Asset Classes - Part 1 and 2 - For beginnersAsset classes - Part 1 - Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies
There are several types of asset classes which group together investments with similar characteristics. However, each asset class also has its own particular features that it does not share with other asset classes. Most common asset classes are: equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and currencies. Correlation between different asset classes within the same industry is common. However, asset classes in unrelated fields show very little correlation. Each asset class possesses a different level of liquidity; most liquid asset classes are equities, fixed-income securities, and commodities.
Sub-asset class
Asset classes can be subdivided into sub-asset classes; for example, commodities can be subdivided into lumber, metals, oil, etc. Sub-asset classes can be further subdivided into separate groups which show common characteristics while showing characteristics of the broad group at the same time. For example, metals can be subdivided into precious metals and industrial metals. Each group can be then divided even further to efficiently distinct between separate features of asset type. For example, precious metals can be divided into gold, silver and platinum.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows a daily chart of continuous CFD on WTI oil. Price made a low of 33.67 USD on 2nd November 2020 and continued to rise until it reached a high of 85.39 USD on 25th October 2021.
Correlation
Some assets tend to show correlation. Such correlation can be positive or negative. Positive correlation means that two assets behave in a similar way. For example, when gold rises then mining stocks rise as well. Contrary to that, negative correlation describes such behavior in which assets move in the opposite direction to each other. For example, when USDEUR declines then WTI oil tends to rise.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily graph of Exxon Mobil Corporation which belongs to the oil mining and exploration sector. It made a low of 31.11 USD on 29th October 2020 and then continued to rise until 1st November 2021 when it reached a high of 66.08 USD. Positive correlation can be observed between CFD on WTI oil shown in Illustration 1.01 and Exxon Mobil Corporation stock.
Stocks
Stocks, also called equities, are normally issued by an eminent (company, state, etc.) as shares which give right of ownership to their holder. These shares are then sold by eminent (to investors) with the purpose to raise capital. Stocks are predominantly traded on stock exchanges and they can be either common stocks or preferred stocks. Common stocks entitle a shareholder to vote at shareholders´ meetings and to receive dividends being paid by a company. Preferred stocks differ from common stocks in that they usually come with limited or no voting rights at all. Though, preferred stocks have higher claims to dividends and distribution of assets by a company. This means that in case of liquidation of a company preferred stockholders have priority over common stockholders. In addition to that, preferred stocks can pay higher dividends than common stocks and because of that they are good for building passive income based on dividend payments which can be monthly or quarterly.
Bonds
Bonds are simply loans made by an eminent (borrower) which can be state, corporation, or any other legal entity. Bonds are considered fixed-income instruments because they come with interest payments being paid out to an investor. Owner of a bond is called debtholder while the issuer of a bond is called a creditor. Bonds are tradable assets and they have maturity. In addition to that, bonds come with risk of default. Because of that, higher yielding bonds usually come with higher risk of default. Bonds are great investment vehicles for building passive income, however, they generally underperform in terms of yield when compared to stocks, commodities and indices. Bond yield is negatively correlated to bond's price.
Commodities
Commodities are basic goods (such as gold, lumber, oil etc.) that are used in commerce. They are usually refined or used for production of other goods. Commodities can be traded on market exchanges where they must meet specified minimum standards like quality, weight, type, etc. Commodities are great speculative and anti-inflationary investment vehicles.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of CFD on WTI oil. On 20th April 2020 due to the WTI oil crisis at Cushing, Oklahoma price plunged below negative 36 USD (-36 USD per barrel). Unfortunately, that is not depicted on the chart (chart depicts lowest value at 0.00 USD).
Currencies
Currency has the role of a medium of exchange for goods and services in almost all economies around the world. There are many different currencies worldwide, however, predominantly used currencies are U.S. dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP), Yuan (CNY) Ruble (RUB), Yen (JPY). Relationships between currencies are highly intertwined making the currency market very complex and hard to predict. Central banks can influence currency rates through monetary policies such as interest rates and quantitative easing. Similarly, a government can impact currency rate by enacting fiscal policies. These policies can have an impact on spending, import, export, etc.; which will, in result, influence currency rate. In addition to all of that, some currencies exhibit positive or negative correlation with commodities such as gold, oil, etc.
Illustration 1.04
Illustration above shows the daily graph of EURUSD. It is observable that EURUSD made lows in March 2020 and then continued to rise towards November 2020. Only a month later in April 2020 oil bottomed out and then started to rise in tandem with EURUSD (depicted in Illustration 1.03).
Asset Classes - Part 2 - Cryptocurrencies, ETFs, CFDs
Modern technology along with financial evolution brought rise of new asset classes such as cryptocurrencies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), contracts for difference (CFDs) and options. These new financial instruments represent alternative investment to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Additionally, some features within these products can help an investor to diversify portfolio, trade short and use leverage with ease of a few mouse button clicks.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency is simply digital currency. Most cryptocurrencies are based on blockchain technology which acts as a distributed ledger that is run by a large number of computers that comprise decentralized structure. Normally, cryptocurrencies are not issued by central authorities (however, central banks around the world currently work on digital form of fiat currencies). Cryptocurrencies are encrypted by cryptographic methods which makes them very difficult to counterfeit and double-spend. These assets are considered to be more volatile when compared to stocks, bonds, commodities and fiat currencies. Another defining feature that sets cryptocurrencies apart from other assets is that they are traded non-stop (24 hours a day, including weekends). Most popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE).
Illustration 1.04
Picture above shows the monthly chart of BTCUSD (Bitcoin in USD). It is very easy to spot unbelievable growth of more than 862 000 % between August 2011 and November 2021.
Exchange traded fund (ETF)
Exchange traded fund is a type of security that is publicly traded on a stock market exchange and which tracks an index, stock, commodity, or other asset. Exchange traded funds can track either one asset or group of assets. This allows an ETF to be structured in such a way that it can reflect performance of a particular economic sector.
Illustration 1.05
Illustration above shows the daily graph of JETS ETF which is an airline exchange traded fund. It has exposure to airline manufacturers, airline operators, airports and terminal services.
Contract for difference (CFD)
Contract for difference is exchange traded security that is cash-settled and which does not include delivery of goods. It simply pays the difference between the opening price and closing price. CFDs copy the price of other securities and they can be traded short, and also on margin. However, usually higher fees are associated with CFDs when compared to stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Illustration 1.06
Depiction above shows the monthly graph of CFD on USOIL.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
T-bonds
Credit - The Second Wave - EvergrandeIdea for Credit:
- Stocks had a bit of a reprieve as China's collapsing property firms were halted for 2 weeks, and China's markets had gone on holiday for Golden week.
- Stock market had an unwinding of hedges last week, but are things really 'Back to Normal'?
- The bond market does not think so, and seems to be presaging more drawdown to come.
- EM High Yield has been in capitulation, while US Corporate bonds and HY are accelerating their declines.
- High Yield Spreads are about to breakout.
- This is a problem that has not simply gone away, but rather will only get worse.
- Nikkei had even erased all losses of the year in 2 weeks, then lost them again in 2 weeks more, to continue its bear market:
- Remains to be seen how far-reaching the effects will be on China's 5T property market. The drag on global property market is real:
More to come on that later.
The stock market has its best days in bear markets as volatility increases, and this is really telling of the situation. I think we are already in a global bear market and recession.
110 1911 222
GLHF
- DPT
junk bonds undesired while treasuries catching bid, hyg over tltwith higher inflation and possible shrinking forward guidance, are corporate junk grade bonds less desirable now? maybe the market doesnt top out or pull back, but cpi over 5% while junk bonds yield mid 4% starts to sound less attractive for the risk, doesnt it?
Bonds Test Higher LevelsZN is testing highs at 131'12. We have tested this level twice but are facing some resistance as confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The next level above is 131'20, and this will be the next target if we can break 131'12. The Kovach OBV is progressively getting stronger, but has currently leveled off. Bonds will likely range a bit until we see more momentum come through. We will have support from below from 131'02, then 130'26.
Bonds Establish ValueBonds have dipped but have found support at the levels we identified yesterday. ZN retraced from relative highs at 131'02 to 130'19. It has since rebounded and is currently testing 130'26. The Kovach OBV was quite strong, but has dipped with the retracement. We appear to be forming value between 130'19 and 131'02. If this is the case, then expect further support at 130'19 and resistance at 131'02. Beware of the vacuum zone below to 130'07. The next target above is 131'12.
Gold Finds SupportGold has given up the value area between 1795 and 1815. We have fallen back from 1795 to find support in the 1770's as we anticipated yesterday. 1789 and 1784 attempted to provided some support, but we have settled at 1777. Watch for gold to make another run for relative highs at 1795. However, the Kovach OBV has dipped notably, so be careful of lower levels. We will find further support at 1770, then there is a vacuum zone to 1759.
Bonds Testing Relative HighsBonds have encroached on the upper bound of the range, hitting our target at 131'02. We have inched above that at present and are running into some resistance as identified by two triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If the bull bias continues watch for ZN to cross the vacuum zone to 131'12. If we pull back a bit, then watch for it to fall back to comfort in the 130's, with 130'26 being the nearest level of support.
Bond Yields to Rise again soon - heading towards 1.8%I think its fair to agree that in the long term, with interest rates expected to rise, and monetary policy tightening, that bond yields willl rise inevitably. but the question really is when.
Whilst i cant judge when that will be... i can try and get some good timings (for short positions on bonds - since bond prices are inverse to yield).
Yields should bottom out near 1.25% fairly soon... after which i would look to see the yields rise back to around 1.8 or possibly more.
Global bonds rout put central banks on the spot What a crazy market,” said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities. “The 20s-30s curve is just reflecting the overall flattening theme in the market -- where central banks are forced to respond to inflation, which slows growth significantly.”
Yield-curve flattening has gained momentum across global bond markets this week as traders scrambled to price in more aggressive central-bank actions to fend off inflation. The Bank of Canada surprised investors Wednesday by abruptly ending its bond-buying stimulus program and accelerated the potential timing of future interest rate increases; the Canadian yield curve flattened sharply in response.
While declining oil prices account for some of the pullback in breakevens, “profit-taking after a very strong run over the past several weeks” was also a likely factor, said Michael Pond, head of inflation market strategy at Barclays Capital Inc.
“We might be seeing de-risking ahead of the Fed,” which has been mindful of inflation expectations and doesn’t want to appear to be behind the curve, Pond said.
Bond market volatility rocks the EuroData released Thursday showed that U.S. GDP growth slowed sharply to a 2% annualized rate in the third quarter. Meanwhile, investors continued to price in rate increases by the European Central Bank, while dismissing President Christine Lagarde’s effort to push back against such expectations.
Market expectations of higher interest rates has brought out bears, with Danske Bank strategists expecting the euro to fall to $1.10 over the next 12 months.
US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support.
We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster.
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Gold Under Pressure from Bonds?It appears the US 10 yr is temporarily topped out. With Gold and Silver holding up despite very bearish outlook sentiment, this catalyst could be the final barrier in the way for further upside of PMs. DXY also seems to be breaking down from weekly chart bearish ascending triangle.
*first shared idea… please forgive the lack of technical viewpoint. Just my opinion. Do your own DD, and good luck.
Trad-Fi's 40 Year Strong Chart of Truth 📉💡🧙🏻♀️Readers familiar with traditional financial world
will recognise the generational downtrend of
every interest rate (inverse of Bond prices) charts.
US 30 Year Bond Rates are set to go near zero before
the immortal rate Bear is final through.
TVC:US30
TVC:US30Y
NASDAQ:TLT
CBOT:UB1!
ZB Bullish setup 10/14/2021ZB was clearly Bullish based on the Daily bias. I was trying to sell today in NY and my position got stopped out.
ZB had a Daily sell side liquidity and formed a Bullish market structure shift on Monday but stalled till the next day, moved in Asia but I am inactive during that time. NY open Tuesday formed a Bullish OTE, and today price hit the Relative Equal Highs (Previous week highs).
Elliott Wave Analysis - US 10Y YieldWho sets interest rates? Is it the central banks... or is it the free market?
Given that the FED's dovish approach clashes directly with this forecast, it would suggest that it is the latter.
My opinion: the FED isn't a leader, but a follower of the worst kind. Consistently making mistakes at the tops and bottoms of markets. If the market pushes rates higher for long enough, the FED will follow.
TREASURY BONDS CREATING LIQUIDITY BEFORE MOVE UP?Hello my beauties.
The bonds seem to be in a strong downtrend, and the volume profile suggests that the most liquidity is actually clustered around the upwards trendline area. I suspect the price will be directed there to generate enough liquidity for the next move up.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Energy sector will go into deflationary depression crash I thinkWe are on the edge of credit bubble bursting into flames lol. All this is going to be deflationary environment NOT inflation. You can't have inflation without credit. I believe we are on the edge of commodities meltdown cause by THE GREAT RESET of the world's credit system. Not the kind of reset everyone is expecting which is inflationary. This is going to be The Great Depression 2.0 IMO...