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T-bonds

US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
TREASURY BONDS CREATING LIQUIDITY BEFORE MOVE UP?Hello my beauties. The bonds seem to be in a strong downtrend, and the volume profile suggests that the most liquidity is actually clustered around the upwards trendline area. I suspect the price will be directed there to generate enough liquidity for the next move up. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by TrickleDownFX
1
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
Double Bottom in German Bunds, Expected Rally to 171.2Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. German Bunds (FGBL1!) formed a double bottom or W chart pattern setup after testing 169.60 support and break above 170.3 resistance. Expectations are for the uptrend to continue, with the completion of the setup being around the 171.20 price level. Failure of the setup will be observed if FGBL1! were to decline below the long term moving average, taking the price to 169.80. Technical Indicators During the course of the double bottom setup, the respective short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages had positive crossovers. Currently the price is trading above the respective MAs. Other technical indicators are also displaying bullish signs. The RSI is trading above 50 while the KST recently had a positive crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 169.80 and a target of 171.2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.37. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. Currently I have a position in FGBL1!.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by Ceddy86
Barn Bridge ($BOND) is getting ready for move past $100 soonWhen in doubt, zoom out. On the weekly (BONDUSD Uniswap), tightened bands with MACD throwing a buy signal. Has coiled up for months for a parabolic move on breakout. First target is $130, second target is $186. In Q1-Q2 of 2022 I can see this going past $500 mark, but for the short term, a $100-$200 move looks imminent. I added as soon as MACD turned bullish (at around $20), My first profit taking region will be between $130-$160.
BLong
by ValueCryptoTrades
3
10 Year Note Yield - 2%+ AheadPCE Data Friday rose to a 30 Year High for August 2021. Record levels at a year over year scale - with the FED remarking "Inflation remains frustratingly high". The Prior peak in 10 Year Note Yields provided the bottom for the ES (SPY, SPX, S&P500) @ 1.765. Yields have formed a Bull Flag in which Price should begin to Chop and complete for the Breakout of the pattern. Price objectives above are the prior highs @ 1.765 followed by an extension to 2.12 - 2.25%. This level should provide the lows for the Indices, they may well reach their Objective lows on the Break of 2% with the final push lower between 200 & 400SMAs. Patience will provide entry for the Final Long - 5/5 on the larger Daily TF. Bonds are simply pricing in - "Inflation" as we indicated would arrive in September/October. US Debt is seeing a broadening of concerns among Market Participants while Inflation begins to wreak havoc on Consumers. Supply shortages will continue for the foreseeable future, ultimately the shortages will create a large waterfall decline in 2022 of 50-70% as a complete loss of confidence in Arrangements concludes. Wall Street will seek entry for the next SELL as the 10Yr Note Yield pullback and ranges within the Bull Flag for Yields. * The Equity Markets remain a "Funding Mechanism" until they are not. 5/5 will be a large move for 2022 off the approaching Lows.
TVC:US10YShort
by HK_L61
8
Will the markets meltdown and hammer the bulls as yields rallyThe action has been very heavy this week and major indexes have been pressured lower. There is a lot for bulls to think about and many will be getting nervous. Will the FED come to the rescue again??....and will the Dip Buyers provide support again. In the video I take a look at my key markets and how I am approaching the current market action. I look at US 10-year bonds, the USD, SP500, DOW, Nasdaq and the ASX200.
CBOT:ZN1!
by TradeTheStructure
US10Y hit the 0.618 Fib. Pull-back to 1W MA50?The US10Y has been trading within a Channel Up until it marginally broke its Higher Highs trend-line yesterday. This happens to be exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and today we we seeing a rejection. Technically the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting for months, with the most recent bounce provided on the September 15th low. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 1W MA50 again. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
US Dollar and the macro landscapeThe USD is currently looking pretty strong, with 96 looking very likely the first key target and resistance zone. It looks like it has formed a major based and has potentially bottomed for real... The US compared to other countries can raise rates a lot more and therefore the dollar could strengthen more, but the key is that raising rates will create all sorts of issues. There is too much US denominated debt and as rates go higher people struggle to pay debts and therefore sell real assets to buy USD. As inflation is going higher, people are already struggling to pay certain things and this is just the cherry on top. I seriously don't understand how raising rates will stop energy prices going higher, especially when the way the system is currently set and in its current state raising rates even to 3% would blow up the entire US junk bond market. There is too much leverage and malinvestment at this stage that can only be washed out violently. However I am not as bearish for now, especially on US stocks. I believe we will get a dip, and a strong dip but it is a great opportunity. I truly believe stocks have much higher to go and this is just an ordinary correction. We haven't had a 10% correction in the S&P 500 for about a year and in the meantime stock prices have risen tremendously. Yes there is more upside, but corrections are part of the game regardless of whether there is a narrative behind them or not. That could be high inflation, Fed raising rates, Evergrande or whatever... but the truth is that it was time. Based on my analysis stocks could fall another 5-10% before they bottom, but this doesn't mean it is going to happen in one candle. Expect chop for some time and a potential bottom when we get really high volatility with the VIX around 40. In the short term US rates could go up (bonds going down) and that move was building up for quite some time, but I don't think it will be a moonshot for rates and it won't be a long lasting move. At some point growth will slow down and many of the structural issues will be solved, so inflation will come down and we will be stuck in the same disinflationary environment... Lots of things will start breaking, lots of people will be trapped on the inflationary trade and rates will go negative next time around. So what do I see? Rates up to 1.5-2% and then back down again. What I find most interesting here is how the Russell 2000 looks like distribution, but as rates go up it could be the biggest beneficiary as people exit large caps to enter into small caps. Maybe that's a key rotation to pay attention to as it has shown quite a lot of strength recently. Not only that, but the lows on RUT could be broken violently and then we could see an even more violent come back with new highs shortly after (essentially that range being re-accumulation). Personally I really don't like the way the VIX has bottomed and I feel a big move is coming and that we will have a very volatile environment for quite some time. Things aren't going well globally and nothing has been done to fix all the issues going on. What worries me the most is how relentless Oil and Natural gas look like, which could do a lot of damage on huge parts of the economy as inequality keeps growing. We are stuck in a trap and we can't escape... a vicious loop that only makes things worse. So who knows... maybe my expectation for a small correction is small and a much larger one will come. It is clear that the main trend has broken and I have spoken about it quite a bit over the last few weeks. I have no idea how bad things could get, but for now being patient and waiting to buy the dip is what I think is best. Buy dips on Oil and Stocks. Forget metals and bonds for sure.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro