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T-bonds

Bond Market Reacts to Nonfarm and FedBonds fell again, hitting our next target at 115'29. Yields are creeping up as the markets are pricing in the next rate hike, expected to be 50-75 bps . Nonfarm payrolls gave us some insight into economic conditions: unemployment rose to 3.7%, with a headline miss and downward revision. This suggests that the economy is weakening further, and we are in a period of stagflation. Yields subsequently weakened and we are seeing a slight pivot off 1529. If we rally, we could hit 116'20 or even 117'08. If the figures are hotter than expected it should bolster the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and we could break through 115'29, to 115'03.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Entering the ER months - SPY USOIL WEAT BONDS GOLD DXY BTCSeptember 1 and that fall reversal may be in the air. Looking for a reversal from the falling wedge, but believe me it could easily end up as a false breakout. I'm sure many eyes are on it at this point. If we do rally from here, is it a minor rally? If so, we may set up another, larger, head and shoulders pattern. OIL is at support, Bonds are sucking and probably go into the 120's even if they bounce. Wheat futures / ETF at support as well. Gold needs to hold 1675 level but the Dollar is very strong long term. The USD may pull back here though. BTC is holding up well. Tomorrow at 8:30 is Jobless claims and then ism at 10am, you can watch for economic news on this nice economic calendar us.econoday.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by the_sunship
1
TLT Bond ETF Setup for Reversal to LONGNASDAQ:TLT On the 4H Chart, TLT is sitting on minor support with major support below that. It is near to the bottom of open Bollinger Bands and is inclined to move through the basis line closer to the upper band. Significant resistance is 5 and 15% upside. I see a swing long trade with the stop loss below the major support and targets before the major resistances, yielding a very good reward for risk. Call options are another possibility to consider.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
ES - 1 Hour / Pivotal Timeframe - BONDS DivergingWE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement. The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA. Bullish? Definetely not. That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline. For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin has found new heights of perceptuion management - Absurdity. _________________________________________________________________________ After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking. Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows. Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts. FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme Greed is in trade. Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!" While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly. Bond Auctions - 379 Failures. _________________________________________________________________________ Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly. Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term cross-current. It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range? That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes. A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru this level. Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030 to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th. _________________________________________________________________________ Slop, Chop, Pop & Drop - the RANGE. To Distro more Junk & Co. _________________________________________________________________________ Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they are calling Bullsh_t. Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent. HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners. Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen serve it up. _________________________________________________________________________ RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot. Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care. September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year. Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss. _________________________________________________________________________ In SUM, it's a dangerous Joke of an Equity Complex that will do far more harm. Hyper BK Junk BBY, GME, AMC, COIN all finding Uber Luv. We've seen this time and again and the ending... the song remains the same. _________________________________________________________________________ Extreme Patience remains the stock in trade. NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical has arrived. The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control on the Curve. TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings going to Snap. A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile. Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation on schedule. _________________________________________________________________________ RESISTANCE AHEAD OF NEWS is where we are.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
3