NK Fib Setup 6-19-17NK flying through the 200 MA in the last few days, has reached the top of its symmetric trend. If it proves divergent it may run up to the 9.00 area.
Symmetrical
sbux breakout lookoutlong term trend is in uptrend with trend strength increasing
intermediate time frame is showing increasing uptrend with slightly flattening longer term moving average
might be indicating consolidation...forming a tight symmetrical flag in uptrend
move should lead to breakout past resistance area of 63.5x area and into areas of least resistance
target is the .618 extension level at 65.85
volatility is contracting setting up for a major move
possible breakdown due to negative divergence in rsi so remaining cautious- setting stop at 62.9x area
volume is showing strong positive pressure
TSS SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE-daily time frame showing in uptrend showing strength
-intermediate time is showing symmetrical continuation pattern in uptrend..finding dynamic support on Long term MA
-volume showing positive volume pressure
-measured move shows potential to run to 59.84 which is .30 cents above previous resistance
if resistance broken-up onwards!
-looking for entry from 59.22 to 59.38 area if pullback occurs to trendline if not towards 59.50 area to play the breakout..watching price action
-will not enter if it breaks minor upward trendline
-risk reward = 3.12
-stop at 59.05/ price target 59.8x area
GBP/CHF Heading towards some critical levels now on GBP/CHF and expecting some big moves ahead and we have a few scenarios that are possibilities on where this pair is going.
Currently there is a lot of bearish bias on all GBP pairs so a break below the symmetrical triangle and another bearish leg to monthly support at 1.19260 is more than possible.
If we do break out of the lower TL i will be looking for a corrective structure to form and break on the 1H time frame in order to trigger a short entry.
Alternatively, we could see a bounce from the trend line and move back up to the upper TL in this structure for another leg up.
In order to get a long entry I will most likely wait until we break back above the midpoint support/resistance at 1.23400 and wait for a retest of this level in order to go long.
Remaining neutral for now and will react to what the market does either way.
For more trading related info head over to my instagram. - Link in BIO.
AUDJPY M15 Symmetrical TriangleAUDJPY
Too much blank space for Bulkowski symmetrical triangle, but other traders might not know.
Sell at cnfm break of bottom tl.
TP 76.50
Low grade trade.
WATCH for volatility and also continuance to channel bottom.
Historically, this position creates a minor sell before pulsing upwards.
Bitcoin Looks like it is respecting the zones / channels / ma's very well. Characteristics of PA is very well intact in this instrument. It looks like it has broken the mid pivot to downside, so natural expectation is to price to follow to the end of the channel which also coincides with range mid pivot. Stops would be above the top of the range / ma's / mid pivot of channel.
GBPAUD - Targeting 2.0000 and BeyondSlight consolidation over the last two days from the election hype enabled a retest of the top side of the symmetrical to occur. This coincided nicely with the 50EMA and the 50% retracement level. Taking in the technicals, we're looking here to target the 2.000 level. However considering generally weak Aussie economic sentiment and a sigh of relief from the London after the UK elections, we could see this go further.
China Bubble with Symmetrical Trending Moves China Bubble with Symmetrical Trending Moves
It's obvious we are looking at a equity bubble in China. I'm not worried where this goes, I'm more interested in where this ends. I want to be on the put side of this ETF. I have most likely missed 2/3 of this price move. Volatility and price velocity will be much greater on the downside, and more money can be made when the bubble burst.
Symmetrical Lines
In this chart example I'm focused on large impulsive symmetrical moves on the downside. Both moves on the downside had similar angles. I marked these previous downward moves and added them to where Chinese ETF FXI brokeout.
Timing the Bust
I'm expecting the bubble to top somewhere between July 13 and August 28 (noted vertical line alarms on chart).
Pattern: Bump and Run
Price Trends
China Bubble Burst is Collateral Damage Around the World
US Bond Market with positive drift
US Stocks with positive drift
AUDUSD update Symmetrical Broadening BottomUpdate : Look bulish at the moment
The classic strategy (1):
Entry: Take a long position at the breakout of the resistance starting from the fifth rotation and if the price is on the higher third of its annual range
Stop: The stop is placed below the resistance
Target: Theoretical target of the pattern
Advantage: Strong probability to win
Disadvantage: Bearish breakouts have more potential than bullish breakouts
The classic strategy (2):
Entry: Take a short position at the breakout of the support starting from the fifth rotation and if the price is on the lowest third of its annual range
Stop: The stop is placed above the support
Target: Theoretical target of the pattern
Advantage: Strong probability to win
Disadvantage: -
The aggressive strategy :
Entry: Take a long position at the contact with the support and a short position at the contact with the resistance
Stop: The stop is placed below/above the last lowest/highest
Target: Opposite band of the triangle
Advantage: It could have many rotations
Disadvantage: At its beginning, the pattern is hard to see
Waiting for a real breakdownRight now, we are in a symmetrical triangle and we are going to have fake-out moves on the smaller time frames like we did just a few minutes ago that don't involve any real volume. Now we can see that consolidation is almost over and it's almost time to choose a trend. Since we made the peak at $315, we've had several patterns that might indicate a move, when really, the price was just in consolidation, and I warned against putting too much faith or trust in these patterns since they weren't on a big enough time frame.
This time, I don't think we will have another fake-out. When we break down on significant volume, which I expect to happen, it will become the trend. Right now, I see us making lower highs including the run up to $268 with a very weak pattern of slightly higher lows on the $230 support line. Given that the predominant trend is still down, this pattern favors a move down.
Once this pattern breaks down, the first target is the recent lows in the $160s and possibly a continuation after that.
Symmetrical TriangleHere on the 12 hour chart we can observe a solidly formed symmetrical triangle. The widely held expectation is that we will see price break out bullish with target #1 at about $420. However, this pattern resolves in the direction of the overall trend- 75% of the time. A top-side breakout could signal the start of a bull market for bitcoin... or we could break lower with the current overall trend still bearish. In the event of a break out to the down side, there is the possibility for a Cypher pattern as strong support should be found at the $300 level. We will be watching with anticipation the price action to come. For a more robust explanation on triangle patterns, go here: stockcharts.com
FULL DISCLOSURE: My current position is short.
Goldman Sachs Short - Overbought Momentum LossGoldman Sachs is a short to me here on the daily for a quick short. I'll disclose now that on the Weekly chart I am long based on the giant indented head and shoulders and the smaller head and shoulders that makes up the right shoulder. That is in my IRA however, as I do not purchase stock (writing covered calls) in my trading account simply because it ties up too much capital (usually).
The weekly outlook aside, I like what we see for a potential brief pullback here. Working from the top down, RSI is approaching it's previous two time resistance around 74, indicating to me that the stock is overbought. Both of these prior occurrences happened in the current trend.
Secondly, we have a shooting star after a two week up move, now followed by what looks like it will be a Harami. GS does not have a historical pattern of breaking out above the BB, even after a slight contraction in volatility. When it has, it's usually a quick retracement.
The one thing I do not like here is that OBV usually leads price and it has now crossed above it's 21WMA. Last time this happened it led a leg up. This time, however, over 50% of the move has already happened and it's just crossing positive, so perhaps it's not much to worry about.
IV%R is low in GS, at only 12% so that leaves the possibility of selling anything for a credit out of the books. That means I'm looking for a Long Put Spread basically. A diagonal wouldn't do because diagonals usually require some time passage, and this should be quick. Although I may keep an eye on the diagonal just to see how it would pan out. This low volatility market is no fun, and leaves my option strategies severely limited. Hopefully we will find some nice charts with higher volatility sometime tomorrow that we can enter some strangles and naked calls/puts with.
