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T-bonds

US Government Bonds 10YR Yield LONGUS Government Bonds 10YR Yield. Time-frame = 1 month. In 2005-2007 (red circle) - a double top was built (determined automatically by my script) from which the downward movement began for further accumulation. 2009-2019 (green rectangle) - long-term accumulation (balance). 2019-2022 (blue circle) - responsive activity (long entry by key players). 2022-2023 long to the upper limit of the balance. The last 3 months - a retest to one of the key balance levels. 2023 - expect further upward movement towards the 5.000% area (towards the upper border of the double top)
TVC:US10YLong
by ZenFunds
3
US10Y: Short the next spikeFamiliar pattern for the US10Y as with the support of the 4H MA200 it is repeating the mid December +13.50% rise. In perfect symmetry a new +13.50% rise tops on the Resistance provided by the first Lower High of the down leg, same as the November 13th Lower High. The 1D technicals have just come out of neutrality (RSI = 57.935, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 33.193) and an additional short trigger will be the next time the 4H RSI turns overbought above 75.00. Our short term target is right above the Support (TP = 3.340%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
5
Don't Fight The FedOn February 1st, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released, and the Fed announced a 25bps rate hike. As such, markets started to rally. An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as “encouraging and gratifying”. This was seen by markets as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the ideas that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets shortsightedly adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying unless one of two cases occurs: First if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens the market into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the CPI . Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently at 4.65% and CPI inflation at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence in the hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing is for sure, the S&P500 will take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
Long
by Coinrule
US10Y: Trapped inside the 4H MA50-MA200The US10Y, a major driver for Gold, is trapped inside the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200, before tomorrow's Fed Rate Decision. This shows the market uncertainty surrounding this event as investors haven't yet chosen to pick sides. That keeps 4H neutral technically (RSI = 52.167, MACD = 0.014, ADX = 27.887) and we can only trade this with careful points that will be triggered after a level is breached. A breach over the 4H MA200 is a buy (TP = 3.780 / the Resistance). A breach under the 4H MA50 is a sell (TP = 3.420 / the Support). Carefully sell on tight SL further breaches below the Support (TP = 1D MA200 and Main LL in extension). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
4
The Rand in the rocky credit markets The economic calendar is wild this week so I thought it would be best to do a deep fundamental dive into the USDZAR . All the attention will be on the Federal reserve tomorrow and whether or when they will pause their rate hikes. We need to look past the hype around the interest rate and the “pivot" narrative. Focus should however be on how the markets will cope with the Fed’s liquidity drain and how it will impact the future price of money ( ie . Interest rates). Before we kick-off, correlation does not imply causation... I’ll start by explaining the chart you’re looking at. What you’re seeing is the positive correlation between the USDZAR and the difference between the South African government bond 10-year yield (ZA10Y) and the US 10-year treasury yield (US10Y). The interest rate differential is referred to as the carry trade potential. Investors can borrow money on the cheap from developed low-risk markets and invest the borrowed money in riskier destinations to earn more interest. The interest rate difference is then pocketed by the investor. The preferred vehicle to capitalise on the interest rate differentials between two locations are government bonds (they are low risk and liquid). The reason for the positive correlation between the USDZAR and the bond yield differential is because when there is risk-on sentiment in the market, investors tend to move funds out of the safety of US treasuries and into riskier assets. The sell-off in US treasuries causes US10Y yields to rise (decreasing the bond yield differential), and the rand tends to appreciate in risk-on phases of the market, citrus paribus. (Decreasing bond yield differential; USDZAR decrease due to rand appreciation). Conversely, when investors are risk-off they run to the safety of US treasuries. The buying of US-treasuries lowers the US10-year yield which increases our bond yield differential. We all know how rapidly the rand can depreciate in risk-off phases when the liquidity wave pulls back to the US, leaving the rand on the rocky shore. (Increasing bond yield differential; USDZAR increases). Our strong correlation however weakened in August 2022 when the US 10-year yield rocketed higher after the Fed started their hiking cycle. Let’s zoom in on the Fed since its Fed week. The most important chart in the market , the Fed’s balance sheet: www.federalreserve.gov . The Fed has so far tapered roughly 5.52% off its balance sheet since April 2022. The Fed is selling treasuries to taper its balance sheet and to soak up liquidity from the market (if there will be enough buyers, only time will tell). This is rand negative. Now let’s get to where all this week’s focus will be, the Fed’s interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to slow its rate hikes to 25bps this week and push rates from 4.50% to 4.75%. The Fed tends to follow the US02-year yield (US02Y) as guidance on its interest rates and it seems as if the US02-year yield has topped out between 4.75% and 5.00%. The Fed pause seems near, and the latest inflation figures from the US supports the narrative that the Fed has managed to cool inflation. The most concerning thing in the market currently is the inverted yield curve: History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. For the Fed to normalise the credit markets it will have to pause rates. That is usually when something the market breaks and the Fed is forced to cut rates and inject liquidity into the markets. When the Fed pushes easy money ( QE or whatever buzz phrase they'll use) into the market investors rotate from longer dated bonds to shorter dated bonds. To conclude, if and when the Fed pauses its rate hikes, the US10-year yield will melt higher which could be rand positive based off our correlation analysis. Just have popcorn (and gold , silver and other real assets) ready for when the Fed is forced to cut rates/ pivot because that will be caused by arguably the biggest credit market implosion in the history of fiat money. To end off I leave you with the words of Zoltan Pozsar: "commodities are collateral, and collateral is money."
by Goose96
Weekend Update: Bond yields to move higherI received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure alternates with our previous wave 2 structure. We should have been expecting wave 4 to be deep and quick, were as our wave appears shallow and long. That is precisely what occurred. From here I would expect within the next month to begin to clearly subdivide in our wave 3 of 5 and target yields in the 4.294% to 4.529%. This would be for our wave 3. Upon that happening we'll need a 4 and then the ultimate destination for this structure is in the target box for wave 5. I've enjoyed the ongoing conversations in Trader-World about who is right?...The bond market or the Fed? I don't follow bonds closely, nor have I ever traded them, therefore I don't what constitutes victory for bonds or The Fed. But I will pose this question to those reading this...what does 4.895% yield on the 30y mean? Who wins, Bonds, The Fed, or both? Best to all, Chris
TVC:US30Y
by maikisch
4
Inverse Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern ConfirmedAn inverse Head & Shoulders has confirmed the neckline with a price target of 127 by the end of June. Last Jan I posted this recession projection for TLT And then I projected the spike in yields on the 10Yr right before the Aug Rug Pull from Jerome Powell. Finally catching the double bottom reversal at the bottom at the lows of 91.85 Bond bears are calling this reversal a trap/mistake suggesting a Mistake in 2 rate cuts in the 2nd half of 2023. I only monitor TLT for technical analysis and to confirm / invalidate trends for the S&P 500. Not financial or trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by SPYvsGME
1
US10Y Approaching the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High. A closing below the 1D MA200 first, would largely be a long-term sell signal that could break below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel and target the 2.510% Support (August 02 Low) and make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been our long-term bearish target since October. The 1D RSI can also offer sell entries on its own Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
Short to C wave, but im a buyer of the DipsI'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the yield rising as the price of TLT declines . I see the dividend yield potentially rising to 4% , that would be an outstanding monthly yield for long term holders. You can also sell puts here, or calls to generate revenue. Long term buyer, and Call writer (which will lower my cost basis, and return use the upfront premium to buy more shares of this etf, further increasing the yield and dividends)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by moneyflow_trader
Include $TLT in Your Portfolio 🪙Bonds are seriously underperforming stocks and TLT has been on a downtrend since the onset of Covid lockdowns when global governments printed massive amounts of money to prop up the equity markets. In Oct 2022, TLT broke below the 2014 low and then recovered nicely. I believe allocating like 10% in treasuries will be beneficial with the outlook of 2-4 years as we can expect the world to start to work around the sticky high interest rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by raamraj