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T-bonds

Very close to Yield Curve Inversion, AGAINAfter #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, TVC:TNX has a higher right shoulder. Further analysis: We are seeing a Negative Divergence on $DJI. Volume has been lessening as the days go by. TVC:RUT Small Caps are LOWER and trading in a tightening range.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US10Y Look for a 1D MA50 rejection.A month ago (August 21, see chart below) we argued why the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) would go lower with the Fed having no choice but the cut the Interest Rates: Well the Fed did it and cut the rates not just by -0.25% but -0.50%, initiating the new cut Cycle. Now let's look at the US10Y's price action on a smaller time-frame, namely the 1D. As you can see the pattern is a double Channel Down, with the price trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 03 2024. That is the current Resistance and until it breaks (1D candle closing above it), we should be looking every time for a sell near it. Assuming the Bearish Legs of the diverging (dotted) Channel Down are symmetrical like those of May and June, our Target is 3.450%, representing a -10.50% decline (same as August's Bearish Leg). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
TOP 20 TRADING PATTERNS [cheat sheet]Hey here is Technical Patterns cheat sheet for traders. 🖨 Every trader must print this cheatsheet and keep it on the desk 👍 🖼 Printable picture below (Right click > Save Image As…) In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results. As such it has been described by many academics as pseudoscience. Fundamental analysts examine earnings, dividends, assets, quality, ratio, new products, research and the like. Technicians employ many methods, tools and techniques as well, one of which is the use of charts. Using charts, technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and market trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. Technicians using charts search for archetypal price chart patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top/bottom reversal patterns, study technical indicators, moving averages and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns. Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation. Technicians also look for relationships between price/volume indices and market indicators. Examples include the moving average, relative strength index and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility) and put/call ratios with price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc. There are many techniques in technical analysis. Adherents of different techniques (for example: Candlestick analysis, the oldest form of technical analysis developed by a Japanese grain trader; Harmonics; Dow theory; and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one technique. Some technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern(s) a particular instrument reflects at a given time and what the interpretation of that pattern should be. Others employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and interpretation. Contrasting with technical analysis is fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors. Uncovering the trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, although neither technical nor fundamental indicators are perfect. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make trading decisions. Best regards Artem Shevelev
Editors' picks
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
238
Lower Rates Expected by 9/27/24Ahead of the Fed meeting Wednesday the market was pretty much 50/50 split on whether the fed funds rate would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. After the 50bps announcement the counter intuitive move occurred, which was rates began rising, but this should have been a surprise. This was as straight forward "buy the rumor, sell the news" gets. Today however it appears the rates attempted to rally past 3.76% but failed. 3.76% happens to be the 50% fib level from the recent highs to lows and now we'll look to see the 10-yr break below 3.70 for a sustained move lower. Marking this as a "Long Investment Idea" since lower rates imply higher bond prices, don't be fooled by the rate chart.
TVC:US10YLong
by jpoma13
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
Is Gold signalling a crisis? Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing. Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few. - Fed Rate Cut - Geo political tension - Weak Fiat currencies - Currency Crisis - Weakening economies In a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start trimming. Gold usually goes through a multi month correction but this could also spill into other asset classes. As the steepening effect on the 10y/2y finally was confirmed today, large macro implications could follow and this is exactly what Gold confirmed this week.
TVC:GOLD
by Trading-Capital
How I Use Multi Timeframe Analysis to Capture LARGE Price SwingsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. TUTORIAL: Today, I demonstrate the thought process and mechanical steps I take when trading my Multi-Timeframe strategy. We take a look at US Treasuries, which have offers a classic lesson in how to apply this approach. As you will see, throughout the year, this approach took some losses prior to getting involved in the "real" move which we anticipated. No strategy is perfect, and I do not purport this to be perfect. It is a rules based and effective way to read price. This strategy is great for people who don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. I would classify this more as an "investing" strategy when utilizing the 12M-2W-12H timeframe. If you have questions about anything in this video, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you have all had a great week so far. Good Luck & Good Trading.
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZF1!Education
by Tradius_Trades
3
Inverse Head & Shoulders $TLT ETF Weekly ChartInverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government bonds. 💵 However, there's resistance at the $100 level— NASDAQ:TLT needs to break this level before heading higher. 📈🚀 #USTreasury #Bonds #FixedIncome #Investing #Finance NASDAQ:TLT #RateCuts #MarketTrends #ETF
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
Yield Curve Inversion: A Warning Sign You Can't IgnoreThe yield curve, which shows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds (US10Y-US02Y). In normal market conditions, this number should be positive because the interest that investors require on 10Y bonds is higher than the interest required on 2Y bonds. Interest is a value of risk perception. Higher risk of default means higher required interest on bonds. As seen on the chart, the moment that the yield-curve "un-inverts" (yellow circles) is a critical market indicator that can often predict upcoming recessions. In the last 35 years, the un-inversion has always preceded a dump in stock prices and a recession. Seeing this chart, it's not too far-fetched to assume that the world will go into a recession at some point in the next 1-2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by FieryTrading
4
US10Y going lower with the Fed having no choice but to cut.Almost 10 months ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today's revisit to this pattern shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have already started to form a Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100% as its first Target, on the Fed's first wave of rate cutting and gradually hit the lower Fib targets as the rates stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence of US10Y falling when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
German Bund Is On The Rise, So As EURUSD PairWe talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair. As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also nicely recovering due to a positive correlation and with still bullish Bund, EURUSD can easily see more upside.
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by ew-forecast
Comparing Different Financial MarketsComparing Different Financial Markets In trading, understanding the types of international financial markets is crucial. This article offers a comprehensive market comparison of the stock, forex, commodity, crypto* and bond arenas. You’ll learn the importance of these financial markets and what it takes to navigate each one effectively. Stock Market The stock market is a financial marketplace where traders and investors can buy and sell shares of publicly traded companies. By purchasing a stock, an investor essentially owns a slice of the company, and their investment's value moves in tandem with the company's performance. - Risk: Stocks can be volatile, subject to market sentiment, economic indicators, and company performance. Risk varies widely among different types of stocks. - Income Potential: Day traders aim for short-term gains, while long-term investors often seek stocks that offer dividends or high growth potential. - Knowledge: A solid understanding of market trends, company fundamentals, and technical indicators is beneficial for effective trading. - Liquidity: Most stocks, especially those listed on major exchanges, have high liquidity, allowing for quick entry and exit. - Costs and Fees: Costs can include brokerage commissions, although many online platforms now offer zero-commission trading. - Trading Hours: Generally restricted to weekdays, opening and closing at set times, with after-hours trading being possible but less liquid. Forex Market The forex market is the global marketplace for buying and selling currencies. Traders pair two currencies, like EUR/USD, and profit from the fluctuations in exchange rates. - Risk: Forex trading can be highly volatile and is considered riskier than stock trading, influenced by geopolitical events, interest rates, and economic data. - Income Potential: High leverage can amplify gains but also increase risk. Many traders seek to profit from short-term fluctuations. - Knowledge: Understanding of macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical events, and technical analysis can be crucial for success. - Liquidity: Extremely high, given the 24/5 operation of the Forex market. - Costs and Fees: Typically lower than other markets, often involving spreads rather than direct commissions. - Trading Hours: Operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, allowing for flexibility in trading times. Commodity Market The commodity market is one of the types of international financial markets where physical or virtual assets like gold, oil, or agricultural products are traded. These markets often act as a gauge for supply and demand conditions globally. - Risk: Commodities can be quite volatile, influenced by global events, natural disasters, and political instability. Traders often hedge against other market risks by investing in commodities. - Income Potential: Gains can be substantial but are also subject to dramatic shifts based on the factors mentioned above. - Knowledge: Understanding of global economic indicators, supply and demand factors, and geopolitical events is critical. - Liquidity: Varies widely depending on the commodity; for example, gold and oil are highly liquid. - Costs and Fees: This can include brokerage commissions, futures contract fees, and costs associated with physical storage for some commodities. - Trading Hours: Vary by commodity and exchange, but many have extended hours due to global demand. Cryptocurrency Market* The cryptocurrency market is a decentralised digital asset market that includes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various tokens. It's the newest and one of the most rapidly evolving financial markets. - Risk: Extremely volatile, with prices subject to rapid fluctuations, sometimes within minutes. Regulatory concerns add another layer of risk. - Income Potential: High potential for both short-term and long-term gains, but also significant risk of loss. - Knowledge: Understanding of blockchain technology, market sentiment, and technical analysis is often crucial. Familiarity with regulation is also beneficial. - Liquidity: Generally high for well-known cryptocurrencies but can be low for lesser-known tokens and coins. - Costs and Fees: Vary by platform and may include transaction fees, deposit/withdrawal fees, and "gas" fees for certain types of transactions. - Trading Hours: Operates 24/7, allowing for ongoing trading and the chance to react to market news or events. You can head over to FXOpen's free TickTrader platform to explore the above-mentioned markets for CFD trading in real-time. Bond Market The bond market is a segment of the financial market where debt securities are issued and traded. Unlike the stock market, which is a part of the capital market, the bond market focuses on long-term debt instruments. This highlights the difference between capital markets and financial markets. - Risk: Generally considered lower risk compared to stocks and commodities, although risk can vary depending on the issuer's creditworthiness. - Income Potential: Lower yield compared to more volatile markets, but often offers more stable returns through interest payments. - Knowledge: Understanding of interest rates, yield curves, and credit ratings is essential for bond trading. - Liquidity: Varies depending on the type of bond; government bonds are usually highly liquid, while corporate bonds can be less so. - Costs and Fees: Transaction costs are generally built into the bond's price, but some brokers may charge commissions. - Trading Hours: Primarily traded over-the-counter (OTC), with some bonds available on exchanges. Trading hours can vary but are generally regular business hours. The Bottom Line In summary, the diverse features of financial markets offer traders a range of opportunities, from stocks and commodities to cryptocurrencies* and bonds. Armed with this knowledge, you're now equipped to navigate the markets with confidence. Want to put these insights into action? Consider opening an FXOpen account to kickstart your trading adventure. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Editors' picks
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FXOpen
4
Why are Interest rates falling? Time to buy? We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates. Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom. Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation? Is the bond market pricing in a recession? I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness. Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper. This drives the disinflationary narrative. I think its to early to tell whether this decline is from demand or global weakness.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
US 2-Year T-NoteHey Traders We have US 2-Year T-Note, all my weekly fundamentals are showing a nice drop from from supply zone bounced out and is looking strong to sell down, I will be waiting for a pullback to my sell limit marked off on chart. When I am lining up a set up I always use the daily TF to place a sell limit or buy limit from supply zone or demand zone. Please like comment and follow cheers This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
2Short
by Costy13
4