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T-bonds

Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Fed's Catch-22A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price stability, the Fed must raise interest rates as rapidly as inflation is rising. The Fed cannot raise interest rates as rapidly as would be needed to slow rapid inflation because it would rapidly begin to freeze liquidity in the corporate bond market. Rapid tightening would spillover to corporate earnings, asset prices, consumer borrowing and spending, economic growth and ultimately employment, countering the Fed's mandate of maintaining stable employment. The last time that investment grade corporate bond prices fell below their monthly EMA ribbon support was in March 2020, when the Fed made emergency purchases of corporate bond ETFs to ensure liquidity. Now the bond prices are falling below their monthly EMA ribbon support and the Fed is taking the exact opposite measure by calling for accelerated rate hikes. Is it possible to avoid a recession at this point? Only time will tell but the charts seem to doubt it.
AMEX:LQD
by SpyMasterTrades
4
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
10-Year Treasury Yield Pushes to Fresh 2022 High, Now What?The 10-year Treasury yield soared to a new high over the past 24 hours, confirming the breakout above peaks from June - July 2019. Yields are now testing the former 2.34 - 2.43 support zone. Extending gains above the former exposes 2.61 before the 2019 high at 2.79 comes into play. These may offer the next critical levels of resistance as hawkish US monetary policy expectations rise. A bullish Golden Cross between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages remain in play. Keep a close eye on these as key support in the event of a turn lower. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
Treasuries Continue to Toss their Cookies20-year US Treasury bonds already broke an important level of support (red arrow) and yet again, the ETF finds itself at a crucial crossroads as rates continue to rise, punishing the long-end of the yield curve. "We" have been taught (as a country) to think "bonds are safe," yet we can clearly see that these 20-year bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government, are getting curb stomped, losing almost -20% over the course of the last 18 months. But are bonds "safe," really? It's a seriously problem in our industry - at least I think so... For any investor with a "Balanced" (i.e. - 60/40) or worse yet, "Conservative" (40/60) portfolio model, how do you (as the investor) react to a portfolio that's losing money, not only because stocks are falling in value, but because bonds are getting taken to the cleaners as well? Not to go out on a limb here, but I'm going to make the assumption that most of those on TradingView are a little more knowledgable than the average investor. Furthermore, I'd go so far as to say that most are probably avoiding the bond market like we avoided COVID-19 in March of 2020. I won't make blanket advice here and say to that, "Well.... good, then!" However, I WILL say that at our office, we've been underweighting bonds, overweighting stocks and commodities, and tweaking the target allocations a bit (to all our models) to make up for the possibility that we might be coming out of a 35-year bull market in bonds, as the pendulum swings toward higher long-term rates 3, 5, 10+ years from now. While we don't own any 20-year Treasuries at our office, if you DO, I'd be looking at the horizontal line in the sand below current price, which could act as a potential level of support... but if broken, all bets are off.
NASDAQ:TLT
by CMT_Association
3
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H1 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 154'13 Support: 151'09 Pivot: 153'11 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastic indicator and ichimoku cloud, we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 153'11 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance to our 1st support of 151'09 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 154'13 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
Treasuries Get Smashed as Investors Brace for HikesBonds continue their selloff ahead of the FOMC meeting today . The Fed is expected to raise rates, and we could be in for as many as 6 rate hikes total this year. This is impacting yields sending bond prices tumbling. ZN has made a brief attempt at higher levels but got batted down around 125'07, a level we identified yesterday. It is likely to continue the bear trend, currently finding support at 124'19 by a thread. The next target below is 124'06.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bearish dropType: Bullish Rise Resistance: 156'01 Support: 152'02 Pivot: 150'15 Preferred case: With price expected to bounce from the stochastic indicator, we have bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot of 150'15 in line with the horizontal swing low support to our 1st resistance of 156'01 in line with the horizontal pull back resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 152'02 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Genesiv
Bonds Test LowsBonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting we may find support here, or at least that the selloff may ease up. If not, the next target is 125'17. We do appear to be severely oversold and if we see a technical retracement into the bear trend we must break 126'11, where we are currently meeting resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. After that, 126'19 and 126'28 are targets.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 159'22 Support: 151'22 Pivot: 156'00 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 156'00 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance of 159'22 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 151'22 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
Rate volatility breaks March 2020 high!Here we have the MOVE index. This expresses the volatility in bond yields, and to an extent, 'fear' in the bond market. It seems to be quite under the radar right now, but I want to outline why this is important. The index is currently above the March 2020 settlement high... And yet US equities haven't necessarily reacted to this move just yet. But we're seeing signs of stress now in the credit market... This chart is showing the BAML high yield options adjusted spread FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2 . This is important, as it's showing the difference in yield between the treasury curve and all bonds rated BB and below, weighted by market cap... And we can currently see that this is rising, trading at the highest price since December 2020. This is where the real risk degradation will come from, and it is starting to follow the overall move in sovereign bond yields (identified by the MOVE index) as global central banks become more and more hawkish. For firms with a lot of high yield debt, this is not good, considering their margins are likely to be very thin and they could be defined as 'zombies', or firms that are only surviving because they can service their current debt levels. If this debt cost increases, they will face even more hardship. Make sure to keep an eye on both of these indices going forward.
TVC:MOVE
by FinkPro
17
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance: 163'18 Support: 157'24 Pivot: 159'16 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise from our pivot of 127'25 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance of 129'00 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Alternative Scenario : Price may dip to the support level of 127'00 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection level. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by Genesiv
2yr & 10yr Bond with M1Nothing to be concerned about here... if you're an ostrich. Inflation spiraling out of control, while bonds reflect the loosest monetary policy possible with a dovish Federal Reserve hand-wringing about tanking the markets. M1 has gone beyond parabolic, practically vertical. The Fed communicated this week that they will try and control future prices but they're not going to do anything to reign in current "transitory" prices. Fed Chair Powell "hopes" history will say the current regime got this under control when replying to Senator Shelby in congressional talks this week... to which Shelby replied their actions to this point indicate otherwise.
TVC:US10Y
by R0MM3LL
US 10-Year Yield PeakThe 10 year yield will not get to 3%. Since 1987 we have seen this downward trend in treasuries indicated by the channels on the chart. As of today, the 2 standard deviation peak is at 2.2% and the 3 standard deviation peak is at 2.9%. In one year it will move down to 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. There's also a chance we already peaked and we don't see a 10 year yield over 2% for the foreseeable future. There has not been a single time since 1985 that we broke out of the 3 standard deviation upper bound. It is safe to say 2.9% is a hard cap on the 10 year without a major meltdown in the US bond market. Even the 2 std. dev. channel has only been broken twice (and only once significantly) since then. I think this will cause huge bond buying whenever it gets above 2.2% and realistically we won't see over 2.5%. Eventually we'll start flirting with the 0% bound and the 2 std. dev trend will dip negative sometime in 2030. Until then, enjoy the roaring 20s.
TVC:US10YLong
by Seth-Goldberg
Bund approaching much tougher resistanceAs traders unsurprisingly head to safe havens, one of the biggest movers has been the bond market, which has seen a vicious rally higher. I am having a look at the bond market this morning. How far will this rally go? This is a tough call to make but given the overhead band of resistance, which the market has reached, my suspicion is that we should at least see a pause here. So, what makes a ‘tough’ area of resistance on a chart? This happens when a number of chart factors converge in the same area – so for the Bund March contract market this morning (N.B. this is about to expire) we have 2 double Fibos at 170.90/96 (61.8% retracement of the move seen this year and the 50% retracement of the move down from August 2021. Directly above here lies the 200-day ma at 171.66 AND another double Fib oar 172.52/69 (the 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from August). In addition, we have a whole host of resistance coming in from price – previous highs and lows. We also have the 55-week ma coming in at 171.54. MY point is – there is a LOT of resistance in this band, and you may like to tighten up stops if you are in it! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!
by The_STA