T-bonds
EURAUD - Long EOD set upThe technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America.
© Oliver Levingston
Merrill Lynch (Australia)
oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com
• The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower terminal rate in 2023
• The AU curve still looks too steep and we see inflation risks as increasingly skewed to the upside.
Slowing down, not a slowdown
We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate by another 25bp to 3.1% at its 6 December meeting. Markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike (24% chance of a pause) as at the time of writing. The message will echo its determination to keep the economy on ‘an even keel’, balancing the challenge of suppressing rising inflation with the risk that rate hikes could tip the economy into recession.
The RBA has moved cautiously on rate hikes: not only was it slow to lift off, waiting until May 2022 to do so; it also surprised markets by downshifting to a 25bp hike in October, becoming the first major DM central bank to slowdown the pace of rate increases. It then stuck to its gradual hiking pace at its November meeting, despite a strong 3Q CPI print (see RBA review: Sticking to 25, 1 November 2022). The RBA has cited the high frequency of its meetings – the RBA meets 11 times, the FOMC and ECB each have 8 meetings scheduled per year – as a reason why it can afford to take a gradual approach.
Market pricing reflects increasingly dovish sentiment – markets are now pricing rates to rise to just 3.5% in mid-2023, down about 30bps in a month. Optimism on rates grew after the RBA’s monthly CPI for October, released on 30 November, showed both the headline inflation slowing to 6.9%YoY (vs. 7.3% in Sep) and the trimmed mean measure easing to 5.3%YoY (5.4% in Sep). However, we caution that for October, the new monthly series contains only 62% of the price data used in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) quarterly CPI – it omits, for example, new information on many administered prices such as utilities, which are not priced until the final month of the quarter.
For these reasons, the RBA has stated that “the quarterly CPI is likely to remain the principal measure of CPI inflation in Australia for the foreseeable future,”1 making it premature to call for a peaking in inflation based on the October monthly CPI print. Nor does it change the fact that inflation is likely to remain well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%.
Yet the RBA will likely remain less hawkish than its counterparts overseas. Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) has only recently started to pick up above 3%. The RBA does not yet see signs of a wage-price spiral, though it has stressed the need to remain vigilant. It noted in its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) that “reports of higher labour costs contributing to price increases have so far been largely contained to price increases have so far been largely contained to a few specific sectors.” A softer retail trade print (-0/2% MoM) and Governor Lowe’s apology before the Senate for the RBA’s (abandoned) promise to hold interest rates steady out to 2024 have added to growing expectations of a lower terminal RBA rate.
For these reasons, the risk of a recession in AU in 2023 remains a low probability and the risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside, in our view. The RBA’s restrained approach, sustained strength in the labour market and a continued boost from a record term of trade make an economic contraction less likely than peers. We do not have cuts in our profile.
Waiting for the wave
The main risk reflected in market pricing and the RBA’s published commentary is that households have not yet sustained the full impact of rate hikes. We have pencilled in hikes until May 2023 just before the mortgage rate reset wave accelerates in mid-2023. The maturity profile of fixed-rate mortgages taken out when lending rates were as low as 2% suggests the “cliff” may have traction. The line of questioning at Governor Lowe’s attendance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee and public speeches from the RBA confirm that fixed-rate mortgage resets are at the front of their minds when they consider risks to the economy.
Yet Australia continues to enjoy meaningful protection from downside risks, in our view. A positive terms-of-trade shock that has reduced Australian Government funding requirements also means the challenges of housing headwinds should be easy for policymakers to counteract should we see signs of household distress in 2023. At the same time, a long period of low unemployment is likely to generate higher wages and partly offset the dampening effect of rising loan payments on consumer demand, reducing the risk of a housing-led downturn. On the upside, the prospects of a substantial shift away from COVID Zero policies in China continue to gather pace as a steady stream of announcements suggest the country is like to gradually reopen in 2023. The Chinese reopening could boost Australian GDP and increase the scope for the RBA to tighten rates further.
We see the RBA holding rates at 4.1% from May 2023. A rise in cash rates and signs of economic resilience should mean a flatter curve. We have also maintained a view that the AU 2s10s curve is too steep relative to other developed markets (a positive slope of 40bp for AU government bonds compared to -72 for the US). We continue to like a box flattener (AU steepener vs US flattener) and outright AU curve flatteners.
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THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES ON FOREX MARKETHello again! Interest rates can have a significant impact on the forex market , as they can affect the demand for and supply of different currencies. In general, higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment and increase the demand for a currency, as investors can earn a higher return on their investments. This can lead to an appreciation of the currency in the foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, lower interest rates may discourage foreign investment and reduce the demand for a currency, leading to a depreciation of the currency in the forex market.
Interest rates can also affect the attractiveness of a country's assets, such as stocks and bonds, which can in turn affect the demand for its currency. For example, if a country has high interest rates, its assets may be more attractive to foreign investors, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
In addition to the interest rate level, the direction and pace of change in interest rates can also affect the forex market. If a central bank is expected to increase interest rates in the near future, it may lead to an appreciation of the currency, as investors anticipate higher returns on their investments. On the other hand, if a central bank is expected to lower interest rates, it may lead to a depreciation of the currency.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the forex market is complex and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and global market conditions.
TBT Ultrashort Treasuries Ready to ReverseFrom the chart, the uptrend from the market top November 2021 peaked and reversed from
a double top. Now on the downtrend , it has hit the Fib 0.5 level of the retracement.
I look for a reversal to the upside now as that Fib level is tested and holding.
I will play this with some call option contracts with an expiration in 4 weeks.
US10Y Critical point, break or hold on the Channel bottom!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield ( US10Y ) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 20 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price is exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where the last bottom was priced. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low and it remains to be seen if the price reacts with a bounce. So far the move is much weaker than in August.
In order to extend our selling we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (OCtober 21 High) Resistance.
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$USDNOK - Now we wait...$USDNOK - Now we wait...
Another week for us traders to take advantage of
Excellent set up for usdnok - now we wait for a break to either direction we do have key fundamental data this week. Will Powell be as before dovish or will he hawkish as well as that softer cpi coming our way expected and then taking into consideration the technical view of usdnok it's not bad R/R either direction.
Trade Journal
Morning Update: 30Y Bond Yield This chart appears pretty well behaved. This decline in yield has come right into the .382% retracement area of wave 3 for a wave 4 bottom. If the 30Y bond continues to behave...yields are headed above 5%. To some of you reading this...that may sound like a stretch.
To those who like correlations...I wonder what happens to stocks if this plays out?
#whoisrightBonds_or_Stocks?
Best to all,
Chris
Stock-bond correlation and 60/40 portfolio are at crossroadsIn 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment.
The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in a decade. The blue area in chart above shows the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ( BND ) ETF, which currently stands at 0.89.
The positive stock-bond correlation had typically worked when the two assets climbed upward together in the post-GFC decade, but in this new environment, it did the opposite and for a longer time than in 2008 and 2020.
Similar to 2008-2009, a 60/40 portfolio of global equities and bonds saw a maximum drawdown of 25% this year, but lasted more.
The fall from peak to trough of the 60/40 portfolio lasted 252 days between June 2008 and March 2009, just 35 days between February and March 2020, and 336 days in 2022, making it the longest 60/40 bear market in the past two decades.
60/40 portfolio and its drawdowns – 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) & 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND )
As we approach the final FOMC meeting of 2022, the future of bonds and stocks is at a crossroads, and a decoupling between the two assets may occur, making the 60/40 portfolio diversification plan more effective moving into 2023.
If the Fed signals that the end of the hike cycle is nearing and adopts a more dovish stance on inflation, both stocks and bonds will benefit from here.
If the Fed indicates that interest rates will continue to increase and that the window for a soft landing is narrowing, bonds will outperform stocks. However, equities will receive a boost when the recession comes and the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates.
The downside risk of this approach is an excessive tightening of interest rates by the Fed, which might increase bond yields even more (and cause prices to drop) and further devalue equity markets, extending the bear market for the 60/40 portfolio.
The 2023 trader playbook - the 5 biggest themes for the yearWith next week’s US CPI print and FOMC meeting offering the potential for further market volatility, it feels like these landmines are a fitting end to an incredibly eventful 2022.
We look back at the big themes that have driven cross-asset volatility and the conditions through which we’ve all had to adapt our trading – these include persistently high inflation, a worrying spike in the cost of living and aggressive rate hikes – yet resilient growth. We can also look at more regional-focused issues – a UK gilt tantrum driven by the Truss govt’s unfunded mini-budget, the invasion of Ukraine, the MOF/BoJ intervening to buy JPY and China’s Covid Zero policy.
The culmination of these factors created huge cross-asset volatility, decade-long market regime changes and lasting trending conditions.
Looking into 2023
Markets live in the future, and we look forward to the key themes that could cause volatility throughout 2023 – what’s important is not just to fully note these macro factors, but to understand the trigger points that offer a higher conviction of when to express the themes – taking this further, knowing the markets/instruments and strategies to express the theme is obviously advantageous.
These themes could alter market volatility, range expansion and market structure - so regardless of whether you’re purely automated or discretionary, it can pay to be aware.
While there are many more, these are five potential themes that I am looking at closely for 2023 that if triggered would affect the markets we trade.
1 - High inflation worries morph into growth concerns and a higher probability of a recession
US and global inflation in decline
• Market pricing (i.e. the inflation ‘fixings’ market) of future inflation shows US CPI inflation expected to fall to around 3% by year-end
• US M2 money supply has fallen from 26% to 1.3% - US headline CPI typically lags by 16 months
• Manufacturing PMI delivery-lead times and supply chain data suggest inflation falls hard in 2023
• Unit labour costs falling to 2.1%
Growth – while the consensus from economists is that the US economy narrowly avoids a recession, and EPS expectations have not been revised down to reflect recessionary conditions - the markets see a higher probability of this outcome – I back the markets, where we see:
• All parts of the US yield curve are inverted – US 2s vs 10s are the most inverted since 1981
• The US leading index (measures 10 key economic indicators) has turned negative and falling fast – this has an exemplary record of predicting US recessions
• Comments from the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and BoA warning of tougher times ahead
Themes to trade as we price in a recession
• Consensus EPS expectations are cut by around 20% (from the highs), in turn, lifting PE multiples – traders will assess the trade-off between earnings downgrades vs a lower discount rate
• Steeper yield curves are a trigger – while now is not the time to put on curve steepeners, when short-dated US Treasury bond yields do fall/outperform, we’ll see a steeper yield curve – this could be the trigger for a sharp equity rally, led by financials
• As the US data deteriorates, we will likely see equity market drawdown, US treasury buying and selling of risk FX - it’s when central bankers acknowledge that growth is a greater concern the market will feel validated in its pricing of rate cuts – it’s here we see a risk rebound, broad USD selling and housing + lumber outperforming
• As bond yields fall, we should see solid outperformance from the JPY and CHF and EM assets
• USD initially works selectively vs global FX, but then reverses as conviction of the Fed cutting impacts and traders look ahead to a trough in the global growth slowdown
• Gold and silver rally hard as a hedge vs recession risk
2 - Central bank policy – assessing the potential for rate cuts
• The base case is rate hikes finish in Q1 23, followed by a pause – we then explore the possibility of rate cuts through Q4 23 – the Fed are clearly data dependent, so trends in the US (and global) data through Q2 will be key to markets
• Since 1995 there have been five occasions when the Fed has moved from hikes to rate cuts – the average time it takes to play out is 10.6 months (the longest period being 18 months, the shortest being 5 months)
• G7 balance sheet reduction and liquidity drain - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a big unknown. Federal Reserve liabilities are expected to fall towards $2.5t, a level where the market is concerned about the scarcity of reserves – traders will start to pay attention to the Fed funds effective – interest earned on excess reserves (IOER) spread for signs of scarcity and concerns that the repo market may be impacted and need support.
• It’s not just the Fed but the ECB and BoE (and others) will be reducing their balance sheets.
3 - China reopening and China's market outperformance
We’ve already seen a plethora of measures announced and Chinese markets have rallied hard – China is the elephant in the room when it comes to the global growth outlook for 2023 – a weak 1H23 seems likely but this will then followed by far stronger growth in 2H23 – after a poor 2022, Chinese assets could really outperform in 2023
• Long HK50 / short NAS100 could be a trade to look at if markets de-risk on a higher probability of a US recession
4 - BoJ policy recalibration – time for the JPY to fly
BoJ chief Kuroda steps down in April but there are already plans for a review of BoJ policy – it feels inevitable that we’ll see a 25bp lift to the BoJ’s YCC target to 50bp – we’ve already seen signs that Japanese banks/pension funds are moving capital back to Japan to get a more compelling return in the JGB market – but could a major policy change cause tremors in global bond markets and promote significant inflows into the JPY?
5 - Politics & Geopolitics – great for volatility, bad for humanity
Obviously one of the most important issues in 2022, not just for markets but humanity - always a hard one for traders to price risk around
• China/Taiwan – unlikely to be a 2023 story (hopefully not at all) but one that will come into the headlines periodically
• US and European/China relations
• Russia/Ukraine – could we hear more constructive signs of a ceasefire?
• Russia vs NATO – Putin has already suggested that the risk of a nuclear war has been rising – obviously if this really escalates it has the premise to dominate markets
• Given the divided Congress, could we see the US debt ceiling become a market concern?
Good luck to all
Dollar finding weakness! Below 200-SMAThe US dollar has seen a clear rejection from its 200 day SMA. Does this mean we might see S&P500 go back to the 4000 level and retest its 200-day SMA and the downward trend line? That is within the realm of possibilities, and cannot be discounted. But you know what has been performing phenomenally? BONDS! Both corporate and government bonds have been aggressively pushing higher, and no one was talking about this. Bonds love lowering yields! And wall street sniffs it out faster than anyone else, and builds a position accordingly. Will we see Bonds go higher? Let me know in the comments..
US02Y Showing the way to stock market recoveryThe US02Y has just completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a technical formation found on tops. The very same formation was last seen in October - December 2018 and caused a massive long-term drop on the US02Y. Check also the identical 1D RSI sequences leading to the top with Channel Down patterns.
The US02Y peak was translated into a fall on inflation (orange trend-line) and the stock market (S&P500 blue trend-line) immediately reacted. We've already seen a strong stock rally these past two months, but so far seems counter-trend.
Do you think the Fed and the CPI report next week can help sustain it?
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US10Y Time for it to decide the long term trendThe US10Y is approaching the Higher Lows support of the 2022 bullish trend. Holding it can make the price rebound back to the 1D MA50 (blue line) and the dashed line of its growth zone at least.
A break below it and in particular the 1D MA200 (orange line) can turn the trend bearish long term to the 1W MA100 (red line).
The 1D RSI is on its (oversold) Support level as well.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Interest Rate Futures and the First Cash Settled ContractCME: Eurodollar Futures ( CME:GE1! ), CBOT: Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! )
This is the second installment of the Holidays series “Celebrating 50 Years of Financial Futures.”
Before 1970, commercial banks did business by accepting short-term deposits at low regulated rates and offering longer-term business and personal loans at higher rates.
Double-digit inflation changed all that. Federal Reserve eliminated interest rate ceilings on time deposits under 3 months in 1970, and on those over 3 months in 1973. Banks incurred huge loss from a negative spread with deposit rate higher than loan rate.
Fast forward to 2022, we find ourselves in a high inflation and an inverted yield-curve environment again. The overnight Fed Funds rate (4.00%) is nearly 500 basis points higher than the 10-Year Treasury Note (T-Note) yield (3.51%) as of December 4th.
Rising interest rates increase the financing cost from businesses to households alike. The Fed’s six consecutive rate hikes from March to November 2022 contributed to significant drawdown in the value of stocks, bonds, and commodities.
If you bought $100,000 of Treasury bonds (T-bonds) in January, its market value could drop as much as 30% with bond yield jumping to 3.5% from 1.5%. If you owe $10,000 in credit card debt, monthly interest rate charge could run up to 25% a year from 15%.
Like foreign exchange, interest rate is not a physical commodity. It is a right to holders of an interest-bearing product, and a liability to its issuer. The above examples show that both buyer and seller could have large financial exposure to changes in interest rates.
To hedge interest rate risks, futures contracts were invented in Chicago futures markets, namely, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
CBOT Ginnie Mae Futures
Government National Mortgage Association is a US government supported entity within the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The nickname “Ginnie Mae” come from its acronym GNMA.
GNMA issues Ginnie Mae certificates, a type of mortgage-backed passthrough securities. Investors receive interest and principal payments from a large pool of mortgage loans. Since timely payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, Ginnie Mae bonds are considered default risk free and have an AAA credit rating.
Although they are free from default risk, holders of Ginnie Mae bonds are exposed to interest rate risk, as bond price moves inversely with bond yield. Sensing the need from savings and loans, mortgage bankers, and dealers of mortgage-backed securities, CBOT launched Ginnie Mae Bond Futures in October 1975.
This was the first time a futures contract was based on an interest-bearing instrument. At contract expiration, futures buyers would receive actual Ginnie Mae bonds from futures sellers. While the Ginnie Mae contract has since delisted, it paved the way for the successful launches of other interest rate futures contracts in the 1970s and 1980s.
CME Treasury Bill Futures
Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term securities issued by the US Treasury to help finance the spending of the federal government. New T-bills with maturities of thirteen, twenty-six, and fifty-two weeks are issued on a regular basis. The secondary market for T-bills is active, making them among the most liquid of money market instruments.
In May 1972, the International Monetary Market (IMM) division of the CME launched foreign exchange futures, the first financial futures contract. In January 1976, the IMM listed futures contract on 90-day (13-week) T-bills. It was the first futures contract for a money market instrument. Nobel laureate Milton Friedman rang the opening bell on T-Bill Futures launch day.
Upon maturity, seller is required to deliver T-bills with a $1 million face value and thirteen weeks left to maturity. Contracts for delivery in March, June, September, and December are listed. At any one time, contracts for eight different delivery dates are traded.
T-bills do not pay explicit interest. Instead, they are sold at a discount to redemption value. The difference between the two prices determines the interest earned by a buyer. T-bill yields are quoted on a discount basis. Futures contracts are quoted on an index devised by the IMM, by subtracting the discount yield from 100. Index values move in the same direction as T-bill price. A rise in the index means that the price of a future delivered T-bill has risen. The formula for calculating the discount yield is:
Discount Yield = ((Face Value - Purchase Price) / Face Value) X (360 / Days to Maturity)
CBOT Treasury Bond Futures
In August 1977, CBOT launched futures contracts on the T-Bonds.
At the time, the birth of T-bond futures hardly seemed like a breakthrough. Financial futures were still in their infancy. Soybeans and corn were king in the CBOT trading pit.
But all that changed in October 1979 when the Fed moved to strangle runaway inflation with a revised credit policy. The Saturday night massacre, as it was dubbed, ended decades of interest-rate stability. Interest rates bounced like a Ping Pong, affected by money supply, world events and inflation. Trading of T-Bond futures took off like a rocket.
In addition to the traditional T-Bond futures (ZB) with 15-year maturity, CBOT also lists a 20-Yr T-Bond futures (TWE) and an Ultra T-Bond (UB) with 30-year maturity. In the Mid-curve, the T-Note suite includes 2-Yr Note (ZT), 3-Yr Note (Z3), 5-Yr Note (ZF), 10-Yr Note (ZN), and Ultra 10-Yr T-Note (TN).
On December 2, 2022, daily volume of the first T-Bond futures was 388,370 contracts, while open interest reached 1,170,800 contracts. Daily volume of all CME Group interest rates futures and options contracts (IR) reached 13,786,454 lots, contributing to 54.1% of Exchange total. IR open interest was 78,244,297 lots, representing 70.4% of Exchange total.
Cash Settlement Comes to Futures Market
Up until now, futures contracts were settled by physical delivery of the underlying commodities.
• Buyer of 1 CME Live Cattle may pick up 35 cows (40,000 pounds) from Union Stockyard in Chicago southside or take delivery at a cattle auction in Wyoming.
• Seller of 1 CBOT Soybean contract would ship 5,000 bushels of the grain to a licensed grain elevator in Illinois, Iowa, or Kansas.
• For CME Pork Bellies, settlement may involve title changes of warehouse receipt from seller to buyer for 40,000 pounds of the frozen meat in a cold storage.
Even financial futures required physical delivery at that time.
• For British Pound/USD contract, it is £62,500 in pound sterling.
• For Ginnie Mae contract, it is $10 million worth of Ginnie Mae certificate.
• T-Bond futures calls for delivery of treasury bonds with face value of $100,000 and maturity of no less than 15 years.
As we discussed in “The Bogeyman in Financial Contracts”, there is inherent risk in the physical delivery mechanism. No matter how robust its original design is, industry evolution could outgrow capacity, rendering delivery failure under extreme market conditions.
In December 1981, CME launched Eurodollar futures, the first contract with cash settlement feature. Cash settlement alone can be viewed as a financial revolution. Why?
• It significantly reduces transaction cost, which in turn enhances the risk transfer or hedging function in futures.
• It allows non-commercial users to participate in futures. Broader participation improves liquidity, and the price discovery as well as risk management functions.
CME Eurodollar Futures
Eurodollars are dollar-deposits held with banks outside of the US. There are two types of Eurodollar deposits: nontransferable time deposits and certificates of deposit (CDs). Time deposits have maturities ranging from 1 day to 5 years, with 3 months being the most common. Eurodollar CDs are also commonly issued with maturities under a year.
Technically, buyer of Eurodollar future contract is required to place $1,000,000 in a 3-month Eurodollar time deposit paying the contracted interest rate on maturity date. However, this exists only in principle and is called a “Notional Value”. Cash settlement means that actual physical delivery never takes place; instead, any net changes in the value of the contract at maturity are settled in cash on the basis of spot market Eurodollar rates.
Unlike T-bills, Eurodollar deposits, the underlying of Eurodollar futures, pay explicit interest. The interest paid on such deposit is termed an add-on yield because the depositor receives the face amount plus an explicit interest payment when the deposit matures. In the case of Eurodollar, the add-on yield is the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), which is the interest rate at which major international banks offer to place Eurodollar deposits with one another. Like other money market rates, LIBOR is an annualized rate based on a 360-day year. Price quotations for Eurodollar futures are based on the IMM Eurodollar futures price index, which is is 100 minus the LIBOR.
In the following four decades, all financial futures are designed with cash settlement. Eurodollar futures paves the way for equity index futures, which were launched in February 1982 at Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) and April 1982 at CME.
Without cash settlement, can you imagine how to deliver 500 different stocks on a market-weighted basis for the S&P 500 futures? Or 2,000 stocks for the Russell 2000?
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
short term bullish but forming head and shoulders short set upbearish head and shoulders pattern forming. the rise of the right shoulder is short term bullish. this is to test the previous resistances of Elliott Wave #3, and to test the previous support levels of (A) and (C)...I'm stalking a short entry near or slightly above those levels. Also goes with my theory of favoring short term corporate bonds. I think they are undervalued.