SWISS FRANC INDEX-SXYOn the monthly chart, the Swiss Franc index, SXY is pushing higher to mitigate a supply zone. The price rally caused an aggressive bearish move across all CHF pairs. Presently, we are in a period of minor correction. The slide is expected to continue, thereafter we will look to trade the bullish correction once we have a shift in order flow and market structure.
SXY
$DXY may be strong vs currencies but it's in trouble longer termWe've stated that TVC:DXY has been in danger for over 2 years.
(Not here but on Twitter)
The real purchasing power of US #Dollar has vaporized and has lost over 95% of its original value!
The current system is on pace for a reset. Whether this is by design or not is irrelevant. There are trillions of dollars in derivatives, almost half was "compressed" recently to hide it, & debt. It's like tiny hole in a dam.
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The Petro #Dollar could be on its last legs as Saudi Arabia wants to be a part of #BRICS.
This alliance is gaining momentum. They are forming allies & many more want to join.
Not only is #currency at play here but their dominance of the #energy market, which is critical, seems to be their endeavor, .
#CBDCs #CBDC #GOLD #SILVER #BTC #Bitcoin
DX DXY USD - Dollar 2 HourAfter reaching parity with the Swiss Franc Facta, the DXY peaked ST over 1.05.
Our TOSS level was 104.55, it has been met Short Term on a Throw Over.
It's nowhere near done moving higher, but for now, will range to digest a large
move into the Safety Trade
It did peak while sentiment was reaching extremes unseen. Again we do not
expect Extreme Fear readings to give up much more than a persistent Fear
Reading.
Only Direct Subsidies to Consumers and FMonetary/Fiscal Pivots will resolve the
embedded Senticators.
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My long-standing FX Accident Thesis is well underway and will continue into
October of 2023.
A new Low at the close of the session sends the DX lower, a potential distribution
is setting up nicely Shorter Term.
We'll need to see if this ends up with a larger distribution. It well may be turning
slightly on this pattern.
Observing the reaction on Gold will be telling, it did hit my PO @ 1798.90 dipping
in ever so slightly. Gold is reaching a DOM demand level.
The COT remains in a SELL for Large Participants.
Is a surprise in store, there appears to be one waiting in the shadows.
Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighboursThe USD has lived up to its classification as a safe-haven currency since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, have failed in this respect. Both have lost strength over the past month and a half. The Swiss franc index has fallen 1.2% over this time, while the Japanese yen has plummeted 8.6%.
The physical approximation of Switzerland to the Ukrainian border might explain why the Swiss franc has failed to live up to its safe-haven status. The same reasoning cannot be applied to the yen as Japan has a 5000-mile wide buffer between it and the locale of the conflict. Nevertheless, Switzerland is not the only European country that has been affected by the Ukraine invasion, many of them being direct or close neighbours of Ukraine.
Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighbours
The currencies of several close and bordering countries of Ukraine have followed a similar pattern since Russia entered Ukraine for its ‘special military operation’ on 24 February 2022.
The Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and the Hungarian forint each spent the period of 24 February until the 7 March considerably weakening against the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened in a range of 9% to 14% against these pairs. The two weeks before 24 February saw gradual but moderate de-risking in these European currencies, with the US dollar gaining in the range of 2% to 3.5%.
Strangely, significant movement was seen on the bookends of this period, on the 24 February, 6 March, and 7 March. All the stranger for the very sharp reversals that took place on 8 and 9 March. This may have been when it became evident that Russia had botched its invasion. The reversals that occurred were not entirely successful in erasing the losses the currencies made since 24 February. The Czech koruna (USDCZK) has fared the best during this affair so far, weakening by only -3% and followed by the Polish zloty (USDPLN) at -4.9% and the Hungarian forint (USDHUF) at -7.8%.
DOLLAR reversal at SUPPORT line and GROWTHIn early April, the price bounced off the resistance line 93.42 - the upper border of the uptrend that had existed since the beginning of the year. After that, the price reversed and started falling, during which it broke through the 92.23 line and left the trend. Further, the price broke through the resistance line at 91.67. This line has been on the chart since December 2020. The fall in price stopped at the support of 90.76.
This line of support was also formed in December last year and I expect the price to turn up from it. You can already see how the price bounced off the line. I expect it to rise to the 91.84 resistance. This will be our goal.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad👩💻
⚠️ DOLLAR second breakout - false / GrowthThe price has been trending since December 2020.
During the growth, it came to the resistance at 93.37.
Then it turned around, broke through the trend border - support 92.02.
And it fell to support at 91.13.
This is the reference line for July 2020.
The price made two false breakouts of this line in the last week.
I expect her to punch it during the 91.11 growth.
Will continue to grow and come to resistance.
The goal is 92.13.
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DOLLAR leave channel and FALLAnd so, the price has been growing in an upward channel since the beginning of this year. During the growth, it tried to break through the lower border of the channel - the support line, but eventually returned to the channel. In the process of growth from the lower border of the channel, the price was able to break through the strong support line at 91.42. Then it continued to grow and touched the resistance line 92.52 - the upper border of the channel. This happened in early March and since then the price has been in decline.
The falling price came to the support line at 91.36, bounced back but could not grow much and, as a result, made a false breakdown of the support at 91.58. Now it is on the line again, but I expect the price to break it again and after the breakdown it will go down to the senior support line at 91.30. This will be our goal.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
DOLLAR GROWTH from strong SUPPORT zone to resistanceAt the beginning of the year, the price bounced off the support line at 89.27 and from that moment an ascending channel began to form. Moving in the channel, the price could even break through the strong support line at 91.42. Then it rose to the resistance of 92.51 and fell again to support.
Now the price is in the strong zone at 91.37. In this zone, the support trend line and the strong line of July 2020 intersect. The price has already bounced off the zone and started to rise, so I expect it to continue to rise and touch the resistance zone at 92.51.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
DXY Inverted Head & Shoulder (4-hr) 00:31:26 (UTC) Fri Oct 16Inverted head and shoulder (bearish reversal pattern) printing on the 4-hr timeframe. This can be used with the previous confluence of the daily morning star that printed earlier this week, posted below. This will be used to take in direct alignment with trading for tomorrow's U.K. and U.S. session's.
Weekly Analysis CXY, SXY & BXYNOTE:Truths
-Traders will do the same thing over and over again.
-In trading, no one to blame and no one to question what price did.
-Price can break any low/High because anything can happen.
If you fully allign your thinking in line with the truth about the market then you will win.
Senex Energy Ltd: SXY.AXWatchlist
Price currently at a key level (27c)
Price currently trading above short terms EMAs
Watch if price can breakthrough the trendline AND the 200EMA
Volume drop off