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T-distribution

BITCOIN → Manipulative ShortSqueeze. When to prepare for growth?BINANCE:BTCUSD is not falling below 50K, which is expected by many. The flagship continues to consolidate ( which has been going on for half a year now ) and accumulate potential at the expense of some traders or another, mostly at the expense of sellers. Why am I being positive? . In the second half of August, BTC tried to move into the realization phase and headed towards 70K, but ran into a block of limit orders ( resistance ) at 65K - MM is not ready to let the price go. Having formed a double top, the price returns to the range confirming the fact of false breakdown and liquidation, as a consequence of such actions MM has an interest - liquidity from below ( for this reason I am waiting for initial decline with subsequent growth ). The chart above shows the key zones and possible scenarios to pay attention to when forming your strategy There is no constructive reason for the formed fall and therefore this movement can be considered purely manipulative, the purpose of which may be to buy up the asset through panic selling as well as prolonged accumulation before realization. Resistance levels: 59600, 60500 Support levels: 58700, 57900, 57736, 56078 . The market is still strong but in a range. Any attempts to sell-off are aggressively bought out by whales ( liquidity withdrawal ). On W1-M1 a stop is forming after a strong rally, which is considered as a controlled consolidation within the bull cycle, which is far from ending. The high probability scenario of that technical nuance is an upward distribution of accumulation. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:BTCUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
42
Bitcoin’s Rounded Top [Wyckoff Distribution]: 5 Phases to KnowHello, Trading Community! Today, we dive into the fascinating world of the Wyckoff Distribution model as it applies to Bitcoin's current market structure. Please remember that this article is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as trading advice. While we explore potential scenarios, including the possibility of Bitcoin heading down to $30,000 or even $25,000, these claims are speculative and should be considered hypothetical. The Wyckoff Distribution Model: A Roadmap for Market Tops The Wyckoff Distribution model offers a comprehensive framework for understanding how major market players distribute their holdings before a significant downturn. It is divided into several phases: Phase A: The market begins to show preliminary signs of selling pressure after an extended uptrend. This is the first hint that the balance of power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Phase B: The market enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways as large investors gradually distribute their positions. Phase C: A deceptive breakout, known as the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), occurs here, often trapping unsuspecting retail traders. Phase D: The onset of a decline, marked by clear Signs of Weakness (SOW), indicates that the distribution phase is nearing its end. Phase E: The final phase, where the market confirms the distribution and continues to fall, marking the completion of the process. Breaking Down Bitcoin's Key Price Points Let's take a closer look at the crucial price points that have defined Bitcoin's current structure within the Wyckoff Distribution model: Buying Climax (BC) - $73,660 This is the pinnacle of buying activity, where demand reaches its peak before supply starts to dominate. For Bitcoin, this level marked the highest point in the current cycle before a significant sell-off began. Automatic Reaction (AR) - $60,795 Following the Buying Climax, the market experienced an Automatic Reaction—a sharp drop as sellers stepped in. This level is critical as it signifies the start of the distribution process. Upthrust (UT) - $71,180 The Upthrust represents a rally that tests the resistance near the Buying Climax. However, it fails to sustain those levels, hinting that the market's upward momentum is weakening. Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) - $71,680 The UTAD often serves as a bull trap, where the price makes a final push above the resistance only to quickly reverse. This move confirms that distribution is taking place. Sign of Weakness (SOW) - $54,344 After the UTAD, the market drops significantly, signaling a clear Sign of Weakness. This level demonstrates that sellers are gaining control, pushing the price to new lows. Last Point of Supply 1 (LPSY 1) - $70,040 The first Last Point of Supply (LPSY 1) is a weaker rally that fails to reach previous highs. This is a key indicator that the market's bullish momentum is fading, and distribution is nearing completion. Last Point of Supply 2 (LPSY 2) - $65,105 Currently, Bitcoin is in Phase E, at the LPSY 2 point. This level is crucial as it typically marks the final confirmation of distribution before a sustained downtrend. Navigating Phase E: The Final Act of Distribution As Bitcoin navigates through Phase E, the LPSY 2 level becomes a focal point. This phase is characterized by further price declines as the market confirms the distribution. Here’s what to watch for: Lower Highs and Lower Lows: Expect the price to continue forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish trend. Volume Patterns: During this phase, volume analysis becomes critical. Look for decreasing volume on upswings and increasing volume on downswings, which confirms the presence of distribution. Final Thoughts The Wyckoff Distribution model provides a structured way to understand how markets transition from bullish to bearish trends. With Bitcoin currently exhibiting a Rounded Top structure and sitting at LPSY 2 in Phase E, the evidence suggests that we may be on the cusp of further declines. By staying vigilant and analyzing key price levels and volume patterns, traders can better position themselves to navigate this challenging market environment. In this complex market phase, understanding the underlying forces at play can be the difference between protecting your capital and being caught off guard by the next big move. Stay tuned for more!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
5
ETHEREUM → Readiness for realization ↑ Target 3300 BINANCE:ETHUSD ETH is consolidating in front of strong resistance. Bulls do not let the price down beyond 0.5 fibo. amid Friday's news, the cryptocurrency market is reviving and ETH has high chances to pass through 2800. A false breakout of the resistance of the range is formed, but instead of falling, the coin is consolidating, which is generally one of the pre-breakout nuances. Technically, it would be an ideal condition for me to wait for a prolonged consolidation near 2780-2800 followed by a price advance towards the zone with a breakout target. The liquidation that took place earlier rid the market of an unnecessary part of speculators, after which the whales went into an active accumulation phase, now ETH shows positive preconditions of readiness to go to the intermediate high and resistance of the global range. Support levels: 2717, 0.5 fibo Resistance levels: 2780, 2817 The market is bullish, as evidenced by some indicators, technical indicators on the chart, as well as the fundamental background. Accordingly, in the mid-term I expect the price to come out of the consolidation 2780 - 2550 and most likely this exit will be accompanied by a breakout of resistance and growth to 3300. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:ETHUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
19
GOLD → We're up to 2500. What's next, up or down?FX:XAUUSD is updating its historical high due to fundamental reasons. At the moment the market is struggling for 2500, at the same time the dollar is showing the prerequisites of readiness to go south. Fundamentally, there is a lot of interest in gold for several reasons: Crisis in the Middle East, expectations of Iranian action. A shift in the policy dovish view of the economy by the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium. Traders are quite positive, in anticipation of Powell's comments on the economy and their impact. Technically, a strong bullish trend and the realization of accumulation is forming on D1. The price updates the high and closes Friday's session very promisingly (at the weekly and daily high) A price consolidation above 2510 will be a good starting point to the next psychological levels. Resistance levels: 2510, 2525, 2550 Support levels: 2495 Technically, the focus is on the 2510 - 2495 range. If a false breakout of resistance is formed, profit-taking or MM actions may provoke price decline to the imbalance zone before further growth. But, a confident consolidation of the price above the resistance may form an impulse to 2525. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
14
Lululemon: Downward Dog Days Ahead? - A Wyckoff Distr AnalysisINTRO I have been sitting on this idea for a while and finally decided to put the pen to the pad. For the past three years, there have been signs that Lululemon's stock may be destined for a decline. This trade idea will explore the potential for a downtrend using Wyckoff analysis, a technical analysis pattern used to identify trends within a market cycle. The Wyckoff Distribution theory suggests that large institutions subtly distribute their holdings and initiate short positions before a significant price decline. This distribution unfolds in five distinct phases, each with its own characteristics. In this article, I'll describe these phases and analyze how they might be seen in Lululemon's case. For reference, this is the schematic I will be comparing my LULU case to. The Setup The company's story began in 2008 with its founding. Like most companies, it was affected by the 2008 financial crisis and faced challenges in its performance. However, it recovered strongly over the next 3 years, with its stock price increasing by almost 3,700% from its low in 2009 to its high in 2012. From 2012 to 2018, the stock underperformed as its valuation took some time to catch up. During this period, LULU steadily improved its financial performance, attracting the attention of smart investors who began accumulating shares. Phase A The distribution phase marks the end of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, buyers have been dominant, but now we see evidence of institutional selling with the preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). The BC indicates the end of the uptrend as institutions freely unload shares. The low created after the BC is called the automatic reaction (AR). This low is important because it represents the lowest price at which institutions are willing to sell their shares. The AR and BC form our distribution channel, and there will be secondary tests (ST) of these ranges. Phase B Phase B functions to create momentum in preparation for a new downtrend. During this phase, institutions and large professional interests sell off their holdings and start taking short positions. This is typically marked by low-volume rallies and high-volume declines. Additionally, we may witness signs of weakness (SOW) and upthrusts (UT), which are further tests of supply and demand as institutions assess interest. Note the volume as the stock price advances and declines. Phase C Phase C is an optional phase that primarily serves as a test of the remaining demand. You can identify it by the UpThrust After Distribution (UTAD), which is a price move above the trading channel resistance that quickly reverses and closes back within the channel. It is a bull trap – it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality, it is intended to trick uninformed break-out traders. It is used to snag additional shares short at elevated prices before a decline. Note the volume spike to create the UTAD and the volume spike to take it away. Phase D In Phase D, there is growing evidence that the uptrend is coming to an end. Sellers take control, leading to a clear break of support or a decline below the midpoint of the trading channel after a UT or UTAD. During this phase, there are typically several weak rallies, each marked by the last point of supply (LPSY). Phase E The final phase of the cycle is Phase E. It depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the channel to the downside and supply is in control. This represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the newly formed downtrend are quickly washed with selling. We haven't entered Phase E yet, but the chart is currently aligning well with our expectations. Given that the pattern has taken 3 years to form, it will likely result in a longer-term short. I believe that targeting the 150s is reasonable if the analysis is accurate. I would appreciate hearing your thoughts on this.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by Decam9
9
NVIDIA updateRecently, test of finding a top turned out to be a success. However, after entering into an uptrend on lower timeframes, price had a sudden drop while it was nearing all-time highs. This puts in risk the first trade of the referenced idea at risk. The reason we get a sell signal is because: The recent raise in price action was not enough to overcome the downward movement of the correction. However, the 25 MA usually works as a key support-resistance. Therefore, it's currently being used as support, but if this support fails its likely price will return to the current lows where the 25 MA would most likely become resistance and would test price action before determining to create a new low or continue an uptrend. The best movement for technical uptrend health is a slight correction into current lows before forming a new uptrend. This movement will also be important for the SP:SPX as NASDAQ:NVDA holds a quite large share of the index at the moment. This could be the formations of the downtrend brought by the cyclicality of uptrends and downtrends. As it was mentioned in the referenced idea.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DarkMessiah777
4
BITCOIN → Intend to test 74K but what's next? ↑BINANCE:BTCUSD is strengthening by 25% from the intermediate bottom and after retesting the support of the classic “FLAG” pattern. The fundamental and technical background is positive enough to consider further price growth July 9 Idea: BITCOIN → Fear in the crowd is a bullish sign ↑ Flag and SFP Fundamental Situation: the market is waiting for the launch of ETH-ETF on July 23, which could be another positive lever for the cryptocurrency market. Trump, who has recently become a strong supporter of cryptocurrencies, is increasing his chances of re-election. If he wins, the market will take it very positively. Well, and other local nuances: High-ranking politicians in the U.S. are reconsidering their views on bitcoin. SEC is also smoothly changing its position towards cryptocurrencies. Technically, a classic bullish FLAG pattern is forming on d1. The nature of the range is consolidation. At the moment there is a high probability of retest of strong resistance 71700 or ATH retest, but only after the retest of these zones it will be possible to follow the formation of prerequisites for the breakout of global resistance 73800. Resistance levels: 67250, 71750 Support levels: 63800, 59300 Technically, the price is now in the channel 67250 - 63800. The situation is favorable for resistance breakout, which will open a new way to the nearest resistance. Now we can't say about possible ATH renewal. It is necessary to keep watching how the price will approach the key boundaries of the range. In the mid-term I consider a breakout of 67250 with further growth to 71700-73800. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:BTCUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
43
USDJPY → Weak dollar + intervention = bearish trend ↓FX:USDJPY breaks the 157.7 zone after a small consolidation. Powell's comments about more progressive deflation favor the market, the dollar is falling on this background and the end is not seen yet... Fundamentally, the weakening dollar and the ongoing interventions of the Central Bank of Japan have quite a strong impact on the exchange rate, but it is worth being careful. Previously, this market reaction was quickly bought out by traders who still have little faith in the continued strength of the JPY. Technically, if the dollar continues to liquidate, such a strong fall could bring the currency pair down to global lows. There is a strong liquidity zone ahead. Possible activation of orders in the risk zone, which may provoke a pullback before a further fall or a strong impulse, which without a pullback will knock out all market participants and the price will fly downward Resistance levels: 157.18, 157.7 Support levels: 154.5, 151.86 At the moment everything is obvious, fundamental and technical nuances are telling about further decline. We should pay attention to the nearest zone of liquidity and price reaction. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
GBPUSD → A favorable PCE could resume the bullish trend ↑FX:GBPUSD is forming a counter-trend correction amid the dollar recovery. Ahead of PCE, data may determine the medium-term outlook for the FOREX market Technically, the market is increasing bets that the PCE may show hints of lower inflation, which will generally increase the chances of a September interest rate cut in the US. This could be negative for the dollar and positive for the currency pair. But no one rules out an unpredictable outcome, against which the currency pair could decline to 1.277 Technically, I would pay attention to the resistance at 1.2894. A consolidation above this zone will confirm the phase of the bull market, against which the price may rise to 1.30 - 1.31. Resistance levels: 1.2898 Support levels: 1.2850 Fundamentally, things are not so bad. Favorable data can resume the trend after the correction phase, but it is still worth paying attention to the actual PCE figures and only then you can build a medium-term strategy Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GBPUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
1
GOLD → False break of bullish range support ↑FX:XAUUSD is forming a false breakdown of the previously mentioned range - 2390 - 2400. The return to the buying zone is forming, buyers can push the price to 2450 A reversal swing pattern is forming in relation to the support, which is evidence of buyers' strength. The fundamental background is still unstable, there are many nuances from the Fed and the US presidential race, the geopolitical background in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is relatively stable. Today there is no news and in general we can bet on the work of technical analysis. Technically, if the bulls hold the defense above 2400-2405, then in the medium term we should expect an upward movement towards local liquidity zones as well as towards the upper boundary of the range. Resistance levels: 2405, 2412, 2420 Support levels: 2400, 2392 The market confirms the presence of the range, it is not excluded that the price may go down, but at the moment the situation looks like the bulls are actively defending the lower boundary of the range, which determines the short-term and medium-term prospects.... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
GOLD → $2500 is the psychological target. What happens next?FX:XAUUSD is flying upwards after ATH breakout. Powell's comments were positive for the market, which is generally reflected in the dollar and gold. The fundamental and technical background is favorable Powell's comments about more progressive deflation are favorable for the market, the dollar is falling on this background and there is no end in sight yet. The Feds are considering the situation about prematurely lowering the interest rate without waiting for inflation to fall to 2%. The dollar index is moving into the sell-off phase, which allows gold to update ATH to 2482. Technically, on H1 resistance is formed at 2482, breakout and consolidation of the price above that level will provoke another rally, within which the price may reach 2500-2525-2550. There is a lot of support, but from above there is emptiness and there are no obstacles. Heated investor interest may lead to a more global ATH. Resistance levels: 2482, psychological 2500 Support levels: 2463, 2456, 2450 Formation of consolidation before continuation of growth is not excluded. In this case, the price may test the liquidity zone 2463, or imbalance zone located in the area of 2456-2450. But the trigger for the growth continuation will be the break of the indicated resistance. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
3
Mexico gives a sign of lifeAfter staying over a month at the lowest levels of the year, almost 10% down for the year, but finally the market has been able to recover. But the fundamental data that has been pushing this move up is quite bizarre. Perhaps we are out of the water and I hope so as some other positions in Mexican stocks will be affected by the performance of this recovery. So far the recent move looks promising as it has clearly broken above the 25MA which will now serve as support as price attempts to climb into a higher deviation. Successfully breaking above the 200MA would place the index out of trouble for the coming time. Let's hope for the best and If the USA rides into euphoria, perhaps Mexico can ride along as well. Additional to the analysis here, I give a great visual description of what my indicators tell me and how I read them. The same is true for the short term deviation, which helps me see the finer movements of price action.
BMV:ME
by DarkMessiah777
Does Fibonacci Really Work?It's hard to understand how the Fibonacci sequence presents itself in price action. I remember I used to think it was nothing more than lines drawn in a chart in a fancy manner. However, as I began to learn about probability distributions, I began to understand where the sequence reared its head into price action. Although I don't fully comprehend the theory behind the Fibonacci retracement, I did find a mathematical demonstration that proves price action and this sequence are related. You can find the demonstration in the link below. I'm unsure, but I believe this is peer-reviewed. www.researchgate.net However, you will notice that this approach is extremely different to the Fibonacci retracement. They look nothing alike. However, it's an interesting concept which could Shead light into understanding the fractal that governs price action. One of which is the Sierpinski triangle So does the Fibonacci retracement actually work? Well I don't know, but there is only one way to find out, so lets try it
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DarkMessiah777
SELL PNB spot cmp 133 target 110 SL 139Technically, there is a distribution going on and sign of exhaustion in strong rally. Multiple times the stock face correction from higher level and then later on it only managed to cross the previous high by some margin to fall again. This means big players selling their delivery. Fundamentally, its already overvalued with high PE and fairly valued Price to Book. So combined analysis says that it can fall to 110 levels soon with any support from market fall.
NSE:PNBShort
by PrashantDahale