Be aware - New breakout?Hi guys,
This is my take of the 10 year bond (yield). As you can see there is a risk of breakout soon.
Please comment your thoughts and give it a LIKE if you find the analysis relevant.
T-BOND
if high breaks,we will see 2.200if above trend breaks,technical say grow will see fibo 161%=5.000
we predict effect of dollar index and 10year bond yeals grow will ease (like on gold ,in future if you see dxy and gold go up,dont wonder!!!)
for now put buystop on last high ,sellimit on trend is exclent idea
10yr Yield is not on watch mode until we cross 1.9 and the 50MAWe said in an earlier post that the continuation upwards for the 10 yr yeild is a sign that there could be a stock market pullback, that is a pretty good theory but also at the current levels really not a possibility. We are not taking into account any market issues like oh for example 2T worth of dollars pumped into the market. Those mini-bonds are not doing much even given the M1 and M2 charts this month.
What we will look at is technicals and that starts with the 50 MA which we will not reach until 1.9x range and the 200MA which is at the 3 range.
If we continue upwards and cross the 50 and head to the 200 then the market is in shape for a real correction. So yes our earlier trading strategy hit target and is still on the upside we are simply waiting for a touch, cross and hold above of the 50MA to make any serious moves.
we see crash,technical say down pullback will comesput these orders(red and green arrow) with SL
secret=monitor AC accelator occilatoror stochastic 5-3-3 on 60-daily chart
best of best trades until 30 april 2021
for now we advice buy gold(symbol=GC1! or xauusd) (before 1800) ,hold until 1900
sell dax (symbol=FDAX1!) hold it to 14200
10 year bond broke broadening rising wedge supportBroadening rising wedge broke earlier, low will be tested and yields are going to spike and make new intermediate highs.
1.6% will only be seen in the rear view mirror.
Yield Curve Hoping for 10y yield to retreat relative to 30y yield, which would usher more strength and stability. Seems contingent on a sub 1.5 10y yield. The falling wedge gives me a lot of hope despite a false breakout near the end of January.
near trend line put buylimit if you check history us 10 is zigzag and we predict this zigzag will continue in 2021-2022) and stocks,index like dow will grow up
OMG - Target $10+OMG has been sleeping for a while, mostly because it follows ETH chart very closely. I expect OMG to have breakout rather soon. Looks to be playing out a long-term cup and handle pattern. First Target is $10.
NOT financial advice.
DYOR
A Short Story about US 10Y Yields & The Stock Market.I've set out what I see as the major topic of conversation / concern thats in financial markets currently as we approach the key resistance level of 1.5% in US 10Y Yields.
Is US10Y Yield going up?Hi there, as I draw, in my idea the US10Y Yield will rise till the level 1,68, I put the stop as a red line, as you see many levels form that triangle that ends to the resistance of February 2020.
I drawed green lines to support the rising, as you see the week ends, using that line as support, maybe because is slowing down from the 1,5% peak, but well it didn't go far away from that layer.
Using the bottom from March there is a projection that i draw with the blue dashed line, but in my opinion is weaker than "the yellow pattern".
I tried to figure out a trend myself
Let me know your opinion about.
Thank you :)
US10Y - Trying to reach 2.80% by SeptemberUS10Y - Trying to reach 2.80% by September 2021.
Goodbye Mr Stock market.
NASDAQ double bottom, buy signal?Double bottom several times, looks like we have support here.
RSI double bottom.
we can see an inverse correlation between 10 year bond and nasdaq.
to make it easy to understand, when 10 year bond goes up then nasdaq down and the other way around.
10 year bond - Back to the pastDouble top in the chart
Double top in RSI
Double top in MACD
THIS CAN ONLY GO DOWN and STOCK MARKET UP! reversal correlation
10 year bond - OverboughtRSI overbought
and I think 10 year bond is in a cup and handle formation.
I see a crash or big correction in 6-10 months in the stock market.
Conclusion is that short on bond and still bullish in the stock market and I think we will push back to higher level in short time in stock market.
Short NASDAQ and Gold!!As per the proven academic hypothesis by Ilmanen(2003), it has been established that in times of growth uncertainty, low inflation and stable discount rates, there is an inverse relationship between Bond Yields and Equity Markets. The simple logic behind it is that, investors are looking for risk free return and if the dividend yield of index which is on average 1.74% for Nasdaq with risk (In Feb 2021 it was 1.34%), is lower than risk free investments i.e. bond then why invest in Equities?
This is the reason why the equities have started to fall now as bond yields are rising. Bond yields have been rising since August 2020 but their yields were not high enough as compared to Equities. Now when the yields are higher than the dividend yield on equities, people have started to invest in bonds.
The same is the case with Gold. Holding gold does not give any return but bonds do and being risk free, offering a higher return than equities, ergo, people have again started to invest in bonds by shorting Gold.
US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT
From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation"
But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends?
jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon.
Why?
there are 5 reasons to look for :
1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level.
2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance
3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence
4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion
5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
2021-2022 is super bullish for stock,indexsell (with sl) on fibo 61% and buy in deep and hold longer time wait target=2.20
2021 is bull for stock,indexso bonds under sell pressure ,break low ,crash possible on bonds
put sellstop in low,buystop on high (hold long term)
Bond Meltup IncomingInterest rates are going to continue to move up to help drain the excess liquidity in the system. TGA will spend the last of its money in the form of a stimulus package, then we will see a great reversal on the dollar and interest rates, as cashflow continues to dry up, banks too scared to loan to each other (and therefore not make consumer and commercial loans), and money continues to move from consumerism to savings accounts. Put simply, illiquidity in the system, and raising interest rates will lead to a smackdown to near-zero again, maybe even negative, to prevent a major shock to the system.
Looking to buy more TLT dips this year. I think the meltup will begin with bank insolvency.
