves
3- Current market momentum
4- The structure of classical and price patterns
In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis.
In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
USDCHF Potential for Bullish Continuation | 26th Sept 2022On the H4 chart, prices are moving in an ascending manner hence we are bullish biased. we're looking at a break out buy entry at 0.9850 levels where my 78.6% projection sits to take profit at 1.0020 where the previous swing high sits and stop loss placed at 0.9756 where the 23.6% retracement sits
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