Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) - Bearish HarmonicEuro Stoxx 50 SX5E-
Bearish Harmonic potentially in play.
Local top: 4280 (maybe 4400).
Targets: 4025, 3858.
Additional lower targets are identified in Chart.
EURO STOXX 50 CFD
EuroStoxx Divergence To Be AddrressedIn this update we review the recent price action in the EuroStoxx50 and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
Eurostoxx Ultimate Pivot PointsReading charts is just one part of trading a bear market, another highly significant part is a solid understanding of market psychology, heuristics and biases. Having spent 14 years in a QE fuelled bull market where there were few inexplicable events and certainly no major forced liquidation events, it is easy to understand why so many participants get so excited about two days of asset flows out of commodities and into tech names. Yes, the market can go higher from here, yes it can go lower, but calling a major bottom and repeatedly getting attached to these short squeezes is all part of the psychological conditioning that has been happening to many over the last 14 years. Therefore we would suggest waiting for extremes where there is nobody else left to buy or sell, this is where the odds are stacked firmly in one's favour. Patience. Discipline. And more patience.
Eurostoxx UpdateJust a quick note on the Eurostoxx specifically to highlight:
1. We are now most definitely trading below the 2 year uptrend that was causing the ongoing corner formations, good to get that out of the way
2. The index has found support temporarily off the March lows and various highs from 2020
3. If this breaks, which we expect it will sooner or later, the target is the lower end of the red trend channel at 3000 as we mentioned yesterday. Should things develop into something more akin to 08/09 then we’re looking at the blue line down at 2400.
In the meantime, we just wanted to bring more clarity to the picture today by indicating the ideal entry point for further shorts (highlighted in the orange circle), that crash protection is a must if net long in our opinion, crash protection is probably a good idea in 6 months puts, and that if we trade higher towards the back of the uptrend we could be looking at a repeat of something like the 3830 to 3500 move that we saw in the first two weeks of June.
If we get there, we do not think we stay there for too long so we are starting to compile a list of single stocks in both Europe and US that look like they would be attractive if the market were down a further 10%. Those that are on our value list and print any form of accumulation indicator on the platform will be our best foot forward for clients. Stay tuned.
Eurostoxx 2022 Outlook - SX5EAs our first post it is essential to publish our longer term trend channel work as it provides the larger backdrop to our more detailed and shorter term work that we will be publishing in due course.
Starting with the Eurostoxx 50 Index (SX5E) we saw a 19% rally in as many trading days off the March lows only to run into resistance and the 3 month downtrend simultaneously around the 4020 level. That led to some decent chop back down and sideways with 3825 acting like a magnet for over a week. A brief pop higher from there back up to the 3925 downtrend we suggested was a great place to book long profits and errr on the side of caution and since then we are down ~4%.
So what next? We have a point of interest for bids coming in around current levels at 3750 which could take us into yet another corner between here and 3925 where we would switch back to a heavily hedged stance. Failure to do so will likely result in a revisit of the Covid uptrend which currently sits around 3500.
EUR/CAD - Short Sell on Higher Oil & Interest Rate DifferentialsIn this video I breakdown why EUR/CAD continues to weaken to the downside as Higher Oil prices support the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
I also breakdown how interest rate differentials favors investors to sell euros to Buy Canadian Government Bonds paying a significant premium over Bunds.
Europe's economic outlook continues to turn grim as the war in Ukraine is very damaging for Europe's economy that is heavily reliant on Russian Oil and Gas exports.
SX5E: getting ready for a rebounceThe STOXX has arguably a complete 5 waves structure, rebounce of 200-300 points from here is likely if intraday low holds.
Target >4200
Stop <3890.
--
EW interpretation:
Off the top of Feb, what I regarded as azure wave (iv) of one degree higher, we can observe 5 waves structure.
The last wave v in purple is quite extended, but given that wave iii reached 1.236 extension of wave i, the proportion overall is justified.
Note that the technicals of this v of (v) made a higher low compared to the bottom of (iii).
Bigger picture (chart: )
Off the top of Nov '21 we have a clear 3 waves down structure, with orange circle c reaching 1.236 extension of circle a, nicely within the target range projected in my previous idea.
Looking closer to the subwaves structure of circle c, the (iii) and (v) is also quite extended, similar to the pattern of one degree lower.
The technicals here again made a higher low compared to the bottom of circle a.
These actions above suggest a corrective move with a typical abc pattern is being or already completed, a 61.8% retracement of this circle abc move is a reasonable target, if not higher.
For a shorter term trade, the 38.2% retracement ~4090 is a saver bet, but the R:R ratio is not that attractive to my taste.
Stop can be placed under intraday low ~3890, although the ideal target range of circle c can reach as far as 1.382 extension of circle a ~3870.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
EU50 Bullish on all timeframesEU50/ Eurostoxx50/ SX5E completed its bearish retracement on Monday this week and is now back on its bullish nature. I anticipate it to reach 5000 by the end of October 2021.
I've set my short term goals as follows:
TP1 4235
TP2 4193
Bullish on SX5EEurostoxx is accelerating away, guessing that the helicopter money hit it first. This one has a lot of room to potentially grow. Be careful out there, all this growth in the major indices is purely speculative. Real sector recovery has been choppy and modest.
None of the above is financial advice, please do your own research - your trades are your trades.
SX5E - On track to the topAs we said in the previous analysis of this index last week, the price moved upwards and we think it will reach the important resistance area marked on the chart. However, there could be corrective moves that could reach the blue trendline formed by connecting the lows of December 18th and January 28th.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
SX5E – Going to the topEuro Stoxx 50 is a leading blue-chip index for the Eurozone, providing a representation of the leaders in the region. The index covers 50 stocks from 8 European countries.
Technically, following the coronavirus crash in February-March 2020, the price has formed an uptrend that we think will reach the resistance area of 3840-3880. If the price corrects deeper before going to the top, the targets for continuation are the 3400 rectangular area and the blue trendline that connects the low of March 2020 with the retracement of October 2020.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
EUR - SX5E - Long position..Bullish sentiment returned?If the EUR SX5E Top 50 Can consolidate above the EMA price should continue up to the next level on the Fibonacci retracement before breaking down or ranging lower. This should create a stronger EUR in the FX Markets against both Major/Minor Pairs
Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E) Peculiar BREAKOUT!
Euro stocks index broke below a horizontal neckline of a h&s pattern.
we have a nice conjunction of a daily/4h candle close below confirming the violation.
now the price retesting the broken level.
I expect seeing a bearish continuation to
2656 (next minor support)
2579
Coronavirus Regional Long/Short Japan (EWJ) outperforms as Coronavirus cases are low (due to low testing), but country now on the verge of a massive virus outbreak, in line w/ EU & US.
Italy (EWI) lags DM, seen as new epicenter of Coronavirus. Country on lockdown, virus priced in (relative to Japan).
Italy also has sov debt & banking crisis overhang- but Japan also has massive sov debt & banking crisis, just not as widely publicized.
Banking/debt crisis aside, strictly from coming Coronavirus data reaction, RELATIVE pair trade:
Short EWJ (Japan) / Long EWI (Italy)
ETFs are FX hedged to mitigate some of USD vol interference.
EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E) May Drop Soon!
Euro stocks index is approaching a 4 years' high!
there is a high chance to see a strong bearish reaction from the underlined weekly resistance,
but because the trend is bullish, I will trade the market only with a good confirmation signal.
On 4H chart, the market is currently forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.
I pay close attention to 3725.0 neckline.
Being broken, it will trigger a selling reaction and it will be a perfect signal for us to open short.
The initial target will be 3625.0 level
The second target 3410.0 level.
Stop will be above head!
Good luck!
SX5E, SHS pattern forming on D1: SellSX5E, SHS pattern forming on D1: Sell
- SHS pattern forming
- Breakout neckline
=> Sell
"Top and Bottom Analysis" EUROSTOXX 50 by ThinkingAnts4H CHART EXPLANATION
- Price is currently on an Ascending Channel and, after bouncing on the bottom of it, theres potential to move towards the top.
- Price is above the previous resistance, trying to mark new max. It is currently in a Bullish Corrective Structure to continue the up move.
- If price breaks 3457, the target prices are determined by Fibonacci Levels (3502 and 3556,8).
Updates coming soon!
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
- Weekly
- Daily
I'll #BUY #European #Indices Monday
For half a #week
#Breakeven &/or
#LongTerm #LONG
(to be continued: )
#StopManagement and #Exit after Monday's Entry
#European #Indices
SX5E Approaching Resistance, Potential Reversal!SX5E is approaching its resistance at 3260 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it could potentially fall to its support at 3132 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching resistance at 97% where it could potentially reverse.
The preponderance of evidence: SX5EThis is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence.
Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.
Eurostoxx is showing signs of breaking downLast week I was cautiously optimistic that the EuroStoxx would move higher to 3500, and possibly break from there to complete the mini (inverted) head and shoulders that can be identified since the 30th October 2017. However this week's action adds to a more bearish, alternative path.
The blue support zone is a loosely defined price range of significance; this area has repeatedly acted as a support over the last 12 months. Since the January 2018 correction, all subsequent rallies from this range have failed. The index is now for the sixth time in this blue support zone. Moving averages, RSI and price are all negatively aligned.
Today's price movement is also completing a head and shoulders pattern that has developed since January 2017.
ESA: Potential CD leg forming for +9% This is further to my earlier post on ESA: Make or break it. Since then the ESA has broken down from the continuation wedge and appears to have found support on the 200-DMA which coincides with a 78.6% retracement. Given the heavy data dump coming out this week and the US heading in earnings season, I would play it on the safe side to close shorts and look for spec longs. My view is also colored by the fact that the Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 are also sitting on trend line support as with some of the major tech names which I have highlighted as potential shorts.
The 1Q data dump and earnings should be relatively strong given the underlying economy is doing well and the recent protectionist actions taken by the Donald will take time to flow through the hard data. Do note, this is a tactical call. The overall set-up is still negative as previously mentioned, the mismanagement from the Donald WILL eventually flow into the data and of course, an xABCD pattern which I am describing here is a reversal pattern.
