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SPX/US10Y/VIX - you are welcomeHey !! So I've been digging and experimenting with multiple market instrument relations and I have picked those three - SPX, 10 year bonds and VIX as they are the most powerful of all. And I have noticed it has been creating a really clear trend of up and downs - comparing it to SPX it has shown that everytime we have touched the bottom trendline - the market bounced - ONLY in 2008 we have crashed way below - but whoever has bought below that trendline - was happy a few years later. Where are we now? At the lower trendline - a bounce is coded in but I am more than certain, that we will repeat 2008's crash to say the least. We're good for a bounce now, my absolute bottom sits at the bottom trendline. Monitor the breakout! PS : Also - the peak from AUG 2020 was lower in price on SPX than we are now.
SP:SPXLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
1
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618
SPY - Larger ContextLet's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away. Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish. It may, however, be cringeworthy. NQ below 200 W SMA. What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below this most important of level @ 3585.55. Powell - simple... NO CHANGE. ____________________________________________________________________________________ There has been a very orderly decline since The Terrible Tetons. The Monthly Gaps below remain wide open for Business, but - the Gaps above, not so much. It would take an extraordinary/non-binary Event to Fill those for now. We will see what further Fiscal attempts at remedy appear as we approach the Mid-Term Elections. I have November 7th as an important Pivot in Time, unsure as to why. It is however extremely significant as it keeps making appearances in Time on a great many studies. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Risks remain to the downside Short Term. Intermediate-Term will depend on an October Communique from the Market Overlords aka "Behnchods". The Chart is self-explanatory / it illustrates the Risk / Reward clearly. What was most interesting this week was how Wall Street was extremely agile in positioning. Options positioning was done with extreme Velocity / Scope / Scale. Executed perfectly to cause maximum confusion until it was too late for the boat to right itself. They capsized small Specs, repeatedly by loading the woodshed on the Sell in record time. And then, proceeded to close out Open Interest as quickly as it appeared once Payment was secured. Unfortunately, the House continued to press the SELL once they'd squared @ 365.06 on the SPY. The VIX and SPX, ES, NQ, YM - Inverse Gamma Hedging was NOT unwound but pressed quite hard. Gold - Lower for the nearer term, it is a broken trade, it can RT, but it will fail. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Here was the Implied Skew and Range I calculated Thursday for the Friday Dance Mix: Call Skew ATM $ 53,140,489.00 384.94 43.41% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent PUT Skew ATM $ 122,410,005.00 384.94 230.35% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent The Close came off the Pivot after dipping in ever so slightly with 368 for the SPY Close based upon the collapse of Open Interest - closing at 367.95. Wall Street ran the implied range @ 19.88 by 1.79 - a small expansion to 21.67. Close enough, MaxPain had the SPY pinned @ 387... their data sets were off by a very wide margin - an absurd failure on their effort. Here is the Open Data Set: Calls O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 375 179749 2.23 100 $ 40,084,027.00 376 155605 1.77 100 $ 27,542,085.00 377 115204 1.37 100 $ 15,782,948.00 380 175276 0.56 100 $ 9,815,456.00 $ 93,224,516.00 Puts O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 370 218394 0.89 100 $ 19,437,066.00 372 110857 1.43 100 $ 15,852,551.00 373 116496 1.77 100 $ 20,619,792.00 374 165461 2.18 100 $ 36,070,498.00 375 247727 2.64 100 $ 65,399,928.00 376 95994 3.17 100 $ 30,430,098.00 $ 187,809,933.00 In Sum, do not ever trust MaxPain, do your own work. It is garbage. ____________________________________________________________________________________ The important points in the Chart: Notice where the 55 EMA resides. Observe the Shorter duration of EMA crosses. EMA slopes and ST Fib Levels as both are Neodymium Magnets. Gap Fill Extension Range to and from recent Gap Highs to Implied Price Objective. ____________________________________________________________________________________ On to the Fundamentals: AAII Sentiment has crossed 60% Fear Greed is now 24 breaking into the Extreme Fear base camp The Dollar has its sights set on the 121 / 125 region, please observe the EuroDollar Chart. As well, consider the Dollar's response to BOJ interventions. Bonds are showing immense stress in the system. UST Settlement Failures are a disturbing account of reality. Defaults are mounting Globally, (See UK $500B recent Default last week). Yield Inversion simply continues to accelerate in fits and starts. Forwards for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7's are heading to 5%. A 40-Year Freak Out as Yield Inversion has exceeded 50%. FX - Default dislocations throughout the Markets can lead to a near Instant Spike in the Dollar contrary to those who are Bearish on the DXY. Yes, it will indeed collapse - your timing... it's off is all. Bitcoin - SUB 10K IMHO with ease - see Trendline. It is important to remember with EPS ahead - the Mega Caps breaking down... after 3 reductions to lower guidance since August... Sellers are piling into Apple once again, with good reason, it looks horrific. Weakness is everywhere in MegaCaps. Breadth - collapsing TRIN - Horror Show TRIX - Ditto Market Internals - No Nieno ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Contrarian Traders are likely early, hopefully, we see a small RT Monday for Wall Street to reposition. Have a great weekend. if you enjoyed this and found it of value, please give it a thumbs up and do share your thoughts - it is appreciated.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
13
Effective Fed Fuds 2023 - Powell's War on You Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy. 1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs. 2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs. 3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything. _________________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks Powell - Bonds are going to see a Yield Curve Inversion, larger than usual. There is no single condition, what is the term premium on Longer Rates is what matters most. Powell - Housing will see a significant correction, we want the housing market back on a sustainable path. Powell - Equities are overvalued, period, the end. We're committed to "Price Stability" Powell - The US should not return to a Gold Standard - Digital Currency is the path. Powell - We flooded the System with Money (Digitally) by buying Bonds now we are selling them. _________________________________________________________________________________ Forward Rates are indicating he is very serious. I've warned about this for well over a year now - safe to say its come to pass.
CBOT:ZQU2023
by HK_L61
2
A Resistance On US Yields Can Be Supportive For GoldHello traders and investors, today we will talk about US Yields and its relationship with GOLD from Elliott wave perspective. As you may already know, US Yields and gold are in negative correlation. And, as you can see, while US Yields are on the rise, gold is slowing down. However, US Yields can be now finishing a five-wave cycle from the lows, while gold is approaching important support within a three-wave A-B-C correction for a higher degree wave (IV). So, if we are on the right path, then US Yields may start slowing down soon after reaching 10-year high, while gold could continue its uptrend within wave (V). Happy trading and investing! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by ew-forecast
The Bond Market Reacts to the FOMCBonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels to determine support levels further down. Our targets are 115'03 and 115'29 if we get our relief rally.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Post FOMC autopsy - SPX, GOLD, BTC, USOIL, DAX, BONDSI forgot wheat - still looks fine for bulls. All in the video, expecting a pump up today and then further selling to 3700. Sentiment is extremely bearish and so with the technicals I'm watching I'm expecting a rally sooner rather than later. OIL looks good for a nice swing up, Gold as well, Bonds may have a breakout on TLT, but we need to see follow through - one more low there would not be a problem. BTC still holding fib support - to me that's bullish. DAX at strong trendline support with Weekly bull divergence - also looks good for a nice rally. good luck!
XETR:DAX
by the_sunship
3
SPY - Apres Powell & The Double DipJackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview. Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range? That is a suicide, assured. See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day. That Chart is simply NASTY. The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower. It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will become a brushfire. Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes. Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex. Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity. Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022. Technically the Markets do not support Buyers. Liquidity does not support Buyers. Margins do not support Buyers. Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead. Yields do not support Buyers. The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade, I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold. Is there a setup here? No, there is however a great many trades. Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day and Intra-week. It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given. 3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners. NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead. Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead. VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of... arrived. Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times. You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in TLT. Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO will not provide lasting support. Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again. Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension. Sentiment - Terminal. In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not? ________________________________________________________________ Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate. Fixed. Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly, but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday. ___________________________________________________________________ Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into March of 2024. The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on 10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve. My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6% into 2023. It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022. 2019/2020 is the present Base. ___________________________________________________________________ I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention. Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time filling the Gap at 235. ___________________________________________________________________ Good Luck & Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
US Treasure Bonds Yields - Long TermAlright so I've come up with a formula between different US Bond Yields resulting in an oscillator indicator - which successfully signals tops on the stock markets and the bear market after. Based on the area where that oscillator crosses the 0 value (down), we start topping until it comes back up. This period last in average around 1 year and is aligningt +/- with the actual top of SPX. This is a period in which stocks may consolidate or still go up - overall an area of indecission, ending bullish power etc. The actual drop always comes after that period and last up to 800 days- depending on the strength of the previous bull trend - The longer and stronger, the bigger the fall. All such corrections were hitting lower than 0.618 fib level - meaning we will hit 2200 or even 1600 (SPX). Key takeaways: - We're not in an actual Bear Market yet. - We are in consolidation meaning a pump for ath retests is possible until March 2023 +/- - After March 2023 we should start real falls until around March 2025 - SPX Bear Market Target 1600-2200 Sorry and you're welcome!
TVC:US30Y
by TheSecretsOfTrading
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ? When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative. In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels? At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds. Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder). If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels. Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP. Cheers! PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern. All is in FED's hands now.
TVC:US10YShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
US Bond yields rising as the market slows downEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD ▶️ USD/CAD 🔽 XAU ▶️ WTI ▶️ As the US bond yield curve remains inverted, bond yields are fueled by the imminent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.514%, and the 2-year bond yield went higher to 3.934%. Although the stock market did slightly recover from yesterday’s losses, the forex and commodities markets looked quiet otherwise. Major currencies recorded minor gains against the greenback, EUR/USD closed at 1.0022, GBP/USD added 17 pips to 1.1429, and USD/CAD decreased to 1.3248. The latest meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained their monetary tightening policy to control inflation, and expect further rate hikes ahead, the Aussie / Dollar pair mostly traded flat, with a closing price of 0.6727. For now, recession fears have canceled out positive signals in the market. Gold futures were little changed at $1,678.2 an ounce, WTI oil futures briefly dipped to $82.15 per barrel before returning to $85.36. More information on Mitrade website
by Mitrade_official
Why Bonds Might Be Nearing LowsBonds have continued their decline as the markets price in a potentially historic FOMC rate hike this week. Inflation data suggests that the Fed's rate hike trajectory is not really working and inflation is still soaring. On the other hand, multiple indicators suggest that we are in a recession, and the Fed will have to pivot their hawkish stance after this last rate hike. If that is the case, then we expect the bond market to be nearing lows. We have one more technical level before we will have to start using inverse Fibonacci extension levels to predict lows in bonds again, as 113'12 is our last technical level. The Kovach OBV also appears to be leveling off. The next targets from above are 115'03 and 115'29.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
2
Huge Recession WarningWith the 2022 recession ever coming closer, more hints that it’s nearing appear. One of those hints include this graph, which shows the 1 year bond surpassing the 4% mark, and it’s more than any other bond. For the first time in more than 15 years, the 1 year bond surpasses 4%. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 1 month, and it’s still inverted. At any point Black Monday can happen and crash the market. I believe the recession that is about to happen will be worse than even the 2008 recession. It’s more of a depression, not a recession. The 1 year bond didn’t reach as high back then before the recession. TVC:US01Y SP:SPX
TVC:US01YShort
by lorinstocksinvesting
2
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2