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Fundamental & Technical | BTC📉Bitcoin is currently testing a decisive resistance line (Zone 2). Current existing factors influencing financial markets: * Decreasing investors confidence 1. The continuance of recession-indicating economic reports - A recession is expected (lastest FED + inflation rate reports) 2. Further war escalations - Russia defaulting, economic allies are changing and higher % of GDP devoted in military sector. 3. Political uncertainty - Boris Johnson resigning(UK)... 4. Natural diseases + disasters - Covid 3rd/4th waves, extreme hot weather 1. FED Interest Rate decision on to be posted @ 18:00 on 2022-07-27. Current inflation reads at 9.1 (2022-07-13), beating the consensus (expected) inflation (8.8). There is currently a lot of uncertainty over financial asset valuation. Worse economic statistics than predicted will likely imply our volatile digital assets will drop heavily once the interest rate decision is out(and if its hawkish). 2. Japan warns over Chinese and Russian increasing cooperation (economic & military). Rising concerns for investors: - Increasing number of involved countries (alliances) - Lasting severity of war donations - Rising war spending (2.5% of total GDP increase in UK) 3. Depending on the UK's new PM outcome, the country's fiscal(tax) policies may be on each extreme. The candidates: * Rishi Sunak vowing to increase taxes * Penny Mordaunt would raise income tax thresholds for basic and middle-income earners. (Lowering tax revenue) * Foreign Secretary Liz Truss mentions creating ''low tax, low regulation zones''. (Lowering tax rates) 4. Covid + Heat waves - Extreme heat waves in Europe affecting productivity, trade, currency valuations and etc. - Currently, Covid waves have a greater impact on LEDCs. Corruption, poor infrastructure, worse weather control(worsening symptoms severity) and fake vaccine passports may all contribute towards this fact. Thereby, I believe a drop will occur to satisfy the market changes within the zone 2. Risk/rewards ratio: 3.23 Open Short: 265.75M Take Profit: 173.17M Stop Loss: 293.74 Note: the graph is BTC/Gold. I will be posting an explanation for it's utility Thanks for your time! San:)
CRYPTOCAP:BTCShort
by Sanzhar_m
Double bottom confirmed on the NasdaqA simple reversal trade setup on the Nasdaq. The tech index confirmed a double bottom pattern breakout on November 11th, the day after an epic rally which is among the best days of 2022. The breakout has not seen any momentum as different Fed heads have come out saying different things, and some geopolitical tensions. The markets are still determining if the Fed will slow down on rate hikes and if inflation will slow down. These two things are a topic for a different post. Let's talk about the chart we see. The Nasdaq saw buyers jump in right at the retest zone of the breakout pattern. This is just typical of what we expect from a breakout trade. Traders can either enter now and place their stops below the breakout zone, or await for the recent highs of 11,850 to be taken out before jumping in long. The latter is the more safer way to play and increases your probability of success as it confirms a higher low. Since trading is a business of probabilities, this is a very prudent way to play the trade. There are also TWO other charts which are pointing at higher markets: First, the US 10 year yield is the chart you must be watching to determine where stocks are going. We have a reversal pattern on this, and as yields drop, stock markets rise. Of course, a move into bonds needs to be assessed properly. We have seen a case where the 10 year dropped because of fear (the Poland-Ukraine missile issue). But generally, as yields drop, it is the market pricing in the Fed being less hawkish and even pausing rate hikes soon. Secondly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) heading lower is a positive sign for markets for the same reason as above. A less hawkish Fed. The DXY also broke down and we are awaiting our first lower high. Both of these continuing lower means a higher chance that stock markets, and yes the Nasdaq, continue their reversal recovery. But of course, the Fed in December could put a major halt to this move.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Uncharted-FX
1
Go long stocks short 10y bond yieldLook at where the 10y yield is currently trading - its right above its 200 period moving average at major resistance. This is yet another indicator to me that stocks have bottomed and inflation will start to fall away this year. Bond yields should fall away again as we move through the year. I bought heavily into stocks last week, amazon at $2050, Netflix at $170, Meta at $189, Snap at $22 plus so many others. This bond chart really shows me that things are due for a major reverse now and if you caught my dollar (DXY) short post on Friday you are already massively in profit in that short too. There are so many great opportunities now to add to stocks on dips and keep shorting the dollar (provided we see a nice steady drop in CPI figures each month for the rest of the year).
TVC:US10YShort
by breakoutfakeout
8
TLT 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View TLT ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Trade View 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 99.00 Technicals Primary support is 99.00 Primary upside objective 102.85 Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 101.50 Failure below 99.00 opens a test of 97.90 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish Institutional Insights According to analysts at Goldman Sachs ‘ Based on our valuation-adjusted estimates of preliminary data from the US Treasury ,foreign investors net purchased long-term US securities in September. Foreigninvestors net purchased long-term Treasuries and US equities, and net sold long-term US agency securities and corporate bonds. Private sector investors drove flows across asset classes.Japan was the largest net seller of long-term Treasuries in September, on our valuation-adjusted estimates, as the Ministry of Finance Intervened in foreignexchange markets to support the Yen for the first time in 24 years. Our estimates suggest that this was the largest one-month net sale of long-term Treasuries byJapanese investors since the Treasury’s securities holdings data began in 2012(although March 2022 came close). Belgium was the largest net buyer of long-termTreasuries at the country level. At the regional level, Europe and Latin America netpurchased long-term USTs while Asia was a net seller’
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Tickmill
US10Y Is more selling pressure ahead?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) confirmed our huge Bearish Divergence spotted on our October 25 analysis and started the first pull-back since July: The price is now below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 19 and today is testing it as a Resistance. A double candle close above the 1D MA50, restores the bullish trend towards the October 21 High. Failure to establish two 1D candle closings above it, should most likely extend the selling pressure towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was where the pull-backs of March 07 and November 09 2021 found Support. A closing below it targets the final long-term Support of 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As you see on the chart, that still wouldn't change the long-term bullish trend on the US10Y as it would hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (green). On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200, would constitute a long-term trend change to bearish and target first the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
TLT 99.19 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View TLT Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Trade View 99.19 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 97.90 Technicals Primary support is 97.90 Primary upside objective 101.13 Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 99.50 Failure below 97.90 opens a test of 96.90 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1695-00 (414M), 1.1800 (319M) Institutional Insights According to analysts at Goldman Sachs ‘ Inflation miss-fueled bond rally likely overdone.Through the week, Fedcommentary has suggested a strong preference to slow down the pace of hiking. The inflation miss—October core CPI rose 0.27% month-over-month,below expectations, with services inflation slowing somewhat more than our economists’ projections—makes the step down at the upcoming FOMC meeting more likely, though Fed speakers appear to have been laying the groundwork fora slower pace irrespective of realized economic data. Markets repriced FOMCOIS beyond this December even more aggressively, both bringing the peak rate back below 5% and pricing additional easing beyond the (lowered) peak. While The details of the CPI report suggest there could be some downside risk to our current projected CPI path, we do not believe this materially changes the risks of hike cycle extension. Outside of unanticipated activity weakness (that is as yet not visible), we see a fundamental inconsistency in this price action. While a deepening of forward curve inversion is indeed appropriate when anticipating a recession, given the underlying strength of the economy, we believe the Fed will need to raise rates above current peak pricing for that to occur; a higher terminal rate, in turn, is more likely if inflation remains uncomfortably high. Either Combination—a higher terminal rate, but current levels of inversion, or the current terminal rate, but less deep inversion—argues for both higher end-2023 forward rates a higher average level of rates over the next two years. In case of the former, the cuts being priced offset the hikes earlier in the year, leaving net Fed pricing for 2023 one of the least aggressive among G10’
NASDAQ:TLT
by Tickmill
2
GOLD and Bond Yields. Are they starting to close the gap?Many may wonder what is the main driving force behind Gold's recent rally and a first answer would be the strong fall on the Dollar Index, since Gold is valued in USD. This is true but the basic driver leading Gold higher are the Bond Yields, with Bonds being an asset that is in direct competition with Gold, in the same safe haven category that at times is considered more attractive due to offering yields. Bond yields shown in blue on this weekly chart have been rising non-stop since August 2020, which was Gold's technical market peak (excluding the most recent March 2020 which was fundamentally fueled by the Ukraine/ Russi war). Gold's November rise has been the strongest since that time as it is further assisted by the big drop on the US Dollar Index. This isn't yet a confirmed bearish reversal for the bond yields (US10Y) but is close to do so. As you see historically, especially since 2012 (after Gold's previous cyclical top), we had periods that the gap between Gold and yields widened but was always closed. These two negatively correlated assets have diverged by a wide margin since August and it is highly likely that the recent Gold rally/ Yield pullback is the start of their convergence again. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Bond Market Rallies After Inflation DataBonds have soared after yields collapsed due to CPI coming in slightly better than expected. This follows months of consistently high readings fueling a hawkish Fed. With this reading, the markets will likely start to anticipate a pivot to a less hawkish stance. ZN broke through our target of 110'27, and moved a full handle above that to 111'26. It is currently meeting resistance at 111'29 or so, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Watch for ZN to equilibrate as the news gets priced in. If we can keep going then 113'12 is the next target, otherwise, 110'27 should give support.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
TLT Targeting A Test of 99.19Technical & Trade View TLT (ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 93.27 Technicals Primary support is 93.27 Primary pattern objective is 99.19 Acceptance above 95.40 next pattern confirmation Acceptance below 93.20 opens a test of 90.30 20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish Notes US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)' Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Tickmill
US10Y About to drop strongly after the 0.75% hike?The US10Y recently broke below the August Higher Lows trendline and remains below the 4H MA50 since October 25. The bearish divergence that RSI's Lower Lows suggested is identical to the one in April, May. The price patterns are very similar and this was a sell signal that dropped to the 1D MA50 and the Support of the previous Higher Low. We have drawn these levels on the current pattern and that Support is at 3.567 while the 1D MA50 at 3.667. With the 1D RSI still on Lower Highs and Lower Lows and the 1W STOCH RSI on a Sell Cross, we expect the US10Y to hit at least the 1D MA50. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
2