Get started

T-bonds

Short-Term Bond Yields are Setting up for a Major CorrectionThe SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should align with a decline in the US Dollar and a rise in the Australian Dollar. I suspect the move will be fast and short-lived, but dramatic all the same.
NASDAQ:SHYLong
by RizeSenpai
Time to flip short $TLT againWe made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows. How low we go is TBD, but I think this move could go to at minimum $95 and at maximum retest, or barely sweep the lows. I bought some puts yesterday with a strike of $97 for a few months out. Note: There is a possibility that we get one more retest of the highs before it starts falling (if this happens, I'll add more to my position).
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by benjihyam
4
TLT: Double Bottom at the 0.382 Retrace with Bullish DivergenceSome weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If the TLT were to start bottoming here, it would potentially be the start of an even bigger double bottom than the last one and could result in TLT testing even higher upside retraces such as the 0.886-1.13 which would take it to around $100
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader! U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday. 💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note. 🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13. 🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure. We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex: (Click on chart below) In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top... Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
TVC:US10YShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
Looking at short & long term yieldsGood Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV ------------------------------------ Digesting longer term data = 10 & 30Yr #yield. Higher lows Bullish moving average crossover > circles Moving avgs trending higher Forming small uptrend 2nd pic = WEEKLY Back above previous uptrend Trading under moving avgs TVC:TNX #Gold #silver #BTC
TVC:US30Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DXY, long and short term rates looking betterGood Morning! Let's get it done! Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see? Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit. Do any of these look weak to you? RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process. Short term #Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and the higher the chance of it breaking through. Long term Forming higher lows. TVC:DXY
TVC:US30Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
TLT: Falling Wedge Double Bottom at .382 with Bullish DivergenceThe TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down. I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90 strike and buying weekly calls at the same level.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai
Raising Bullish target on the EURUSD to the 78.6% RetraceLast week I put out this TLT trade setup that showcased a Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at the 0.382 retrace which targeted an upside move in the TLT that would recover at least 50% of the high: In the time since this setup first formed the TLT has nearly reached that minimum target. In addition to the TLT, I expected the EURUSD to follow a similar path, however, the EURO has remained mostly flat and has not moved up with the TLT which is kind of unusual. It is possible that the EURUSD pair is waiting for the FOMC but in the meantime the Bullish patterns on the EURUSD have gone from just being an intraday pattern to now being a daily pattern, with the Daily candle now printing a Bullish Hammer above the 200-day SMA while also slightly diverging on the RSI. Due to this improvement on the higher timeframe, I have decided to raise the Bullish price target to the 0.786 retrace, aligning with $1.107 as it catches up with the falling US Bond Yields.
Long
by RizeSenpai
$TLT - 20 year US Treasury, possible support -I'm huge ultra BULLISH on US treasuries currently, so please excuse my bias. Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis... 1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915. 2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween, Jerome Powell, "top FED dude", has already said that interest will no longer get increased and that there's possibly three RATE CUTS this year 2024. Even if he said, "Rates will remain unchanged" is enough to make treasuries bounce back to even. (par value). 3. Looking at everything in Barron's most recent "Top Income Plays for 2024" from last week, US Treasuries now offer the most bang for buck interest rate 4.10% with the lowest risk, compared to every other income asset in that article. (i.e, Dividend stocks, muni bonds, REITS, preferred stocks, etc.,) 4. US treasuries are back by the full faith of the US Government. 5. There's now a website that tracks Congress women & men trades, capitol trades.com. And there's A LOT of them buying US Treasuries. 6. There's massive geopolitical risk right now and WW3 is now a word being used. 7. Bottomline: between the yield of +4% and the upside appreciation of treasuries being at the biggest discount in US History, I believe any pull back should bought. 8. COMPLIMENT OPTION STRATEGIES A. You could buy 100 shares of TLT and the following are low risk option strategies to compliment your 100 shares of TLT. i. Sell short term (30 days out) 1 call. If you buy 100 shares of TLT, then you can sell 1 covered call on TLT out of the money OTM, and take that premium and purchase another share of TLT. think "snow ball" effect. The strike I am selling on 1000 shares of TLT is Ten $98 strike TLT calls with 2/23 expiration. Then take that money and bought 10 additional shares of TLT. ii. If you want to get fancy with this, you can also add to the above covered call BUY WRITE and do a VERTICAL PUT SPREAD, aka Credit Put Spread to add to the income (which adds to the "Income Snow Ball" of something that is appreciating. Mo Money Mo Money! a. Sell $90 strike Put on TLT, 30 days out b. Buy $87 stake Put on TLT,, same exp, to cover your short put. c. This produces an extra $200 which you could spend on blow (or groceries) or you can buy 2 more shares of TLT. Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! thats capital generating income, that's generating income, being used to buy more of the thing that's appreciating in value, that's also generating income. THAT'S A LOT OF CHEDDAR!! After one month, THEN REPEAT. :)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jgeno
1
TMV Triple Inverse Treasury Bill ETF LONGTMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative volume indicator shows increasing volumes reacting to the price bottoming and accumulation underway. I see this as a long trade set up while recognizing that fundamentals such as interest rate adjustments and inflation data could impact the technicals.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
$VGIT and 10-yr yield relationshipThe NASDAQ:VGIT ETF movement seems to be inversely proportional to the 10-yr US bond yield Typically as the yield increases, the bond price would also decrease. Even though VGIT has an attractive yield (up to 6% p.a.) with monthly dividends, this requires at least 1-year holding period. Moreover, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2024. While this may push the price higher, the estimated upside seems to be only +8% of my entry price (around the end-2019 levels). On the other hand, looking at the red trend lines, prices may trade sideways within the triangle for a few months thus limiting capital upsides and I will be stuck to collecting monthly dividends. It's a decent return just that I already have a different investment account with similar risk appetite and similar yield. So with the improving equity market condition, perhaps it's time to move from VGIT to the equity market with better capital upside? From Reuters: This recovery will hold, according to median forecasts from a Dec. 7-12 Reuters poll of 50 bond strategists, mostly from sell-side firms, who said yields will only reach 4.25% by end-February though will likely stay volatile in the interim. The 10-year yield will then fall to 4.10% by end-May, before hitting 3.88% in 12 months, lower than the 4.30% and 4.00%, respectively, expected in a November poll but considerably higher than surveys conducted earlier this year.
NASDAQ:VGITShort
by Dynamiac
US10Y About to form a 1D Death Cross. How to trade it?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our last 1D analysis 3 months ago (October 21 2023, see chart below), hitting all 3 Targets in the process: This time however it is in a completely different situation as it may be rebounding since the Higher Low at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up on December 28, but is being rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since Friday. As a result by tomorrow it will complete a 1D Death Cross, which is technically a bearish pattern. Last time it was formed however (May 04 2023), it did so exactly on a bottom and a very strong 6-month rally started. Also technically, every time it finished such a downtrend (blue ellipse), strong rallies above the 1D MA50 followed. As a result our trading plan will be based on simple break-outs. As long as the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, and remains within the Channel Up, we will be bullish targeting the 5.000% Resistance. If however it breaks below Support 1, the loss will be minimal and we will reverse to a sell, targeting Support 2 at 3.300%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
1
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-BOJToday's focus: Pattern – Continuation, resistance test. Support – 37,400 Resistance – 187.63 - 184.35 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Our focus today is on the GBPJPY pre-Bank of Japan. Looking at price, we can see it continues to trade on fast trends higher but has stalled at resistance. The market could now be waiting to see what's next from the Bank of Japan. Will they tweak their bond-buying program? We have seen some solid volatility from past meetings. Could this be another? We have run over two scenarios in today's video, and we will look to see what happens next for the JPY after tomorrow's BOJ meeting. Rates are expected to remain on hold, and the statement and outlook report are expected between 11:30 am and 4 pm on Tuesday this week. Good trading.
by Eightcap
Macro Monday 30~U.S. Net Treasury International Capital FlowsMacro Monday 30 U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall balance of payments, reflecting the financial transactions between the United States and the rest of the world. What does the data represent exactly? The U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) system is compiled by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and provides information on cross-border financial transactions. The TIC data include details on purchases and sales of various U.S. financial assets and liabilities, such as Treasury securities, corporate bonds, equities, and banking flows. In simple terms the Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities (inflows) are taken away from the U.S. Purchases of Foreign Securities (outflows) to present a overall net figure. The net result of these two components determines whether there is a net inflow or outflow of capital. What are the drivers of positive & negative flows? Positive Flows (>0 on chart) POSITIVE FLOWS in U.S Net Treasury International Capital result from factors such as attractive U.S. interest rates, a stable domestic economy, and global uncertainty that drives foreign investors to seek the safety of U.S. Treasury securities. During these periods, there is a net inflow of capital into the United States pressing the number higher above zero. Negative Flows (<0 on chart) Conversely, NEGATIVE FLOWS occur when other countries offer higher returns, there are concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, or global risk aversion prompts investors to repatriate funds. Exchange rate movements also play a role, as a stronger U.S. dollar can make U.S. assets less appealing. The interplay of the above mentioned factors influences the direction of international capital flows, which impacts the balance of purchases and sales of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign and domestic investor. Now that we have a general sense of what’s driving the data, and what makes an overall net positive and or net negative flow, let’s have a look at the chart. The Chart ✅ Since Jan 2019 there has been an upward trend in Treasury Inflows into the U.S (Black Arrow). ❌This upward trend had one sudden interruption causing a decline from Mar - May 2023 going from positive inflows of $114B to negative outflows of $159.4B, the timing of which coincided with the 2023 U.S Banking Crisis where three small-to-mid size U.S. banks failed. ✅ Since the Banking Crisis in May 2023 Treasury Capital flows have moved from overall negative outflows of $159.4B to overall positive inflows of $260.2B. A major turn around and reversion to the long term trend. ✅The recent surge in positive inflows to $260.2B are the highest recorded since August 2022 ($275B) In summary inflows to U.S Treasuries have been in an general uptrend since January 2019 with one brief interruption from Mar – May 2023 and inflows have increased significantly in recent months and look like they may be about to take out the Aug 2022 highs. Recession Patterns 1. More isolated recessions that were not globally systemic events led to positive net inflows into the U.S. Treasury however larger global events led to outflows from U.S. Treasuries, particularly if those global events involved the U.S. engaging in foreign conflicts. ▫️ During the DotCom Crash (No. 3 on the chart) – The tech sector was badly hit but it was not necessarily a global recession with the associated geopolitical turmoil. Foreign investors sought safety in the U.S. Treasury Market during this time. ▫️ Similarly during the brief Gulf War Recession (No. 4 on the chart) you can see that initially, there was increased net inflows however in Jan 1991 inflows sharply turned to outflows which coincided with the U.S. led invasion of Kuwait (a response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait). This was considered a global event and thus led to an exodus of outflows and repatriation of funds from the U.S Treasury Market. ▫️ More recently during the Great Financial Crisis (no. 2 on the chart) and the COVID-19 Crash (No. 1 on the chart) there was a significant outflow from U.S. Treasuries due to the magnitude of these global events. You can imagine foreign market participants clawing funds back into their respective countries to batten the hatches and get into a defensive financial position with global systemic risks high. Better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush when the bush is on fire. ▫️One other pattern worth mentioning is highlighted in yellow on the chart with an A, B and C. Prior to the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crashes we first had a reduction in overall U.S. Net Treasuries of $373B (A on chart) and $393B (B on chart), respectively. Within 13 to 16 months of both treasure drawdowns we had a recession. We recently had a drop of $437B (C on chart) which ended in May 2023. If history repeats and we had a recession within 13-16 months of this happening, this would be sometime between June and Sept 2024. An alternative view would be that the increase in declines from $373B (A) to $393B (B) to $437B (C) may correspond with the shortening timeframes from 16 months(A) to 13 months(B) to potentially 10 months(C) for the current $437B drop (C on the chart). This would suggest March/April 2024 as a potential recession timeframe (based on the historic reductive time pattern). The U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows is a fascinating chart to keep an eye on and should be added to the economic data armory as it will help us interpret what is really going on in the treasury market (there is a lot of false narratives out there ATM). It is also useful in informing us on what the global perspective is in terms of systemic risk vs isolated risk, and also from a historic recessionary standpoint offers value. The best investors in the world call the bond market the market of truth but I have found it hard to find a chart that illustrates this through a global lens UNTIL today. This chart captures that beautifully. Thanks for coming along again PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCFLong
by PukaCharts
30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes: 1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers. 2. Orange County Bankruptcy 3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse. 4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat 5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.
TVC:TYX
by timwest
8
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation. Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion? -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ...trade with care! 👍 If you think that my analysis is useful, please... "Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers!
TVC:US10YLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
23
10Y Treasury Bond Is Looking For A Bigger RecoveryTreasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside can be coming within a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally, where first leg (A) can be still in progress or maybe already completed as an impulse. Support on subwave 4 or wave (B) dips are at 110-111.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by ew-forecast
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Looking ahead to MarchWe move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point. Yield curves are steepening (the US 2’s 30s curve is no longer inverted), driven by the short-end where US 2-year Treasury yields fell for six straight days, losing 23bp on the week. US 5-year real rates (i.e. US 5-year Treasury adjusted for expected inflation over the coming 5 years) have printed new cycle lows and sit at the lowest yield since May ’23. Some have stated the case that the US CPI print gives the Fed less scope to ease in March. Perhaps…but when we take the components from CPI and PPI that feed into the core PCE calculation (released 27 Jan), and we’re looking at an estimate of c. 0.2% mom, which sees the 6-month annualised rate of core PCE around 2% - and given core PCE is what the Fed set policy to – bingo, we have a clear justification as to why the bond and rates market feels March is the starting point. Tuesday’s (Wed 03:00 AEDT) speech from Fed member Christopher Waller will be one of the key focal points this week, where recall he set off the rally in late November with definition on a timeline and a path to cut rates, which essentially started the Fed pivot and the year-end risk rally. With talk of an earlier start to QT tapering and lower relative US bond yields, it’s a surprise that the USD is holding in so well with the DXY tracking a sideways range of 102.70 to 102.10. On the week the GBPUSD was the best performer in G10, with price pushing 1.2800, while the BRL got spoils in the EM FX space. Gold has seen somewhat of a renaissance against this backdrop though, where on the 4-hr chart price closed above the recent downtrend, where on the daily price closed above the 5-day EMA. A weak US retail sales could offer renewed life for gold bulls and see price target 2075. It's been a mixed picture in equity land, with much focus on the JPN225 gaining a massive 6.9% - although, the risk-to-reward trade-off suggests refraining from new longs and waiting for some of the heat to come out of the move. An RSI of 80 aside, 87% of stocks are above the 50-day MA, and 68% of stocks closed at a 4-week high. A sign of euphoria and a signal for contrarians or solid participation and therefore bullish? I favour the latter. While US earnings continue to trickle in and the US election process officially kicks off in Iowa, China takes centre stage once again with retail sales, Q4 GDP, and property sales. China/HK equity remains challenged, but the tape is turning, and shorts are seeing signs that we may be turning from a trend position to one of trading a consolidation, where range trading in the CHINAH, HK50 and CN50 may be the strategy. We’ll see but if the data comes in softer, or we don’t see the level of monetary policy easing that’s priced, then frustration will likely see renewed selling flows. The set-up in US equity indices look balanced with 2-week risk – the risk bulls will naturally want the US500 to clear 4800 and the NAS100 through 17k, but with options expiry across the VIX, index and single stock plays this week (schedule below), one questions if we see a higher volatility post expiration. An obvious consideration for one’s risk management. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate this week: US markets closed for MLK Day (Monday) – partial trade in futures. • China 1-year MLF rate (15 Jan 12:20 AEDT) – we should see the PBOC cut the Medium-Lending Facility by 10bp to 2.4% (from 2.5%), with a chance they cut by 15bp to 2.35%. Anything less than a 10bp cut could weigh on CHINAH, CN50 and HK50. We also remain on watch for a cut to China’s bank reserve ratio requirement (RRR) as well. • UK employment and wages (16 Jan 18:00 AEDT) – on wages, the consensus is we see Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY moderate a touch to 6.8% (from 7.2%). The outcome will play into UK rates pricing, where the first 25bp cut is priced for May. GBPUSD seems to be finding good supply into 1.2800, so the GBP bulls will want to see a closing break here to add to longs. Favour EURGBP into 0.8560. • China Q4 GDP (17 Jan 13:00) – the economist’s median estimate has Q4 GDP growing 1% QoQ and 5.2% YoY (from 4.9% in Q3) – GDP by its nature is a backwards-looking data point but given the lack of confidence international money managers have in investing in China, I think the outcome of the China GDP report could impact market volatility. • China industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, property sales (17 Jan 13:00) – the market looks for these data points to come in at 4.5%, 2.9%, 8% and -9.5% respectively. Certainly, the market will be closely watching the property sales data for further evidence that sales are troughing. • UK CPI (17 Jan 18:00 AEDT) – a potential vol event for GBP traders, so monitor exposures over the data point - the market sees headline CPI coming in at 3.8% yoy (from 3.9%) and core CPI at 4.9% (5.1%). GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility sits at 6.67% (the 17th percentile of the 12-month range), and pricing a -/+ 105-pip move from Friday’s closing level. • US retail sales (18 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median consensus is we see sales growing 0.4% mom, with the ‘control group’ element at 0.2%. The market picks and chooses to run with this data point, but I think a mom decline – should it come - could impact sentiment and promote good USD sellers. • Aussie employment report (18 Jan 11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see 15k jobs created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.9%. Aussie interest rate futures price the June RBA meeting as the probable first cut, so this pricing may come into question, but it would take a move in the unemployment rate to do so. • Japan national CPI (19 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for JP headline CPI to moderate to 2.6% (from 2.8%) and core CPI to print 3.7% (3.8%). After last week’s -3% decline in real wages, and falling inflation in Japan, coming at a time when other G10 central are expected to start a cutting cycle, it hardly incentivises the BoJ to lift rates. Fed speakers – Christopher Waller (17/1 03:00 AEDT), Williams, Bostic, Daly Other factors that could affect market sentiment: • US Corp earnings – It’s a quiet week on the US earnings front with c3% of the US500 market cap report - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley garner attention, while we see several regional banks out with numbers, so put the KRE ETF on the radar. • US politics – On Monday we get the results from the Iowa Caucuses – Trump is almost certain to win the REP nomination, but could Nikki Haley gain some momentum to take into the New Hampshire Primary on 23 January? • US options expiry – US equity index expiry (16 Jan), VIX options expiry (17 Jan), equity options expiry (19 Jan).
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone