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T-bonds

TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August. Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around. I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up: 1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming: Monthly The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact. The same can be said for the weekly candles: Weekly When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices. However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond: US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily The key factors are: 1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill 2. December of '22 made a lower low 3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched 4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched 5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too. And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11. Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom. But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest. $98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130. When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers. The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China. So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down. Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant. It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
NASDAQ:TLT
by LordWrymouth
US10Y Double rejection. Targeting the 1D MA200.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.550%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Interest Rates are Moving Again - Breaking Above Recent High2 year, 5 year, 10 year and 30 year yield are all showing a similar characteristic: · Low established in 2020 · Major support trend started forming since then · Seem to have completed its retracement with a double-bottom · Resuming on its major support trend · Target to break above its recent all-time high set on Oct 22 Chart illustrated a 10 year yield futures market. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem, why? Borrowers (for eg. home owners with loan) take reference from interest rates and lenders (or investors) take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Meaning if yields are indicating an upward momentum driven by mainly the investors, interest rates will soon to follow or vice-versa. Though interest rates are making a U-turn from its recent low and breaking above its all-time high. Are you seeing opportunity or feeling stress with more volatility ahead? My strategy: • Have lesser long-term hold on stocks • Trading into the indices - Sell into strength and trading into the volatility • Investing into commodities related asset • Buying into dip(s) on yield futures CME Micro Years Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
United States 10-Year Bond Yield - AT RESISTANCE 🤨👎Massive level of resistance has played out and Stocks could power higher as Treasury yields and dollar might ease further. 4,22% has been a Major Support/Resistance level (S/R as you can see on the chart) and the prices down have dropped even lower, below the psychological 4% What does that mean? When US government bond yields are on resistance, meaning they have reached a point where they are likely to reverse direction, it can have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy and financial markets. One of the most immediate effects could be on the stock market. Higher bond yields could lead to a sell-off in equities as investors may shift their money from riskier assets to safer ones like bonds. This could result in a temporary decline in the stock market and a potential increase in market volatility. The impact on the broader economy is more nuanced. Higher bond yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can slow down economic growth. However, if the bond yields are rising due to a strong economic outlook, it could be a sign of healthy economic expansion, which could offset the negative impact of higher borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy could also be affected by rising bond yields. If the Fed believes that rising bond yields could lead to an economic slowdown, it may adjust its policy by lowering interest rates or increasing its asset purchases to keep borrowing costs low and support economic growth. In summary, when US government bond yields are on resistance, it could have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy and financial markets. It could result in a temporary decline in the stock market, higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, and potential adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. What's next? 🆘 The Feds are lots of data to watch out for: 📌 Fed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday/Wednesday 📌 JOLTs job data on Wednesday 📌 Fed Beige Book on Wednesday 📌 Fed’s Barr speaks on Thursday 📌 February jobs report on Friday 📌 Final week of Q4 earnings Hopefully, this is a good sign to see a further rebound in the markets and a more dovish Federal Reserve.. unless they are aiming for chaos in which case they intend to raise rates over the 6% One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
TVC:US10YShort
by FX_Professor
4
My Thoughts on Treasury Yields and Why You Should Care5% of on a 1-year US Government Bond Yield? I never thought that I would see the day. Many of us have grown up in a low rate world. Today, you buy a US Treasury bond, hold it for a year, and get 5%. That's more than most stocks yield in dividends, probably nearly double or triple the average. However, it's said that the S&P 500 averages 7% a year or so. Nonetheless, factor in recession fears and the trade becomes even more interesting. What are government bond yields? A government bond is a debt security issued by a government to raise money. When you buy a government bond, you're effectively lending money to the government in exchange for interest payments. The yield on a government bond is the return you'll receive on your investment, expressed as a percentage. So if a bond has a face value of $1,000 and a yield of 3%, you'll receive $30 per year in interest. Why are government bond yields rising? I can list out those reasons for you below: 1. Inflation 2. The Fed is purchasing less Treasuries 3. Economic growth is slowing, which means taxes will be less What are the major implications? Opportunity costs. I'll say it again: Opportunity costs. Everything that is bought, sold, and/or traded now must be weighed against this 5% yield. Do you want to buy Apple for the next year at its current valuation or take a risk to get 5% on a Treasury bond? You can substitute Apple for anything and everything that comes to mind from construction investments to crypto. Do I own any bonds? NO. I missed it and am only now paying attention. Will I potentially add some to my portfolio? 5%? It's possible. That's why I wrote this idea. I want to share my thoughts and add a few of these symbols to my watchlist. I look forward to reading your comments!
TVC:US10Y
by scheplick
4
USDJPY Outlook 3rd March 2023Overnight, the USDJPY climbed steadily to the upside, reaching the recent high and round number resistance level of 137. However, the price failed to break the resistance level, retracing lower down to the current level of 136.61. While further upside could be expected especially if the DXY continues to strengthen, watch out for significant volatility on the Japanese Yen with the recent news that the Japanese bond yields have again risen above the 0.5% ceiling previously set by the BoJ. On 20th December 2022, when the BoJ increased flexibility by increasing the bond yield ceiling, the USDJPY spiked from the 137.17 level down to 133.50 within the hour. In the meantime, look for the USDJPY to consolidate along the current price level (supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) before trading higher again with the 138 key resistance level a target level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
4
Interest rates - Bond yields... Are they really going higher?Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data indicating? If rates keep going up, what does this mean for other risk assets? Sentiment right now seems to be quite bullish on yields (bearish on bonds). We are probably near a short-term top for bond yields, and I think this Fed hike may be the last one. The reason is that in Q3-Q4, we started seeing an actual economic deceleration, and inflation dropped significantly. In January, we had some weird data that might have to do with seasonality and adjustments on how inflation is calculated. The critical thing to note here is that rising interest rates act with long and variable lags and that the drop in inflation since July 2022 was caused by factors irrelevant to interest rate hikes. So let's take things from the beginning... Since Covid hit, we have seen tectonic shifts in markets. Many things changed in the global economy, which was already in bad shape. It's unlikely that inflation will be contained for a long time, given that we are at the end of the debt cycle, the end of globalization, we are in a war cycle, we are at war against the climate, and the labor market is changing rapidly. Therefore, bonds will likely substantially underperform inflation in the next decade. In 2020 and 2021, fiscal policy was heavily used over monetary policy, and we still feel the effects of those policies and the aftereffects of Covid. US monetary policy started shifting in March 2022, when the Fed began hiking rates and Quantitative tightening in July. Hence the changes in monetary policy couldn't have affected markets, as it takes more than 12 months for changes like this to have any effect. Of course, we also had the Russian invasion, which caused a commodity spike, and we had Europe and the US spending a lot on Ukraine and war equipment broadly. Then the relationship between US and China started worsening, while China was under lockdown and only started reopening in December - January. The global economy is in terrible shape and will get into a steep recession eventually. Some data make it look strong at times, but it isn't. I think the Fed is looking and acting in the worst possible way, and it's trapped. At the moment, markets are afloat mainly because of human ingenuity, past fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the actions of Central banks like the BoJ, HKMA, and PBoC, as well as the BoE and ECB having some form of QE going on, while the Fed & US treasury is increasing market liquidity by draining the TGA, creating T-bills and bank reserves. It's unclear what will happen when all the interest rate hikes start affecting the economy, but Central banks and Governments will resume supporting markets and the economy. There are several tricks they can implement before they start cutting rates or continuing QE, or doing Yield Curve Control, but ultimately they will get to that point. Now finally, let's get to the charts! TLT / UB look like they are bottoming here. Swept the lows but closed slightly above them. Double top and significant gaps are higher, so that's where I think it's headed. I don't want to say that we will go massively lower, but for now, I treat this as a range, and I don't want to let my view that inflation will come down affect me. My target is the range highs and nothing more. SHY looks like it capitulated and filled a double gap (partially) to the downside. That double gap occurred near the bottom, but now we have a massive double gap open to the upside, telling me it could go higher. Both that and TLT tell me yields down (bonds up)! Short-term yields have been increasing, with US 2y getting near 5%. Maybe that's the psychological level everyone thinks will break easily, but it doesn't. The majority is eyeing 6%. Perhaps we do a slight break above 5% on the 2y, then fall quickly below it. The average bond yield (random average) is at 4.5%, it also made a new high, but this could be a trap. I am not seeing much strength here. The 10y, which I used as the base chart for today, reaches a critical level where the major correction to the downside began and has found some resistance there. Finally, I wanted to discuss a few currencies and some overall observations. EURUSD and GBP are at support but looking weak. I can see how they could have one last dip and then higher, but I don't want to see them go much lower from here. USDJPY and USDCNH are trading higher, with USDJPY being 10% lower from where it peaked. The interest rate differential was the same as now or lower, so something is happening here. Maybe rates are peaking? Maybe the interventions from CBs and Govs are working? Stocks are also much higher than back then, and they don't look like they will go down. Both pairs seem to be back in an uptrend which seems close to peaking. Based on how their charts look, I don't think the USD will keep strengthening, which is telling me that something big has shifted in markets, which is bullish risk assets, and potentially bearish on bonds yields.
TVC:US10YShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
Higher Yields May Cause Bigger Correction On DXYHigher yields may cause a bigger correction on DXY, as yields can be still looking for wave 5 by Elliott wave theory. Yields higher, USD strong, stocks down. Risk-off flows may not be over just yet if yields are in fifth wave. However, when yields will make new high and then top after 5th, thats when DXY can complete B/2 rally, with a lower high, when focus will shift away from US to other CB. However, of course, wave 4 on yields can get more complex if current trendline support is broken, so wave B/2 on DXY may take more time to unfold. Grega
TVC:US10Y
by ew-forecast
1
Yield Curve InversionThe chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury since there is more risk involved when you invest in a longer-term treasury. Just recently, the 10-year treasury yield has reached a record low ratio of only about 85% of the 2-year treasury yield. In other words, investors are being compensated less for taking more risk. As the chart below shows, the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 2-year Treasury yield has been parabolic. Below is the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 10-year treasury which is typically more stable than the rate of change seen in shorter-term treasuries. The chart shows that the 10-year treasury yields have also been moving up at an unprecedented quarterly rate of change. Many analysts look to an inversion of the 10-year yield with the 3-month yield, which has not yet occurred. The failure of the 10-year yield to invert relative to the 3-month yield is likely due to the unprecedented rate of change in the 10-year yield, which has historically remained relatively stable. If the 10-year yield is moving up at a higher rate of change than the 3-month yield, this can delay or prevent an inversion altogether. Check out my analysis from July for a more in-depth discussion on why the failure (or delay) of the 10-year yield to invert to the 3-month yield might be signaling that we've entered into a new supercycle, in which higher yields may continue for the long term:
TVC:US10Y
by SpyMasterTrades
22
Recap of my trade for todayGood afternon and good evening for european traders, for my trade today on ZB we closed in loss and it's one of normal things in trading and which a lot of people don't show and share, we didn't trade any other market for some reasons. I'm sharing this just to let beginner traders that trading isn't always winning, somedays you make losses you recover in other days. Today we got in after pulling wack on the resistance line and added a contract on the place I placed the 2nd arrow, The big green candle came out after the news release turned up the market to continue bullish and closed after few hours. See you tomorrow in another forecast ! If you got any question don't hesitate to ask.
CBOT:ZB1!
by YassineAnalysis
US10Y Rejection cluster. Targeting the 1D MA200 again.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current levels and the fact that it has failed to break higher in the last five 1D candles, make it a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also on such a rejection junction, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.510%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
TREASURY YIELDS AND THE FED FUNDS RATEThis chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right around the EFFR. Suddenly, the 3 month yield dips below the fed rate quickly - and they begin dropping their benchmark rate again . 3. Early 2020 the panic of the COVID-19 pandemic caused rates to nose dive and the fed to slash their rate all the way to 0% very quickly. 4. Fed did not raise rates for two years . In early 2022 they began to hike for the first time since 2018. This also coincides with the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. 5. Half a year of steady rate hikes makes it so the EFFR finally passes it's 2018 peak in mid 2022. The 30Y and 30M invert fairly soon after while the fed funds rate overtakes the 30Y yield. Feel free to discuss what you think of these relations and what your predictions are for the future. In my opinion, the more the yield curve inverts the more problems there will be in the financial system. Eventually, term risk will not outweigh the high short-term yields especially once the benchmark rate gets over the inflation rate. I see the fed doing what they are best ate - acting too late.
FRED:EFFR
by Seth-Goldberg
Rates Obsession - a pro interest rates set-up on TradingView Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident. However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed funds pricing, could increased pricing result in a big move in the USD and NAS100? In the video, we look at how we can look at the fed funds curve and understand ‘what is priced in’ – we look at how to measure the degree of cuts priced in for a specific period of time, and how to look at implied volatility in bond markets – and, why it is important for FX and index traders? Interest rates and short-term US Treasury bonds are the first derivative and so many markets take their direction from these inputs - hopefully, this gives some understanding of how you can use TradingView more effectively to assess these inputs.
TVC:US05YEducation
by Pepperstone
4
5 ways to play the current macro environmentWhy We Rallied It's been a strong few months for the S&P 500, which is up about 13% from the October lows. There were five reasons for the rally: 1) P/E ratios got attractive, especially for small-to-mid caps. 2) Inflation peaked, which historically has sometimes marked the bottom for stocks. 3) Global liquidity turned upward. Every major bond market was pricing a central bank pivot, and the big central banks (particularly Japan and China) added about $1 trillion to their balance sheets. 4) Economic data remained surprisingly strong, which raised hopes of a "soft landing." 5) Possibly there was a bit of forced buying due to a "short squeeze." Why the Rally Is Probably Over However, I believe we've now reached an inflection point where these tailwinds will turn into headwinds. 1) The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 P/E ratios are once again looking high (although S&P 400 and S&P 600 still look cheap). (See this report from Ed Yardeni.) 2) Inflation is no longer surprising to the downside. The last couple prints have been exactly in line with forecasts, and leading indicators of inflation have been creeping back up. See, for instance, this chart of service sector wages, this chart of copper prices, and this Goldman Sachs forecast of crude oil prices. This is partly because of the global liquidity boost and continued deficit spending , and it's partly because of China ending its Covid-zero policy and reopening its economy. (China is the largest importer of crude and the second-largest importer of liquified natural gas in the world.) 3) With inflation set to stay high, liquidity has tightened a lot. The market is no longer pricing a Fed pivot , and analysts suggest the central bank liquidity boost may be over . Stocks have now gotten significantly higher than liquidity measures would predict , which suggests they may need to come down a little. 4) Economic data are deteriorating. Leading indicators have been pointing toward recession for months , but consumer savings and a glut of job openings have helped delay it. We're definitely starting to see weakness, though. Credit card debt has soared to an all-time high , we're seeing more late payments , and the housing market is cooling off fast , with inventories of unused construction materials piling up . We've seen "soft landing" hype before: in 2000 and 2007 , just before those recessions hit. Unless the Fed pivots immediately, it's probably not "different this time." 5) The short squeeze is over for large cap tech, with most of the shorts already forced out. Five Ideas for How to Reposition How to trade a coming recession? 1) The obvious trade is long bonds, short stocks. Bond market valuations are very attractive relative to stocks, with bond yields only a little below the S&P 500's earnings yield, and bond markets having perhaps gotten too hawkish relative to policy rates. Given the historical correlation between 10-year yields and S&P 500 valuations, the gap that has opened between them may imply an opportunity for a statistical arb. Either stock valuations should drop or bond yields should rise. Historically, in a recessionary environment, the bond market has tended to recover first, and the stock market second. So now would be the time to long those bonds. However , it should be noted that this recessionary environment is an unusual one in a lot of ways. Stocks have already sold off a lot, and valuations are pretty mixed. Bonds should perform well if we get a deflationary recession that allows to Fed to lower rates, but a stagflationary recession might force the Fed to keep rates high even as the economy stumbles. Thus, it may be worth getting a little more specific with our trade. Here are some other ideas: 2) Long investment-grade bonds, short high-yield bonds. If recession is coming, then high-yield spreads are probably way too low . It's possible that high-yield bond rates will rise even as investment-grade, Treasury, and policy rates fall. 3) Long high-quality small- and mid-caps, short low-quality large caps. In my opinion, large cap tech is still way too crowded. I wouldn't want to short Microsoft right now, given the success of Bing AI. But I'd be willing to take a swing at Amazon, Apple, and Netflix as long as I could balance the risk by longing some cheap, quality smalls and mids on the other side. In my opinion, the size factor is ripe for disruption. If you'd asked me two years ago, I would have said that AI would most benefit large cap tech. Now I think it will most benefit smalls. What changed between now and then is that AI went from being the exclusive domain of big companies to being publicly available at shockingly low cost. This happened way faster than I ever would have guessed, and you better believe that small, agile companies will capitalize on the opportunities provided by access to AI! 4) Long cash to buy the dip on energy stocks. Energy historically has struggled in a recession, so it's quite likely that energy stocks will see some downside soon. However, the current free cash flow yield on energy stocks is quite high , and the sector trades at 10x forward P/E . Meanwhile, investment in the sector is still much too low . I believe there will be a decade-long structural bull market in energy due to constrained supply, but that there will probably be some recessionary pain first. Meanwhile, money market funds offer a really high return on cash. My Fidelity money market is giving me almost 4%. Ain't nothing wrong with just collecting that money market rate and waiting for energy stocks to dip for the buy and hold. With retail investor inflows at an all-time high , I believe the current market environment offers a good opportunity for savvy bears to execute some well-constructed long-short trades. If you look at how the smart money is positioned, it's pretty much the opposite of retail positioning here. There will be a time to get bullish on US large cap stocks, but we probably need to see some weakening of coincident economic indicators like employment first. (Stocks tend to do best when unemployment rates are high .) Remember, market positioning beats market timing, but ideally you could do a little of both! Thanks for reading, and please share your ideas in the comments below!
NASDAQ:VCLTLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
16
2023 Market Projections: Leading Indicators and AnalysisTVC:US10Y The recent market response to data on CPI , PPI, and the selloff in the bond market, coupled with hints from the Fed about potentially raising rates towards 5% to 5.25%, provide important insights into where the markets could be heading in the coming weeks. Looking at the weekly chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, we can see a massive rising wedge pattern with a bull flag inside the wedge . The break out of the bull flag last week has a target of 5% to 5.25%, which aligns with the Fed's projected peak policy and the top of the wedge in the chart. There are some bullish signs in this chart, a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly with both the RSI and MACD , indicating a bullish continuation of the trend. Additionally, there is a bullish divergence on the daily chart , as shared a few days ago. These signals increase the likelihood of a bullish move in the 10-year yield, and if this plays out as projected, it could lead to high selling pressure in markets, including the stock market and crypto. Higher yields can reduce the profitability and spending power of companies and individuals, and make stocks and cryptocurrencies less attractive as investment options. It's important to keep a close eye on the bond market and monitor any potential impacts on other markets. This could mark the final leg down or a bottoming process in the current bear market, with the last leg down typically being a massive one. In the coming weeks, there may be a triple bearish divergence that develops on the 10-year yield, which could signal a nearby bottom in bonds. The stock market is expected to follow suit weeks later. It's worth noting that this analysis is based on confluence and projections around recent developments, leading indicators, and technical analysis projection methods. However, there are no confirmations on many aspects of it yet, and there is always a degree of unpredictability in financial markets. Therefore, it's important to acknowledge the uncertainties and potential risks involved in making projections based on technical analysis . It's also important to emphasize that this is not financial advice, and readers should always do their own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. Seeking professional financial advice before making significant investment decisions is also highly recommended.
TVC:US10Y
by ahmad_alibrahim