T-distribution
BTC - Wyckoff Price Cycle!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and if you like this idea, kindly support with a like or a comment.
I found BITCOIN chart as a great practical example of Wyckoff's Theory.
Similar to the one I posted for GOLD a couple of weeks ago. (attached in the "link to related ideas section", to keep this one clean)
BTC is overall bullish trading stuck inside a flat channel in brown and it is currently sitting around the lower bound/brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
As per Wyckoff Price Cycle, we are currently in an accumulation phase.
For the Markup to start, we need the bulls to prove control by breaking the blue channel and the last high in gray upward => projection in green
Meanwhile, and until the bulls take over, BTC can still trade lower before breaking the structure, or even form a lower low marked in orange, known as the Spring => projection in red
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Time Compression-----------> GBP/USD
Price for a period of twenty-two days was accumulating contracts In a tight range pip box. which Is truly one of my favorite setups to see once placing a trade. Whenever I see a consolidation period of more than five days, I immediately trap price In a box, and given the fact of the previous week's structure, I can then predict where the price will head with a clear cycle as well as other confluences such as moving averages which I will post below. Trading outside of those parameters is key. Lots of jamming occurred for those twenty-two days of consolidation, and It's best to stay out of those as soon as possible.
-With the major news that Is occurring with Russia and Ukraine, this move to the downside was imminent due to the previous month and week's structure
levels of significance: $1.35895
$1.32836
$1.31521
$1.28471
$1.25887
$1.22547
Max TP- $1.31521 For now
The reason being is I don't know If price will absolutely blast through the low that is present or if It will bounce on that given level on the H1 but either way, analyzing price once it gets there is key. where we're at in price is a clear indication of price dropping even lower. Just wait and execute.
Don't Get Fooled By BTC!!! Hello everyone!
As you can see in this chart we have a BTC wyckoff distribution, what i will expect from this move?!
First of all, we can see that BTC filled an imbalance that i called on 10 feb. I expect a pump from this zone to make a UT, this could be from 45 to 50k, depends on the next days volume, maybe BTC will fill another daily imbalance. After this pump i think that will dump to 41.5-43k and consolidate there, if that will happen we will have a confirmed distribution.
Of course we can have another scenario, the other scenario is to reject from 41500, but as we know funding rate is going down and a lot of liquidation has accumulate over that zone. Liquidation that market makers will want to get. Why do i think that we will go up to 45-50k, so if u use twitter often is impossible that u didn't saw people saying, if we go to 50k i am bullish or if we go to 48k i am bullish, from that zone will come a lot of greed, and if we have greed in market, whales will be there to take the money, i think this will be a very good trap and we can profit from that.
Why i think BTC will go lower than 33k, is very simple, if u look on daily chart you will see a lot of imbalance down there, and a wyckoff accumulation in phase b, more exactly in ST, which is often bellow AR and the last important imbalance is at 18000, ofc we can stop at 27500 and then we can go up from there.
Another interesting thing about my chart is that the dump from UTAD or LPSY will be arround 16 march when will be the event that we all wait to hear the news about taxes, anyway, that will be a very easy way to argument that dump, but guys, we all know that will be not the only reason :))
So, guys, i hope you all the best, that was my opinion with all this move and i like to share my idea with you all.
NZD/JPY 4H Wyckoff 23:1 Risk to Reward RatioWyckoff Trading Method is amazing to understand the market and the big players who move the market. The idea is to understand when the market consolidates and wether it is in a distribution/re-distribution phase or accumulation/re-accumulation phase.
Wyckoff gives you a big Risk to Reward Ration if entered right.
In the NZD/JPY attached picture, the price consolidated and before it there was a change of character, there I have identified the PS (Point of Supply). Then the SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) were identified alongside ST (Second Test) to mark the end of Phase A. Trading Ranges are identified by SC & AR.
Phase B had an Ultimate Thrust followed by an ST for Phase B.
Phase C is where the big players trick you into thinking the price will go down while in fact the want to push it up. That is called the Spring which is then followed by a Test. The Test usually happens to gather the hedge funds companies to join along.
Phase D is where we see Signs of Strength and could be followed by a Last Point of Supply for any companies to join along.
You could enter a trade in Phase C or Phase D only and you could even go on lower timeframes for better entries.
You have to have patiences when trading Wyckoff because you could have Re-accumulation instead of Accumulation. In our online courses, we'll teach you how you can identify the difference :)
Please share and support and let me know what you think in the comments section. Thanks !
Another Distribution On ETH?! Hello everyone!
As you can see in the chart after a small bounce, which is the AR we have lower lows and lower highs, which indicate a sign of weakness.
HOW DO I PLAY THIS TRADE?!
So, first i want to say that i speak in probabilities, so its possible that i will lose this trade, thats why i have a stop loss arround 3130. After we confirmed this sign of weakness i expect to be a UT next, i personally think that will be in the area where we was consolidating 2 days, after this i expect to go down and up again for UTAD or LPSY, could be higher than UT or lower. If this goes well, we will have a dump to fill the daily imbalance to 2718.
If you have another opinion, let me know in the comments, i suggest you to dont do like i say if u have another opinion of course.
Stay safu guys! I wish you good luck!
Did DOT Confirmed H&S?! Hello everyone!
As you can see in the chart we have a confirmed H&S and a wyckoff distribution, this distribution we can see at a lot of cryptocurrencies, like BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL... .
About indicators, we have a bearish divergence on daily which will indicate a possible dump.
Where the price will go?!
As you can see in the chart, we have a daily imbalance from 20.25 to 19, we can go under this price too, but i think we will have a little bounce from there.
This is my opinion and what i use for trading, i have considered trading basic analysis and smartmoney too.
Stay safu!
Good luck guys!
Will BITCOIN Will Go Down Again?! Hello everyone!
As we already know, this pump left a lot of imbalance, imbalance that must be filled, today i have been noticed that we are in a distribution, like you see in the chart, we formed a SOW, after the next SOW we can expect a markdown that will fill the imbalance left behind(which is at 40972-37430 big imbalance), after that i expect a pump at the zone where we consolidated 2 days, like in 4 december where imbalance from the beginning of the octomber was filled.
Of course can be 2 scenarious, the another one is to go 48180-50400 where we also left an imbalance, but i think that will not happen, because we are seeing a SIGN OF WEAKNESS. I think that we need to be patience and wait for the market to show us more signs about next move.
Also, indicators looks that we are in an overbought zone and we don't have a lot of strong to continue pumping.
Let me know if u have another opinion about BTC, or if you want to add something else too!
Good luck traders!
EURGBP Wyckoff distributionEURGBP is forming a Wyckoff distribution pattern.
Potential aggressive short entry from here, with 1:6 RRR to the support zone, and 1:11 to the first demand zone after confirmed breakout of the Wyckoff pattern.
Fantastic RRR means even if I get stopped a couple of times on the lower timeframes, and nail 1 good entry, the profit still will be substantial.
Let me know what do you think?
Will 50k Hold?Hi all,
Bitcoin managed to cloas the week above 50k. While this physcological level gives comfort, the real resistance is at the weekly 51.791 and we are below that level.
That said, consolidating under resistance is considered bullish, however, we don't know how price will react after passing this level.
The wyckoff distribution i have pointed out in my previous analysis still holds and if it plays out, we are looking at a LPSY moment as of now.
The upward moves are quite weak, not triggering any of my TOTT signals (and i have many)
So, longing here now would mean longing in to resistance, which is never a good idea. Last time i warned about this was at 67k :) Ofcourse it doesn't have to be the same, but given FED has declared the timeline for tapering and interest rate hikes by the end of March, i think we'll see a play until that time, but we don't know what composite man is about to play. Again, i think it's a mega distribution since last year October.
Patience is the most important skill to have right now. If you are long, use a stop loss or reduce your risk.
As always trade safe.
BITCOIN's Perfect WYCKOFF Pattern!Hey guys!
Hope all is well. These are sure times of uncertainty. Market crash? Recession? Supply Chain Issues? Collapse of Evergrande? Hyper Inflation? Central Bank Digital Currency? These are all factors deciding the market currently. Be patient - Bitcoin's rally's happen in a four year cycle. This is when emotions need to be taken out of the picture. We may see another couple of years of consolidation and accumulation before Bitcoin decides to rally again. I think we may see 20K next year as a spring for Bitcoin before the next rally - and mark my words, it will be a big one. We need a decentralised world, one where politicians can't control the supply of currency for self interest. Cryptocurrencies are the way, and it is for the people to decide.
I will keep updating this as we go, but for now - predictions on price action are silly.
Love, peace, Seb.
XAUUSD Wyckoff Distribution - In progress Distribution in progress following the recent marked up phase highlighted in my previous idea. Demand has been dominant up until now with weak rallies showing evidence of declining demand. The most recent price action failing to eclipse the buying climax on 13th Jan along with a decline below the mid-point of the TR.
Whist I will still remain wary of upthrust after distribution, I am expecting to see a further decline towards support and a successful break beginning the marked down phase. The immediate downside price objectives are 1810, 1802 and 1788.
I hope you found this useful, do leave your thoughts in a comment below.
As always, a 'like' and 'follow' provides encouragement to share further ideas.
Thank you for taking the time.
BeyondEdge
Your Edge Is Your Perception. Go Beyond.
GBP/USD Chart AnalysisLooking for a GBP sell off this week. Targeting the OB and POC for the overall volume control. The extension on the TP is targeting a large area of un-mitigated price from the previous bullish push to the new highs. This area has to be mitigated by the institutions at some point so they can close out of their sell orders at BE.