AAL - Algorithm HypothesisThis is my hypothesis to find the optimal entry point, based on algorithmic patters observed following this stock:
The optimal entry point is when all the following events occurs:
1) Price closed below the lower Bollinger band (20 day period)
2) The (support) is relatively close to the lower Bollinger band. In this case, lower Bollinger band is at 12.11 and (support) is found at 10.24
3) The 9 day moving average is above (or crossing soon) the 15 day moving average.
4) Therefore, the optimal entry point lies within the lower Bollinger band and (support). In this case the entry point should be anywhere between equal or greater than 10.24 and equal or less than 12.11. That gives us a total variance space of 1.87 dollars (which is not great because I believe the variance space should be less than a dollar, however we are getting close)
So, how do we deal with the variance risk? By following this amazing advice I got yesterday from user techserve2020 : enter your trade slowly, meaning you buy small amounts as you keep observing the stock. So for example, I want to purchase a total of 200 shares of AAL, so I will buy 50 first, observe what happens, buy another 50, keep observing and so on and so forth, as long as the price does not trade below the 10.24 already established and doesn't exceed the middle Bollinger band, which I believe is at around 14 dollars. I think this is really good advice because you are minimizing your risk, while still being able to enter the trade completely.
This is the equation to back up my theory:
if < ;
< ;
< <
Where, P = price, LB = lower Bollinger band price, S1 = (Support) and E = optimal entry price
Let me know what you guys think? And if there's a coder out here, can you help me turn this pseudocode into syntax code? I appreciate all comments and thoughts!
