Get started

T-bonds

US10Y Expect to see a new High.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target (TP = 4.600%) is intact. If the 0.786 Fibonacci level breaks, we will buy after the first 1D MA50 pullback. The 1D RSI is also posting a similar early rally sequence to April-May 2023 and December 2022-January 2023. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
DXY Seems Likely to Show Some Mid-Term StrengthDXY has pulled back a lot as US bonds have ripped to the upside, however it would appear that the Yields may be setting up for a short term bottom which would result in the DXY coming back up. This would align with the Euro coming back down, but I'm not convinced the move up in DXY will be long-lasting, however I do think it will be notable enough to initiate some Bearish Reversals in Gold, BTC and the SPX and the completion of a potential Bullish 5-0 on the Euro which would take it to the 50-61.8% retrace down at around $1.08, before continuing to the upside.
CME:6E1!Short
by RizeSenpai
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High. As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
IEF: Holding on to an Established Trendline at the 0.382 RetraceThe IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par value on the bonds themselves. Bullish setups can also be found in other duration ETFs such as the TLT and SHY representing the 20 Year and the 1-3 Year Bonds. I suspect that all this Bullishness on Bonds will come with the Uninverting of the Yield Curve, which may align in commodities blasting off much higher in the short term, but in the long term could result in the resetting of the Bullish Cycle in Equities and Commodities alike.
NASDAQ:IEFLong
by RizeSenpai
TLT: Piercing Line on the Quarterly Chart Signaling Lower YieldsTLT (The 20-Year US Treasury Bond ETF) has recently completed the measured move of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Breakdown and has now confirmed a Piercing Line on the 3-Month Chart while closing above the 0.886 Retrace. We can also see that the RSI has begun to break out of its downtrend and these combinations of variables seem to point towards the TLT reversing the overall downtrend which could lead to a major move up towards the 50-61.8% retraces between $130 and $143 this would come with bond yields falling off significantly and may also be a sign of investors seeking safer investments over the coming months.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai
1
Short-Term Bond Yields are Setting up for a Major CorrectionThe SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should align with a decline in the US Dollar and a rise in the Australian Dollar. I suspect the move will be fast and short-lived, but dramatic all the same.
NASDAQ:SHYLong
by RizeSenpai
Time to flip short $TLT againWe made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows. How low we go is TBD, but I think this move could go to at minimum $95 and at maximum retest, or barely sweep the lows. I bought some puts yesterday with a strike of $97 for a few months out. Note: There is a possibility that we get one more retest of the highs before it starts falling (if this happens, I'll add more to my position).
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by benjihyam
4
TLT: Double Bottom at the 0.382 Retrace with Bullish DivergenceSome weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If the TLT were to start bottoming here, it would potentially be the start of an even bigger double bottom than the last one and could result in TLT testing even higher upside retraces such as the 0.886-1.13 which would take it to around $100
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader! U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday. 💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note. 🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13. 🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure. We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex: (Click on chart below) In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top... Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
TVC:US10YShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
Looking at short & long term yieldsGood Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV ------------------------------------ Digesting longer term data = 10 & 30Yr #yield. Higher lows Bullish moving average crossover > circles Moving avgs trending higher Forming small uptrend 2nd pic = WEEKLY Back above previous uptrend Trading under moving avgs TVC:TNX #Gold #silver #BTC
TVC:US30Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DXY, long and short term rates looking betterGood Morning! Let's get it done! Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see? Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit. Do any of these look weak to you? RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process. Short term #Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and the higher the chance of it breaking through. Long term Forming higher lows. TVC:DXY
TVC:US30Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
TLT: Falling Wedge Double Bottom at .382 with Bullish DivergenceThe TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down. I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90 strike and buying weekly calls at the same level.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai
Raising Bullish target on the EURUSD to the 78.6% RetraceLast week I put out this TLT trade setup that showcased a Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at the 0.382 retrace which targeted an upside move in the TLT that would recover at least 50% of the high: In the time since this setup first formed the TLT has nearly reached that minimum target. In addition to the TLT, I expected the EURUSD to follow a similar path, however, the EURO has remained mostly flat and has not moved up with the TLT which is kind of unusual. It is possible that the EURUSD pair is waiting for the FOMC but in the meantime the Bullish patterns on the EURUSD have gone from just being an intraday pattern to now being a daily pattern, with the Daily candle now printing a Bullish Hammer above the 200-day SMA while also slightly diverging on the RSI. Due to this improvement on the higher timeframe, I have decided to raise the Bullish price target to the 0.786 retrace, aligning with $1.107 as it catches up with the falling US Bond Yields.
Long
by RizeSenpai
$TLT - 20 year US Treasury, possible support -I'm huge ultra BULLISH on US treasuries currently, so please excuse my bias. Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis... 1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915. 2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween, Jerome Powell, "top FED dude", has already said that interest will no longer get increased and that there's possibly three RATE CUTS this year 2024. Even if he said, "Rates will remain unchanged" is enough to make treasuries bounce back to even. (par value). 3. Looking at everything in Barron's most recent "Top Income Plays for 2024" from last week, US Treasuries now offer the most bang for buck interest rate 4.10% with the lowest risk, compared to every other income asset in that article. (i.e, Dividend stocks, muni bonds, REITS, preferred stocks, etc.,) 4. US treasuries are back by the full faith of the US Government. 5. There's now a website that tracks Congress women & men trades, capitol trades.com. And there's A LOT of them buying US Treasuries. 6. There's massive geopolitical risk right now and WW3 is now a word being used. 7. Bottomline: between the yield of +4% and the upside appreciation of treasuries being at the biggest discount in US History, I believe any pull back should bought. 8. COMPLIMENT OPTION STRATEGIES A. You could buy 100 shares of TLT and the following are low risk option strategies to compliment your 100 shares of TLT. i. Sell short term (30 days out) 1 call. If you buy 100 shares of TLT, then you can sell 1 covered call on TLT out of the money OTM, and take that premium and purchase another share of TLT. think "snow ball" effect. The strike I am selling on 1000 shares of TLT is Ten $98 strike TLT calls with 2/23 expiration. Then take that money and bought 10 additional shares of TLT. ii. If you want to get fancy with this, you can also add to the above covered call BUY WRITE and do a VERTICAL PUT SPREAD, aka Credit Put Spread to add to the income (which adds to the "Income Snow Ball" of something that is appreciating. Mo Money Mo Money! a. Sell $90 strike Put on TLT, 30 days out b. Buy $87 stake Put on TLT,, same exp, to cover your short put. c. This produces an extra $200 which you could spend on blow (or groceries) or you can buy 2 more shares of TLT. Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! thats capital generating income, that's generating income, being used to buy more of the thing that's appreciating in value, that's also generating income. THAT'S A LOT OF CHEDDAR!! After one month, THEN REPEAT. :)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jgeno
1
TMV Triple Inverse Treasury Bill ETF LONGTMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative volume indicator shows increasing volumes reacting to the price bottoming and accumulation underway. I see this as a long trade set up while recognizing that fundamentals such as interest rate adjustments and inflation data could impact the technicals.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
$VGIT and 10-yr yield relationshipThe NASDAQ:VGIT ETF movement seems to be inversely proportional to the 10-yr US bond yield Typically as the yield increases, the bond price would also decrease. Even though VGIT has an attractive yield (up to 6% p.a.) with monthly dividends, this requires at least 1-year holding period. Moreover, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2024. While this may push the price higher, the estimated upside seems to be only +8% of my entry price (around the end-2019 levels). On the other hand, looking at the red trend lines, prices may trade sideways within the triangle for a few months thus limiting capital upsides and I will be stuck to collecting monthly dividends. It's a decent return just that I already have a different investment account with similar risk appetite and similar yield. So with the improving equity market condition, perhaps it's time to move from VGIT to the equity market with better capital upside? From Reuters: This recovery will hold, according to median forecasts from a Dec. 7-12 Reuters poll of 50 bond strategists, mostly from sell-side firms, who said yields will only reach 4.25% by end-February though will likely stay volatile in the interim. The 10-year yield will then fall to 4.10% by end-May, before hitting 3.88% in 12 months, lower than the 4.30% and 4.00%, respectively, expected in a November poll but considerably higher than surveys conducted earlier this year.
NASDAQ:VGITShort
by Dynamiac
US10Y About to form a 1D Death Cross. How to trade it?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our last 1D analysis 3 months ago (October 21 2023, see chart below), hitting all 3 Targets in the process: This time however it is in a completely different situation as it may be rebounding since the Higher Low at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up on December 28, but is being rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since Friday. As a result by tomorrow it will complete a 1D Death Cross, which is technically a bearish pattern. Last time it was formed however (May 04 2023), it did so exactly on a bottom and a very strong 6-month rally started. Also technically, every time it finished such a downtrend (blue ellipse), strong rallies above the 1D MA50 followed. As a result our trading plan will be based on simple break-outs. As long as the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, and remains within the Channel Up, we will be bullish targeting the 5.000% Resistance. If however it breaks below Support 1, the loss will be minimal and we will reverse to a sell, targeting Support 2 at 3.300%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
1