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Forecast US10YGood day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea The bar for 10-year Treasuries has been broken. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken the trend at 3.8%. In fact, this opens the way for growth to indicators in the range of 4.5-4.6%. There are elections in November, and we need to show at least some effect from measures to combat inflation. This is the main task. Well, what's next? Let's assume that we managed to somehow stabilize the situation with inflation (actually or by manipulating statistics is another question) by achieving a target rate of around 4.5%. Let the economy go into recession. And, after some time, start the cycle of lowering the rate again and pulling the economy out of recession? The current rates were in 2008, and the values ​​were 4.5% in 2007. And the Fed had enough of this "reserve" in reducing the rate for almost 14 years. DISCLAIMER: The opinion of the author may not coincide with yours! Keep this in mind and consider in your trading transactions before making a trading decision.
TVC:US10Y
by airstels
1
Out of The Frying Pan, Into The FireIn terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the U.S. dollar. The volatility currently playing out in financial markets is unprecedented and akin to what we are accustomed to in the world of cryptocurrency. In order to try and stop the sell-off of the pound, yesterday the Bank of England reversed course and announced that it will engage in market operations. This will involve purchasing long-dated UK government bonds (known as gilts) in an attempt to halt the fire sale which was jeopardising major financial players such as Pension Funds. With these market operations, it is now likely that UK inflation levels will rip even higher than the eye-watering levels they are already currently at. The question now becomes, what will be the next central bank to blink and how will this continuous market chaos impact Crypto and other markets? Over the past few days, crypto and wider markets have been holding up relatively well given the state of the wider economic picture. However, with a recession looming the possibility of another leg down looks increasingly likely. In recent weeks we have seen a direct correlation between inflation levels and the price of certain cryptocurrencies. When U.S. inflation data came in on the 13th of September at 8.3%, 0.2% higher than expected, the price of Bitcoin nuked 5% in a matter of minutes. Some market forecasters assume that the Federal Reserve will eventually have to pivot and loosen up its policy, inviting in higher inflation but preserving the global financial system. However, little in the Fed’s communication so far implies that this is either likely or going to happen soon. Ultimately, either decision will have stark consequences for all financial markets, including cryptocurrency. As it stands, a market reprieve and return to an ‘up-only’ bull market seems unlikely in the foreseeable future.
U
by Coinrule
Reverse Head and Shoulders Breakout in 30 Year Bond YieldVery clear reverse head and shoulders, a very strong chart pattern indicator for long term tops and bottoms, target is 3.6% yield on the 30 year bond. A retest of the neckline will confirm a very strong possibility of the target being reached. On the macro side, I think yields will be forced lower over the next 1-5 years. I'm looking to go all in on leveraged bonds if and when the the 3.6% yield is reached, or if CPI starts showing significant weakening.
TVC:TYX
by RPM3231342
A traders' week ahead playbook - Jackson Hole in the mix The event risk this week is really centred on Jay Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole forum (Sat 00:00AEST), with other global data points unlikely to promote as much of a reaction – Powell should keep the option of a 75bp hike at the 21 Sept FOMC meeting firmly on the table, but offer the flexibility to go 50bp if we do see sufficient softening in the labour market in the US payrolls (NFP) report (2 Sept) and the pace of headline CPI inflation (13 Sept) falls again in the August read. The prospect of acknowledging future makers that could lead to the Fed cutting rates will not be present – the market would be highly surprised if they did hear this. As it stands, the market prices 61bp of hikes from the Fed in the Sept FOMC meeting, therefore leaning closer to a 50bp hike – it would not surprise to see this pricing between 60-65bp by the end of the coming week - Powell will want to give the Fed maximum flexibility and optionality until they know the NFP and CPI prints. For this week, it's likely less about the known event risks and keeping it thematic - reacting to flows from a targeted group of markets. 5 key markets that could influence cross-asset volatility this week: • The USD – notably USDCNH • EU Nat Gas & German Electricity prices • US 5 & 10-year real rates (for those on TradingView use the code - TVC:US05Y-FRED:T5YIE) • US volatility index – the VIX index • Fed balance sheet - A renewed belief that QT will ramp up Specifically, EU Nat Gas (NG) prices are front of mind – EUR and EU equity index traders should watch this closely – on Friday we saw the NG price trade to EUR262.78 – a new high in this bull trend and continues to home in on EUR300. We see German ‘baseload’ electricity prices moving exponentially and again the further this rises, the worse economics in Europe will be into the next few months. News that Gazprom is to close the Nord Stream pipeline between 31 Aug and 2 Sept for maintenance has traders worried that the shutdown may be extended and is a EUR negative. Germany has done a decent job of stockpiling gas for the winter, but the market is nervous. Fed balance sheet dynamics We also watch the Fed’s balance sheet dynamic – like many I have been focused on excess reserves passed to the Fed from US commercial banks – reserves have been on the rise, and by more than the Fed has been reducing its assets via QT - this better liquidity backdrop has been well correlated with risky assets. All the focus is on the Fed ready to ramp up the pace of reduction in the US Treasuries and potentially mortgages it holds on the asset side of the balance sheet – there is little doubt that these dynamics are boosting the USD. And what a week I was for the USD – EU NG, Fed liquidity dynamics aside, a 1.4% move higher in USDCNH above 6.8300, all contributing in boosting the USD – with the PBoC likely cutting the 1- & 5-year Prime rate (11:15 AEST) by 10bp a piece, we watch USDCNH – while a cut is priced, an upside break of 6.85 would impact broad markets and should be on the radar. High beta FX was carted out last week, with USDZAR and NZDUSD leading the charge. AUDUSD gets prime time on the radar, and while 1-week implied volatility is not overly punchy (at 11.75%) and pricing the downside on the week into 0.6870 - the technicals are looking weak, with Friday close just holding the 5 August swing. USDJPY has been a crowd favourite too, and it feels like this could squeeze into 138.00/20 before I have a greater conviction on fading the move. EURUSD sits on the 61.8% fibo of the July-Aug rally and parity is a whisker away – a fresh push higher in EU NG takes EURUSD through parity, and impacts the GER40, with funds further shying away from EU exposure. We do get some data points in Europe to focus on – such as S&P global manufacturing PMI (Tue 18:00 AEST) and consumer confidence (Wed 00:00 AEST), but the EUR should take its cue from energy. GBPUSD looks weak and the obvious level is the 14 July low of 1.1760 – rates markets price 56bp of further hikes from the BoE in the 15 Sept BoE meeting, and this week's data (again we see S&P global manufacturing PMI) may see traders’ massage that pricing. UK growth rates weigh on the GBP, and the market feels the UK may have crossed the Rubicon, to the point where high inflation becomes less supportive of a currency and impacts growth through the feedback loop to social channels. If the USD is to find further form – driven by the US exceptionalism story, rising 2yr Treasuries and reduced liquidity from the Fed’s balance sheet, then other risky assets should head lower this coming week. BBBY aside, the risk ‘canary in the coalmine’ plays are looking vulnerable – ARKK, crypto, SPAC and IPO index, to names a few. Implied vol is still sanguine, with our US volatility index making a move into 24.3% on Friday but not at levels indicative of greater S&P500 hedging demand. With options expiry now passed, we can watch (and/or trade) this index but the higher this goes the greater the opportunity to trade from the short side, as liquidity comes out of the market, the buyers stand aside, and cross-market correlations rise. The momentum is to the downside in US500 and NAS100, although I am still waiting on a bearish MA crossover (3EMA < 8 EMA). A break of 4203 would put 4065 on the table. With so many turning bearish, a renewed push into 4340 would be the pian trade. I favour the downside tactically, but as always holding an open mind.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
BOND/USDT: what next ? - 13,5 to watch---- Mid-term Analysis for the next coming 4 weeks to 3 months - Daily on Daily Chart (LOG)------- BOND/USDT: what next after first impulsive move triggered - 13,50 to watch Context - BARN BRIDGE benefits of a strong bullish momentum as expected at the end of July - now the coin is consolidating this strong move. - 13,50 acts as a strong resistance to keep the coin trap in consolidation probably in range between 5,50 & 13,50 - The Market making on Binance (major exchange) is showing low volume (ask side) once the bullish momentum is activated pushing quckly the coin to the upside --- however once the benefits must be took there is quickly no more volume to the Bid.... so if you are in and want to cash out you need to be in the first batch... Previous analysis (21/07/2022) : Market configuration - Graphical Elements : Graphical Resistance = 13,50 & 18,50 Graphical Support = 5,50 - Mathematical Indicators: EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are support with a bullish cross at 7,50 = Bullish RSI indicator (below) is still above 50% = Bullish to neutral - Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci): Fibonacci Target C has been already reached = 2,30 Fibonacci support of the wave (2) = 5,50 Fibonacci Bullish Target = 13,50 and 18,50 Conclusion Prefered case => As long as 5?50 remains support a further trading range between 5,50 and 13,50 is likely before a new bullish tentative to to reach 18,50 ax 27,90 Trade active: First target reached at 19.00
BLong
by JeanJean1983
2
US02Y/US10Y bonds signals end to market rally. Bear FlattenerUS02Y up ~6% US10Y up ~0.12% Definition of a Bear Flattener = market go down. Is it a perfect indicator? Of course not. But the tendency is that bear flatteners mean money is coming out of the market and going into short term bonds where it can come out of the quickest if market turns around. So the short term bonds act as a kind of pump/dump for the market. We are getting bear flattener headwinds ahead of CPI print next week. Next week maybe market flattens out, momentum dies, slow stochastic falls below 80, and price sets up to go below prior "higher lows". Keep on alert.
TVC:US02YShort
by DarthTrader1357
1
BOND/USDT: Bullish move expected (BARNBridge)---- Mid-term Analysis for the next coming 4 weeks to 3 months - Daily on Daily Chart (LOG)------- BOND/USDT: Bullish move expected Context The Global Crypto market leads by BTC and ETH is now showing strong signs of bullish reversal which is also the case on BOND which triggered a bullish moving average cross Market configuration - Graphical Elements : Graphical Resistance = 19 & 27,60 Graphical Support = 6,60 & 2 - Mathematical Indicators: EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are support with a bullish cross = Bullish RSI indicator (below) is reintegrating 50% = Bullish - Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci): Fibonacci Target C has been already reached = 2,30 Fibonacci support of the wave (iII) = 6,60 Fibonacci Bullish Target = 19 & 27,60 Conclusion Prefered case => As long as 6,60 remains support a strong bullish momentum is expected towards 19 before 27,60 - buy any dips around 11
BLong
by JeanJean1983
2
BTC/US30 Quick Analysis | BTC 📉 Although BTC may be considered as a 'new safe heaven', 'digital gold' and etc., it is actually one of the least safe investments. Whereas, 30 year US bond yields tend to be on the safest side in comparison to all financial assets. By analyzing financial assets against commodities or safe financial assets you take away fiat currency fluctuations. Which are generally dependent on government policies, balance of trade and sensitive to supply/demand shocks. Thereby, I believe pairing a financial asset of interest against these more stable, less volatile assets (e.g, gold, bonds) may be beneficial for analysis. This makes trading Cryptocurrencies a little clearer/easier
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Sanzhar_m
BONDUSDT(BarnBridge) Daily tf Range Updated till 23-07-2223-07-22 -- updated the daily timeframe range here for now. by far its been retraced pretty well and performing a lot better than many other alt's. its close to some long term resistances here. it already picked up some retail interest if it can continue that may help it to progress. 17-07-22 -- BONDUSDT(BarnBridge) Daily timeframe range. if you come to think of it or look closely, you can see there are some huge gaps in between its range space. why! cause of continuous moves downtrend without strong test point. until 16 july 2022 retrace. thus creating the space and makes it a high risk and reward alt. not just that the volume on this alt been very low in that case it was too easy to move around by any p and d groups.(checkout my old chart to verify)
B
by cryptoforever1