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T-BOND

Bond/Usdt | Rejection or Breakout? Price has been repeatedly turned away from the same level, and here's the exciting part – the more rejections, the weaker the resistance becomes. 🚀 It looks like a breakout might be in the cards this time! My medium-term target is set at $6, and I'm eager to see if this price action supports that goal. 📈 But remember, this isn't financial advice – just my personal opinion. Make sure to conduct your own research before making any trading decisions. Happy trading, and your support means the world! 💰🤝
BLong
by Crypto-By-Ghazi
BOND facing supply xone againBOND UPDATE: On 4hrs TF we can see that BOND is creating ascending triangle and again facing the supply zone…. From here there is two scenarios I will be looking at which are SCENARIOS A; breakout from the supply zone and flip it to demand zone on 4hrs time OR SCENARIO B; we see a little pullback to the support trendline as it was just tapped twice and to make it a strong support trendline has to be tapped at least 3 times so there is possibility of a little pullback to it before we move higher…. In short, look for long when supply zone is flipped to demand zone on 4hrs TF… Keep in watch Follow for more market update Can chat me up for trade setup
Long
by MICHELXM
BOND/USDT Break the Bullish Flag or Fail and Back to demand ??💎 BOND has certainly caught our eye as it navigates through the Bullish Flag pattern. Presently, BOND is at a critical juncture, confronting the resistance trendline within this Bullish Flag formation. A decisive breakout from this pattern is necessary for BOND to sustain its upward trajectory. 💎 Failure to penetrate this resistance trendline could lead to a setback, prompting BOND to seek reinforcement at the demand zone between $3.578 and $3.32, thereby gathering strength for another upward push. Conversely, a successful breach of the pattern, probability could pave a smooth path for BOND to reach our anticipated targets in the supply zone and the bearish OB region. 💎 However, a less favorable scenario might unfold if BOND, while retesting the demand area, struggles to uphold support, jeopardizing its stability. This inability to maintain its foothold could validate a downward momentum, reverting BOND to a bearish stance. Under these circumstances, BOND might retreat towards the Bullish OB for support or potentially descend further, intensifying the bearish pressure.
B
by MyCryptoParadise
BONDUSDTBased on the provided data, the BOND currency is currently trading at $4.215 against USDT. In the short term (4-hour chart), it shows a bullish trend with an RSI of 67.30, indicating that it is nearing overbought territory. The MACD is positive at 0.112, further confirming the bullish trend. However, the price is below the Bollinger Band's upper limit (4.278), suggesting room for upward movement before it becomes overbought. The nearest support and resistance levels are at $3.279 and $4.278, respectively. In the medium term (1-day chart), the trend remains bullish with an RSI of 60.78 and a positive MACD of 0.393. The price is below the Bollinger Band's upper limit (4.887), suggesting potential for further upward movement. The nearest support and resistance levels are at $2.561 and $6.751, respectively. In the long term (7-day chart), the trend seems less bullish with the MACD turning negative (-0.220), indicating a potential bearish reversal in the longer term. However, the RSI is still in the neutral zone at 59.47, not indicating overbought or oversold conditions. The price is below the Bollinger Band's upper limit (4.444), indicating that it is not overbought in the long term. The nearest support and resistance levels are at $2.763 and $6.624, respectively. Based on the above, the BOND currency seems to be in a bullish trend in the short to medium term. However, traders should be cautious about potential long-term bearish reversal signals. As always, it's important to consider other factors including market news, overall market trends, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
B
by MarsSignals
1
A Gold Traders Playbook – Trading a Headline Driven Market We noted last week that the investment case for gold was shifting and there were more reasons to be long than short – this remains the case and the investment case, although we are in a headline-driven environment and sentiment can shift rapidly. What’s important for gold traders is to recognise the changes in trading conditions. Changes in volatility, range expansion/contraction and whether price is trending or balanced, can have huge implications for our strategy but also how much risk we take in each position. The degree of risk we take in a position (mostly through distance to our stop loss) flows into our position size and typical hold times. Certainly, this was the case on Friday where 1-week and 1-month options implied volatility spiked significantly higher, showing that options dealers are pricing greater movement over these periods. The levels of implied movement remain elevated. Friday’s $60 high-low range was thematic of what could lie in store, although we’ve seen that range moderate on Monday. There is no doubt that we are now in a headline-driven market, which suggests trading ranges may be elevated from here and our ability to react, to be agile and keep an open mind to changes in price will be a huge advantage to traders. The technicals have turned bullish, offering further upside risk - Having broken out of the bear channel price has held since May, gold longs (certainly for swing traders) will naturally want this to build. With price (on the daily) still holding above the 5-day EMA, momentum suggests a risk we push to the September highs of $1947/52 and pullbacks should be supported. A clean break of $1952 would see $1981 come into play, where this level has been a big resistance level since May - where we’ve seen increased supply come in and cap the upside on at least nine occasions. Looking ahead the potential catalysts to the gold markets we see: The bull case: • Traders further hedging geopolitical risks amid further deterioration in the news flow from the Middle East – specifically, if we were to see increased signs of potential military involvement from Iran, then gold will find buyers on safe-haven demand. Conversely, the increasing presence of US personnel may help reduce this risk. • Energy markets are key for the direction of the gold market - Should the market increase the probability of a supply disruption to gas flow from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel, or even the Straits of Hormuz, it could have significant implications for EU Nat Gas (NG). Most see this as a low probability, but should the odds increase EU NG should respond. • As we saw in March 2022 and August 2022, when EU NG rallies the moves can be incredibly aggressive – the result of higher EU NG would be concerns about a renewed energy crisis in Europe. We would see EU real rates heading lower and concerns of a more protracted recession in Europe increasing. In this scenario, we could see gold rally along a stronger USD, which is typically rare. • Again, the odds seem low at this stage, but should the market grow increasingly concerned about supply disruptions in crude, then a move towards $100 in Brent crude would see headline inflation pick up and recession risks accelerate, given it is seen as a tax on the consumer. • We can add in the rising probability of a US govt shutdown in mid-November. The impact of a shutdown should be contained and the impact on growth modest and temporary, but a dysfunction Congress would likely support gold. • We see US economic growth slow down and labour markets cooling – this may take time to evolve – but should we see US bond yields heading lower this should support gold. The bear case: • The market builds a conviction, that through US diplomacy, other countries will not become involved in the conflict – subsequently, equities rally and gold hedges are unwound. • We see EU NG and Brent prices find better sellers and move lower, resulting in investors adding risk to portfolios. • We see US growth data come in above expectations – this could result in renewed selling in US Treasuries (high bond yields), and a renewed bull trend in the USD. • While we expect near-term China economic data to remain soft, we should see the various stimulus measures and system liquidity feeding through to better Chinese growth moving through Q4 – this could support risk appetite more broadly and see traders move away from safe havens. We are in a period where headline risk will drive the gold market – geopolitics, moves in energy markets and the perception of future growth are key. Potentially higher volatility impacts our trading environment, and we need to be dynamic to these changes. Keeping an open mind to market interpretations will be key and price will let us know how the collective sees these dynamics unfolding.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
Bullish Vibes with CautionAt its current price of 4.433, BOND seems to be in a phase of consolidation following a significant upward momentum. Within the bounds set by the Fibonacci retracement levels, the asset finds crucial support near the 0.236 retracement level at 4.689 USDT. This level's significance is enhanced given its proximity to BOND's current price and prior interactions. On the upside, the 0.5 retracement level at 5.402 USDT stands out as a possible resistance, which could act as a hurdle for any bullish advances. The bullish shading of the Ichimoku Cloud, combined with BOND's position above it, reinforces the prevailing bullish sentiment. However, a narrowing cloud ahead might be indicative of forthcoming volatility or a possible trend shift. Combining insights from the MACD and RSI indicators presents a more layered understanding. The MACD, presently below its signal line, signals a bearish bias, suggesting potential consolidation or a minor downturn. This bearish inclination is somewhat mirrored by the RSI, registering at 40.28, indicating it's nearing the oversold threshold, thereby hinting at a possible rebound or trend reversal in the near term. In terms of volume dynamics, the OBV showcases substantial buying momentum, backing the prevalent bullish tendencies. Yet, a diminishing Volume Oscillator implies a hint of caution, signaling a prospective decrease in buying interest. Most Probable Scenario: In the short term, BOND may experience a minor pullback or stabilization given the slight bearish indicators from MACD and RSI's approach towards the oversold region. However, with substantial volume backing and its position relative to the Ichimoku Cloud, the medium to long-term outlook leans bullish. Monitoring the highlighted key price levels will be instrumental for potential breakouts or reversals. Overall Sentiment: Neutral with a Bullish Bias.
B
by MonoCoinSignal
12
BOND Momentum AnalysisBOND displays signs of strong upward momentum. After analyzing the indicators and chart patterns, we can glean insights about potential future price action and key levels to monitor. Indicators and Analysis: The price action has breached the upper Bollinger Band. This typically suggests overextension in the short term, and the asset might be due for a pullback or consolidation. However, this can also be a sign of strong momentum if supported by other bullish indicators. Without a clear view of the Ichimoku Cloud, it's hard to provide a precise analysis. However, the Ichimoku Cloud can give insights into future support and resistance levels, so keeping an eye on any potential cloud crossovers will be crucial. With %K at 64.34 and %D at 71.64, the asset exhibits bullish momentum. However, it's nearing potential overbought conditions, suggesting caution. Approaching the overbought territory, the RSI at 66.50 indicates strong buying interest, but traders should be cautious of potential reversals if it surpasses 70. The rising OBV suggests that volume is supporting the bullish price action, indicating strength in the move. Most Probable Scenario: The bullish momentum is evident, backed by volume and supported by several indicators. However, given the overextended nature of the move, a short-term pullback or consolidation might be on the horizon before any further upward continuation. Conclusion: It seems bullish in the short term, but traders should be cautious of potential overbought conditions. Monitoring the mentioned key levels and setting stop-losses appropriately is advised.
B
by MonoCoinSignal
13
The gold market screams: The Fed are done hiking It has not been the case for several months now, but the investment case for gold is certainly warming up and the reasons to own gold seemingly outweigh the reasons to be short. In a world of probabilities, the odds look to be swinging in favour of the gold bulls. Keeping me cautious is the fact that the USD still offers appeal, and unless Europe pulls a rabbit out of a hat, the BoJ offer a clear signal of tweaks to its policy setting, or China attracts increased capital - then the USD will only grind lower and not see the sort of explosive trending price action many want as traders. We also face a very important US CPI print on Thursday, and should we see core CPI above 4.3% (consensus 4.1%) then that could become problematic for the gold market. Conversely, a 3-handle on US core CPI and gold should find strong buying activity. What does compel gold longs is that the market is becoming convinced that the Fed has finished its hiking cycle. Essentially, the powerful rise in both 10-year real and nominal Treasuries, amid the 7% rally in the trade-weighted USD, equates to a similar degree of tightening as an additional rate hike. It’s no surprise then that an army of Fed members - Goolsbee, Daly, Bostic, Jefferson, and Logan - have in just two trading sessions, coordinated their communication in response, and effectively told market participants that the bond market has done the job for them. While the fed funds rate may be held at current levels until at least March 2024, the next move is becoming more apparent, and the odds certainly favour it to be lower. Gold’s best days are when rates are being cut, but gold traders will not wait around until that happens – on the contrary, we live in the future and we’re pricing that risk now. The attack on Israel offers tailwinds for gold. Any continued rise in crude above $90 will lift headline inflation, but the gold market will be more influenced by the effect crude has as a tax on the consumer. This will only increase the probability of a recession in early Q124. Among other factors that could see slower demand, rising energy prices could be considered in the Fed easing rates to bring the Fed funds rate closer to a neutral setting. As we typically see, it is when the US Treasury yield curve bull steepens (i.e., 2-year yields fall faster than 10-year yields) that we see the US heading towards a recession. Of course, this bet can only gain real legs when we see a 50bp or so rise in the unemployment rate, and right now the US labour market is still very tight. If we see cracks emerge in the US labour market, then gold should rally hard and cries of ‘all-time highs’ will become deafening. Presumably, The House of Reps will vote in a new speaker this week or next – there is certainly a significant urgency to fill the position – so much so that some have even suggested Kevin McCarthy refills the position, at least in the short-term. I suspect that is very remote indeed. Steve Scalise is considered the favourite to get the gig, and that should be neutral for risk. However, should Judiciary Chair (and uber-fiscal hawk) Jim Jordan surprise and get up then it would radically increase the prospect of a protracted govt shutdown and see gold shine as a hedge against a highly dysfunctional Congress – even if the effects are limited by workers receiving back pay. The technicals have turned more positive, with price defending channel support and the Feb/March low. Coming off grossly oversold levels, the upside case does need work, but a rally to $1880 looks likely, where a break would suggest a test of channel resistance at $1912. For now, the gold market has warmed to the idea the Fed is done hiking, but to consider a move to $1981 and all-time highs, we need to increase convictions of a recession and the Fed becoming more urgent on bringing down rates to a neutral setting – that isn’t the case just yet, but it is a growing risk and enough for investors to increase the allocation of gold in portfolios as a multi-faceted hedge.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
1
Silicon Valley Bank / SIVBSVB Financial Group stock tumbled more than 42% in premarket trades Friday on fears of a run on the bank, as analysts downgraded the company and reports surfaced of funds advising clients to pull their money from the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank. Founders Fund, the San Francisco-based venture-capital fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, has advised companies to pull their money, according to a Bloomberg News report citing people familiar with the matter.In a separate development, The Wall Street Journal reported that SVB Financial Group took out $15 billion of loans from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco at the end of 2022, compared to zero in the year-ago period, to assure liquidity. The bank pledged collateral of about three times what it borrowed to back the advances, the WSJ reported, around the same time it sustained a 13%, or $25 billion decline in deposits in the final three quarters of 2022, the WSJ reported. The steep losses Friday came after SVB Financial SIVB, ended down 60% in the regular trading day after it disclosed large losses from securities sales and announcing a dilutive stock offering along with a profit warning. The bank was unprepared for rising interest rates which have hit its net interest income and net interest margin the troubles at SVB seemed unlikely to spread widely throughout the banking system. Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients that SVB’s issues were “highly idiosyncratic.” Also on Wednesday, SVB announced it sold $21 billion worth of securities to raise cash and reposition its balance sheet toward assets with a shorter duration, which are less exposed to rising interest rates. SVB estimated that it took a $1.8 billion loss on that sale.
Editors' picks
SShort
by moonypto
16
MACRO MONDAY 12 - Positive MOVE IndexMACRO MONDAY 12 A Positive MOVE Index - TVC:MOVE The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future. The bond market is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates thus the MOVE also can also advise of expectations of future interest rate volatility. The MOVE index calculates the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options using a weighted average of option prices on Treasury futures across multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). It reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures. When the MOVE Index is high, it means investors are worried and expect big price swings, which can be a sign of uncertainty or instability in the financial markets. When it's low, it suggests that investors are more relaxed and don't anticipate significant price movements. In essence, the MOVE Index helps us gauge how jittery or calm the financial markets are by looking at the expectations of future price changes. The MOVE Index can help inform us of the following: 1. A potential flight to safety: When the MOVE or Bond Option Market Volatility increases this can be a signal of a flight to safety as people exit riskier assets positions such as stocks and reallocate funds to less riskier government backed assets such as Bonds. - The chart illustrates that increases in bond volatility negatively impact the S&P500. 2. Future Interest Rates: By capturing investors’ expectations of potential future fluctuations in interest rates, the index serves as a proxy for the bond market’s overall sentiment regarding future interest rate movements. - The MOVE can provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility, thus providing a heads up of upcoming change to future interest rates. The importance of the MOVE index lies in its ability to provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility and market volatility. The Chart With an understanding of the MOVE Index we can now dive into the chart and the implications we can draw from it; - Above the 85 level is above average bond market volatility and below the 85 level is below average bond market volatility. - Historically when the MOVE Index increases higher than the 126 level it has resulted in significant S&P500 price decline (red on chart). - Conversely when we are below the 126 level this has corresponded with positive price action for the S&P500 the majority of the time (green on the chart). This makes sense as a MOVE below the 126 level would suggest the bond market volatility is reaching down to the average 85 zone or under suggesting stable financial markets with moderate bond & interest rate volatility expected. Under such circumstances there is certainty and an element of calm in financial markets allowing for capital to flow more freely into riskier assets (instead of the safer bonds). - When the MOVE Index falls back into the 126 – 100 zone (orange ) this zone has been a zone of indecision with a potential increase and bounce back out of the zone higher or a fall lower. I would consider this a zone a wait to see what happens next zone. - At present we appear falling into 100 – 85 level (green zone). Should we fall below the 85 level this could be considered a confirmation signal of stability returning to the bond market which could lead to a flow of capital to riskier assets such as those in the S&P500. In the period from 2007 – 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis bond volatility remained elevated above the 126 level for approx. 23 months (in the red zone on the chart) and this consisted of three peaks in bond volatility that reached a high of 265 on the MOVE Index. At present we have had 16 months of increased bond volatility reaching in and out of the 126 red zone. Similar to 2007 – 2009 period we have had three peaks in bond volatility however we only reached a high of 173 (in 2007-2009 it was a high of 265). We are currently moving back down towards the 85 level and this appears to be positive for markets however I would remain cautious until we make a definitive move below the 85 level. We are aware that bond volatility can remain elevated for up to 23 months and we have only been elevated for 16 months and did not reach the highs of 265 like in the 2007 – 2009 period. The chart does not have to play out the same, reach the same levels or follow a similar time pattern as the 2007 – 2009 period however we are aware that it can move higher and that it can remain elevated for longer therefore we can remain cautious until the volatility moves under the 85 level (below the historical average). Its hard to ignore that this chart looks bullish for the market as we move down into the green zone and into lower bond market volatility. This creates a stark argument to some of the charts I shared in previous weeks. I would be more comfortable in confirming the bull thesis from this “one” chart should we move below the average 85 level. Furthermore, it is one chart and for me it would not be enough to rely on alone. I was listening to market guru Raoul Pal this morning and he made an compelling argument to suggest that we are already in the deep trough of a recession and might be about to start climbing out of it. It’s worth considering as recessions are typically declared up to 8 months after they have started and with many countries having already established 2 quarters of negative GDP, we certainly could be in the trough. If there is one chart that would back up Raoul Pals thesis, it is the MOVE Index which is suggesting a move to lower than average bond volatility, suggesting we are potentially beginning to enter a period of stability and certainty which would allow for capital to feel more comfortable flowing towards riskier assets. This chart will be a great chart to keep an eye on for those with a positive or negative market lens. You can press play on the chart on trading view and it will update and tell you if we are moving into low risk levels or high risk levels, you also have boundaries for the extremes. This chart and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading frameworks. PUKA
TVC:MOVE
by PukaCharts
2